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  • 1
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    Climate forcing of unprecedented intense-hurricane activity in the last 2000 years (2015)
    John Wiley & Sons
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2015. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Earth's Future 3 (2015): 49–65, doi:10.1002/2014EF000274.
    Description: How climate controls hurricane variability has critical implications for society is not well understood. In part, our understanding is hampered by the short and incomplete observational hurricane record. Here we present a synthesis of intense-hurricane activity from the western North Atlantic over the past two millennia, which is supported by a new, exceptionally well-resolved record from Salt Pond, Massachusetts (USA). At Salt Pond, three coarse grained event beds deposited in the historical interval are consistent with severe hurricanes in 1991 (Bob), 1675, and 1635 C.E., and provide modern analogs for 32 other prehistoric event beds. Two intervals of heightened frequency of event bed deposition between 1400 and 1675 C.E. (10 events) and 150 and 1150 C.E. (23 events), represent the local expression of coherent regional patterns in intense-hurricane–induced event beds. Our synthesis indicates that much of the western North Atlantic appears to have been active between 250 and 1150 C.E., with high levels of activity persisting in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico until 1400 C.E. This interval was one with relatively warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the main development region (MDR). A shift in activity to the North American east coast occurred ca. 1400 C.E., with more frequent severe hurricane strikes recorded from The Bahamas to New England between 1400 and 1675 C.E. A warm SST anomaly along the western North Atlantic, rather than within the MDR, likely contributed to the later active interval being restricted to the east coast.
    Description: Funding was provided by US National Science Foundation (awards 0903020 and 1356708), the Risk Prediction Initiative at the Bermuda Institute for Ocean Sciences (BIOS), US Department of Energy National Institute for Climate Change Research, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (award NA11OAR431010), and the Dalio Explore Fund.
    Keywords: Tropical cyclones ; Climate change ; Holocene ; Common era ; Sea surface temperature
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 2
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    Historically unprecedented Northern Gulf of Mexico hurricane activity from 650 to 1250 CE (2020)
    Nature Research
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Rodysill, J. R., Donnelly, J. P., Sullivan, R., Lane, P. D., Toomey, M., Woodruff, J. D., Hawkes, A. D., MacDonald, D., d'Entremont, N., McKeon, K., Wallace, E., & van Hengstum, P. J. Historically unprecedented Northern Gulf of Mexico hurricane activity from 650 to 1250 CE. Scientific Reports, 10(1), (2020): 19092. doi:10.1038/s41598-020-75874-0.
    Description: Hurricane Michael (2018) was the first Category 5 storm on record to make landfall on the Florida panhandle since at least 1851 CE (Common Era), and it resulted in the loss of 59 lives and $25 billion in damages across the southeastern U.S. This event placed a spotlight on recent intense (exceeding Category 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) hurricane landfalls, prompting questions about the natural range in variability of hurricane activity that the instrumental record is too short to address. Of particular interest is determining whether the frequency of recent intense hurricane landfalls in the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is within or outside the natural range of intense hurricane activity prior to 1851 CE. In this study, we identify intense hurricane landfalls in northwest Florida during the past 2000 years based on coarse anomaly event detection from two coastal lacustrine sediment archives. We identified a historically unprecedented period of heightened storm activity common to four Florida panhandle localities from 650 to 1250 CE and a shift to a relatively quiescent storm climate in the GOM spanning the past six centuries. Our study provides long-term context for events like Hurricane Michael and suggests that the observational period 1851 CE to present may underrepresent the natural range in landfalling hurricane activity.
    Description: Funding for this project was provided by the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) grant and NSF awards 0903020, 1902463, and 1854980 awarded to Jeffrey Donnelly, and the USGS Land Change Science Program.
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 3
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    Revising evidence of hurricane strikes on Abaco Island (the Bahamas) over the last 700 years (2020)
    Nature Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Winkler, T. S., van Hengstum, P. J., Donnelly, J. P., Wallace, E. J., Sullivan, R. M., MacDonald, D., & Albury, N. A. Revising evidence of hurricane strikes on Abaco Island (the Bahamas) over the last 700 years. Scientific Reports, 10(1), (2020): 16556, doi:10.1038/s41598-020-73132-x.
    Description: The northern Bahamas have experienced more frequent intense-hurricane impacts than almost anywhere else in the Atlantic since 1850 CE. In 2019, category 5 (Saffir-Simpson scale) Hurricane Dorian demonstrated the destructive potential of these natural hazards. Problematically, determining whether high hurricane activity levels remained constant through time is difficult given the short observational record (〈 170 years). We present a 700-year long, near-annually resolved stratigraphic record of hurricane passage near Thatchpoint Blue Hole (TPBH) on Abaco Island, The Bahamas. Using longer sediment cores (888 cm) and more reliable age-control, this study revises and temporally expands a previous study from TPBH that underestimated the sedimentation rate. TPBH records at least 13 ≥ category 2 hurricanes per century between 1500 to 1670 CE, which exceeds the 9 ≥ category 2 hurricanes per century within 50 km of TPBH since 1850 CE. The eastern United States also experienced frequent hurricanes from 1500 to 1670 CE, but frequency was depressed elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. This suggests that spatial heterogeneity in Atlantic hurricane activity since 1850 CE could have persisted throughout the last millennium. This heterogeneity is impacted by climatic and stochastic forcing, but additional high-resolution paleo-hurricane reconstructions are required to assess the mechanisms that impact regional variability.
    Description: Field support was provided by Jody Albury and the staff of Friends of the Environment in Marsh Harbour, The Bahamas, and technical support was provided was provided by M. Horgan and S. Molodtsov. Funding for this project was provided by NSF Awards OCE-1356509, OCE-1356708, OCE-1854917, OCE-1903616, and ICER-1854980. The open access publishing fees for this article have been covered by the Texas A&M University Open Access to Knowledge Fund (OAKFund), supported by the University Libraries.
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 4
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    Repeated century-scale droughts over the past 13,000 yr near the Hudson River watershed, USA (2011)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Quaternary Research 75 (2011): 523-530, doi:10.1016/j.yqres.2011.01.006.
    Description: Sediment and ground-penetrating radar data from Davis Pond near the Hudson River valley reveal past droughts in a historically humid region that presently supplies water to millions of people in and around New York City. A minimum of eleven sandy paleoshoreline deposits in the lake date from 13.4-0.6 cal ka BP. The deposits span 1500 to 200 years between bracketing radiocarbon dates, and intrude into lacustrine silts up to 9.0 m below the modern lake surface in a transect of six cores. Three lowstands, ca. 13.4-10.9, 9.2 and 8.2 cal ka BP indicate low regional moisture balance when low temperatures affected the North Atlantic region. Consistent with insolation trends, water levels rose from ca. 8.0 cal ka BP to present, but five low stands interrupted the rise and are likely associated with ocean-atmosphere interactions. Similar to evidence from other studies, the data from Davis Pond indicate repeated multi-century periods of prolonged or frequent droughts super-imposed on long-term regional trends toward high water levels. The patterns indicate that water supplies in this heavily populated region have continuously varied at multiple time scales, and confirm that humid regions such as the northeastern USA are more prone to severe drought than historically expected.
    Description: We thank The Ocean and Climate Change Institute at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and NSF Earth System History program grants (EAR-0602380 to J. Donnelly and EAR-0602408 to B. Shuman) for supporting this research.
    Keywords: Lake level ; Northeastern USA ; Hydroclimate ; Holocene
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Preprint
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 5
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    1,050 years of hurricane strikes on Long Island in the Bahamas (2021)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Wallace, E. J., Donnelly, J. P., van Hengstum, P. J., Winkler, T. S., McKeon, K., MacDonald, D., d'Entremont, N. E., Sullivan, R. M., Woodruff, J. D., Hawkes, A. D., & Maio, C. 1,050 years of hurricane strikes on long island in the Bahamas. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 36(3), (2021): e2020PA004156, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020PA004156.
    Description: Sedimentary records of past hurricane activity indicate centennial-scale periods over the past millennium with elevated hurricane activity. The search for the underlying mechanism behind these active hurricane periods is confounded by regional variations in their timing. Here, we present a new high resolution paleohurricane record from The Bahamas with a synthesis of published North Atlantic records over the past millennium. We reconstruct hurricane strikes over the past 1,050 years in sediment cores from a blue hole on Long Island in The Bahamas. Coarse-grained deposits in these cores date to the close passage of seven hurricanes over the historical interval. We find that the intensity and angle of approach of these historical storms plays an important role in inducing storm surge near the site. Our new record indicates four active hurricane periods on Long Island that conflict with published records on neighboring islands (Andros and Abaco Island). We demonstrate these three islands do not sample the same storms despite their proximity, and we compile these reconstructions together to create the first regional compilation of annually resolved paleohurricane records in The Bahamas. Integrating our Bahamian compilation with compiled records from the U.S. coastline indicates basin-wide increased storminess during the Medieval Warm Period. Afterward, the hurricane patterns in our Bahamian compilation match those reconstructed along the U.S. East Coast but not in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This disconnect may result from shifts in local environmental conditions in the North Atlantic or shifts in hurricane populations from straight-moving to recurving storms over the past millennium.
    Description: This work was funded by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship (to E. J. W.), the Dalio Explore Foundation, and National Science Foundation grant OCE-1356708 (to J. P. D. and P. J. vH.).
    Keywords: Bahamas ; Blue holes ; Carbonates ; Paleohurricanes ; Sediment cores
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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