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  • 1
    Publikationsdatum: 2021-09-08
    Beschreibung: Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) encompasses quantitative estimation of seismic hazard at a site by considering all plausible earthquake scenarios. The outcome of a PSHA is often reported as the mean rate of exceeding a specific ground motion intensity measure at a given site. This study attempts to perform PSHA for the western area of the city Naples (southern Italy) by employing the most advanced methods and new databases; namely, DISS3.2 (Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources) and CPTI15 (Parametric Catalogue of Italian Earthquakes). Seismogenic models include individual seismogenic structures/faults liable to generating major earthquakes with magnitude greater than 5.5, and background areal source model to evaluate the effect of earthquakes with magnitude less than 5.5. The PSHA is built up based on the long-term earthquake recurrence on seismogenic tectonic faults and the spatial distribution of historical earthquakes. Site amplification is considered based on seismic microzonation maps derived for the western area of Naples. The microzonation maps delineate expected levels of ground motion amplification based on reliable geological and geotechnical subsoil models. Hazard maps are derived for a number of return periods for ground-shaking in terms of peak ground acceleration and 5%-damped pseudo-spectral acceleration at a range of periods that are representative of the existing construction within the area. Detailed comparisons of the PSHA results with Italian national hazard maps and the code-based design spectra emphasize the importance of performing site-specific PSHA with explicit consideration of site effects.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 4743–4796
    Beschreibung: 5T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica
    Beschreibung: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
    Standort Signatur Einschränkungen Verfügbarkeit
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  • 2
    Publikationsdatum: 2022-02-24
    Beschreibung: Reliable seismic hazard analyses are crucial to mitigate seismic risk. When dealing with induced seismicity the standard Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has to be modified because of the peculiar characteristics of the induced events. In particular, the relative shallow depths, small magnitude, a correlation with field operations, and eventually non-Poisson recurrence time. In addition to the well-known problem of estimating the maximum expected magnitude, it is important to take into account how the industrial field operations affect the temporal and spatial distribution of the earthquakes. In fact, during specific stages of the project the seismicity may be hard to be modelled as a Poisson process—as usually done in the standard PSHA—and can cluster near the well or migrate toward hazardous known or—even worse—not known faults. Here we present a technique in which we modify the standard PSHA to compute time-dependent seismic hazard. The technique allows using non-Poisson models (BPT, Weibull, gamma and ETAS) whose parameters are fitted using the seismicity record during distinct stages of the field operations. As a test case, the procedure has been implemented by using data recorded at St. Gallen deep geothermal field, Switzerland, during fluid injection. The results suggest that seismic hazard analyses, using appropriate recurrence model, ground motion predictive equations, and maximum magnitude allow the expected ground-motion to be reliably predicted in the study area. The predictions can support site managers to decide how to proceed with the project avoiding adverse consequences.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 2747
    Beschreibung: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
    Standort Signatur Einschränkungen Verfügbarkeit
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  • 3
    Publikationsdatum: 2021-12-14
    Beschreibung: Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theoretical foundation, or commonly accepted methods. Moreover, applied methods have very different levels of maturity, from already advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for earthquake sources, to less mature probabilistic risk analysis. In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions. An extensive literature list allows for branching into diverse aspects of this scientific approach.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 628772
    Beschreibung: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
    Standort Signatur Einschränkungen Verfügbarkeit
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  • 4
    Publikationsdatum: 2023-01-16
    Beschreibung: Tsunamis constitute a significant hazard for European coastal populations, and the impact of tsunami events worldwide can extend well beyond the coastal regions directly affected. Understanding the complex mechanisms of tsunami generation, propagation, and inundation, as well as managing the tsunami risk, requires multidisciplinary research and infrastructures that cross national boundaries. Recent decades have seen both great advances in tsunami science and consolidation of the European tsunami research community. A recurring theme has been the need for a sustainable platform for coordinated tsunami community activities and a hub for tsunami services. Following about three years of preparation, in July 2021, the European tsunami community attained the status of Candidate Thematic Core Service (cTCS) within the European Plate Observing System (EPOS) Research Infrastructure. Within a transition period of three years, the Tsunami candidate TCS is anticipated to develop into a fully operational EPOS TCS. We here outline the path taken to reach this point, and the envisaged form of the future EPOS TCS Tsunami. Our cTCS is planned to be organised within four thematic pillars: (1) Support to Tsunami Service Providers, (2) Tsunami Data, (3) Numerical Models, and (4) Hazard and Risk Products. We outline how identified needs in tsunami science and tsunami risk mitigation will be addressed within this structure and how participation within EPOS will become an integration point for community development.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: DM215
    Beschreibung: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
    Standort Signatur Einschränkungen Verfügbarkeit
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  • 5
    Publikationsdatum: 2023-01-30
    Beschreibung: Very large tsunamis are associated with low probabilities of occurrence. In many parts of the world, these events have usually occurred in a distant time in the past. As a result, there is low risk perception and a lack of collective memories, making tsunami risk communication both challenging and complex. Furthermore, immense challenges lie ahead as population and risk exposure continue to increase in coastal areas. Through the last decades, tsunamis have caught coastal populations off-guard, providing evidence of lack of preparedness. Recent tsunamis, such as the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004, 2011 Tohoku and 2018 Palu, have shaped the way tsunami risk is perceived and acted upon. Based on lessons learned from a selection of past tsunami events, this paper aims to review the existing body of knowledge and the current challenges in tsunami risk communication, and to identify the gaps in the tsunami risk management methodologies. The important lessons provided by the past events call for strengthening community resilience and improvement in risk-informed actions and policy measures. This paper shows that research efforts related to tsunami risk communication remain fragmented. The analysis of tsunami risk together with a thorough understanding of risk communication gaps and challenges is indispensable towards developing and deploying comprehensive disaster risk reduction measures. Moving from a broad and interdisciplinary perspective, the paper suggests that probabilistic hazard and risk assessments could potentially contribute towards better science communication and improved planning and implementation of risk mitigation measures.
    Beschreibung: Published
    Beschreibung: 102771
    Beschreibung: 2SR TERREMOTI - Gestione delle emergenze sismiche e da maremoto
    Beschreibung: JCR Journal
    Schlagwort(e): Tsunami; Risk Perception; Communication; Italy; Mediterranean; Coastal Hazards; Sociology; Emergency Communication; Risk Management; Review; NEAM; UNESCO; Tsunami Ready ; 05.03. Educational, History of Science, Public Issues
    Repository-Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Materialart: article
    Standort Signatur Einschränkungen Verfügbarkeit
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