Abstract: Abstract. During winter 2015/2016, the Arctic stratosphere was characterized by extraordinarily low temperatures in connection with a very strong polar vortex and with the occurrence of extensive polar stratospheric clouds. From mid-December 2015 until mid-March 2016, the German research aircraft HALO (High Altitude and Long-Range Research Aircraft) was deployed to probe the lowermost stratosphere in the Arctic region within the POLSTRACC (Polar Stratosphere in a Changing Climate) mission. More than 20 flights have been conducted out of Kiruna, Sweden, and Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany, covering the whole winter period. Besides total reactive nitrogen (NOy), observations of nitrous oxide, nitric acid, ozone, and water were used for this study. Total reactive nitrogen and its partitioning between the gas and particle phases are key parameters for understanding processes controlling the ozone budget in the polar winter stratosphere. The vertical redistribution of total reactive nitrogen was evaluated by using tracer–tracer correlations (NOy–N2O and NOy–O3). The trace gases are well correlated as long as the NOy distribution is controlled by its gas-phase production from N2O. Deviations of the observed NOy from this correlation indicate the influence of heterogeneous processes. In early winter no such deviations have been observed. In January, however, air masses with extensive nitrification were encountered at altitudes between 12 and 15 km. The excess NOy amounted to about 6 ppb. During several flights, along with gas-phase nitrification, indications for extensive occurrence of nitric acid containing particles at flight altitude were found. These observations support the assumption of sedimentation and subsequent evaporation of nitric acid-containing particles, leading to redistribution of total reactive nitrogen at lower altitudes. Remnants of nitrified air masses have been observed until mid-March. Between the end of February and mid-March, denitrified air masses have also been observed in connection with high potential temperatures. This indicates the downward transport of air masses that have been denitrified during the earlier winter phase. Using tracer–tracer correlations, missing total reactive nitrogen was estimated to amount to 6 ppb. Further, indications of transport and mixing of these processed air masses outside the vortex have been found, contributing to the chemical budget of the winter lowermost stratosphere. Observations within POLSTRACC, at the bottom of the vortex, reflect heterogeneous processes from the overlying Arctic winter stratosphere. The comparison of the observations with CLaMS model simulations confirm and complete the picture arising from the present measurements. The simulations confirm that the ensemble of all observations is representative of the vortex-wide vertical NOy redistribution.

Abstract: —J. BLUNDEN, T. BOYER, AND E. BARTOW-GILLIES Earth’s global climate system is vast, complex, and intricately interrelated. Many areas are influenced by global-scale phenomena, including the “triple dip” La Niña conditions that prevailed in the eastern Pacific Ocean nearly continuously from mid-2020 through all of 2022; by regional phenomena such as the positive winter and summer North Atlantic Oscillation that impacted weather in parts the Northern Hemisphere and the negative Indian Ocean dipole that impacted weather in parts of the Southern Hemisphere; and by more localized systems such as high-pressure heat domes that caused extreme heat in different areas of the world. Underlying all these natural short-term variabilities are long-term climate trends due to continuous increases since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the atmospheric concentrations of Earth’s major greenhouse gases. In 2022, the annual global average carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere rose to 417.1±0.1 ppm, which is 50% greater than the pre-industrial level. Global mean tropospheric methane abundance was 165% higher than its pre-industrial level, and nitrous oxide was 24% higher. All three gases set new record-high atmospheric concentration levels in 2022. Sea-surface temperature patterns in the tropical Pacific characteristic of La Niña and attendant atmospheric patterns tend to mitigate atmospheric heat gain at the global scale, but the annual global surface temperature across land and oceans was still among the six highest in records dating as far back as the mid-1800s. It was the warmest La Niña year on record. Many areas observed record or near-record heat. Europe as a whole observed its second-warmest year on record, with sixteen individual countries observing record warmth at the national scale. Records were shattered across the continent during the summer months as heatwaves plagued the region. On 18 July, 104 stations in France broke their all-time records. One day later, England recorded a temperature of 40°C for the first time ever. China experienced its second-warmest year and warmest summer on record. In the Southern Hemisphere, the average temperature across New Zealand reached a record high for the second year in a row. While Australia’s annual temperature was slightly below the 1991–2020 average, Onslow Airport in Western Australia reached 50.7°C on 13 January, equaling Australia's highest temperature on record. While fewer in number and locations than record-high temperatures, record cold was also observed during the year. Southern Africa had its coldest August on record, with minimum temperatures as much as 5°C below normal over Angola, western Zambia, and northern Namibia. Cold outbreaks in the first half of December led to many record-low daily minimum temperature records in eastern Australia. The effects of rising temperatures and extreme heat were apparent across the Northern Hemisphere, where snow-cover extent by June 2022 was the third smallest in the 56-year record, and the seasonal duration of lake ice cover was the fourth shortest since 1980. More frequent and intense heatwaves contributed to the second-greatest average mass balance loss for Alpine glaciers around the world since the start of the record in 1970. Glaciers in the Swiss Alps lost a record 6% of their volume. In South America, the combination of drought and heat left many central Andean glaciers snow free by mid-summer in early 2022; glacial ice has a much lower albedo than snow, leading to accelerated heating of the glacier. Across the global cryosphere, permafrost temperatures continued to reach record highs at many high-latitude and mountain locations. In the high northern latitudes, the annual surface-air temperature across the Arctic was the fifth highest in the 123-year record. The seasonal Arctic minimum sea-ice extent, typically reached in September, was the 11th-smallest in the 43-year record; however, the amount of multiyear ice—ice that survives at least one summer melt season—remaining in the Arctic continued to decline. Since 2012, the Arctic has been nearly devoid of ice more than four years old. In Antarctica, an unusually large amount of snow and ice fell over the continent in 2022 due to several landfalling atmospheric rivers, which contributed to the highest annual surface mass balance, 15% to 16% above the 1991–2020 normal, since the start of two reanalyses records dating to 1980. It was the second-warmest year on record for all five of the long-term staffed weather stations on the Antarctic Peninsula. In East Antarctica, a heatwave event led to a new all-time record-high temperature of −9.4°C—44°C above the March average—on 18 March at Dome C. This was followed by the collapse of the critically unstable Conger Ice Shelf. More than 100 daily low sea-ice extent and sea-ice area records were set in 2022, including two new all-time annual record lows in net sea-ice extent and area in February. Across the world’s oceans, global mean sea level was record high for the 11th consecutive year, reaching 101.2 mm above the 1993 average when satellite altimetry measurements began, an increase of 3.3±0.7 over 2021. Globally-averaged ocean heat content was also record high in 2022, while the global sea-surface temperature was the sixth highest on record, equal with 2018. Approximately 58% of the ocean surface experienced at least one marine heatwave in 2022. In the Bay of Plenty, New Zealand’s longest continuous marine heatwave was recorded. A total of 85 named tropical storms were observed during the Northern and Southern Hemisphere storm seasons, close to the 1991–2020 average of 87. There were three Category 5 tropical cyclones across the globe—two in the western North Pacific and one in the North Atlantic. This was the fewest Category 5 storms globally since 2017. Globally, the accumulated cyclone energy was the lowest since reliable records began in 1981. Regardless, some storms caused massive damage. In the North Atlantic, Hurricane Fiona became the most intense and most destructive tropical or post-tropical cyclone in Atlantic Canada’s history, while major Hurricane Ian killed more than 100 people and became the third costliest disaster in the United States, causing damage estimated at $113 billion U.S. dollars. In the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Batsirai dropped 2044 mm of rain at Commerson Crater in Réunion. The storm also impacted Madagascar, where 121 fatalities were reported. As is typical, some areas around the world were notably dry in 2022 and some were notably wet. In August, record high areas of land across the globe (6.2%) were experiencing extreme drought. Overall, 29% of land experienced moderate or worse categories of drought during the year. The largest drought footprint in the contiguous United States since 2012 (63%) was observed in late October. The record-breaking megadrought of central Chile continued in its 13th consecutive year, and 80-year record-low river levels in northern Argentina and Paraguay disrupted fluvial transport. In China, the Yangtze River reached record-low values. Much of equatorial eastern Africa had five consecutive below-normal rainy seasons by the end of 2022, with some areas receiving record-low precipitation totals for the year. This ongoing 2.5-year drought is the most extensive and persistent drought event in decades, and led to crop failure, millions of livestock deaths, water scarcity, and inflated prices for staple food items. In South Asia, Pakistan received around three times its normal volume of monsoon precipitation in August, with some regions receiving up to eight times their expected monthly totals. Resulting floods affected over 30 million people, caused over 1700 fatalities, led to major crop and property losses, and was recorded as one of the world’s costliest natural disasters of all time. Near Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Petrópolis received 530 mm in 24 hours on 15 February, about 2.5 times the monthly February average, leading to the worst disaster in the city since 1931 with over 230 fatalities. On 14–15 January, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai submarine volcano in the South Pacific erupted multiple times. The injection of water into the atmosphere was unprecedented in both magnitude—far exceeding any previous values in the 17-year satellite record—and altitude as it penetrated into the mesosphere. The amount of water injected into the stratosphere is estimated to be 146±5 Terragrams, or ∼10% of the total amount in the stratosphere. It may take several years for the water plume to dissipate, and it is currently unknown whether this eruption will have any long-term climate effect.

Abstract: Abstract. We present data from winter 2015–2016, which were measured during the POLSTRACC (The Polar Stratosphere in a Changing Climate) aircraft campaign between December 2015 and March 2016 in the Arctic upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). The focus of this work is on the role of transport and mixing between aged and potentially chemically processed air masses from the stratosphere which have midlatitude and low-latitude air mass fractions with small transit times originating at the tropical lower stratosphere. By combining measurements of CO, N2O and SF6 we estimate the evolution of the relative contributions of transport and mixing to the UTLS composition over the course of the winter. We find an increasing influence of aged stratospheric air partly from the vortex as indicated by decreasing N2O and SF6 values over the course of the winter in the extratropical lower and lowermost stratosphere between Θ=360 K and Θ=410 K over the North Atlantic and the European Arctic. Surprisingly we also found a mean increase in CO of (3.00 ± 1.64) ppbV from January to March relative to N2O in the lower stratosphere. We show that this increase in CO is consistent with an increased mixing of tropospheric air as part of the fast transport mechanism in the lower stratosphere surf zone. The analysed air masses were partly affected by air masses which originated at the tropical tropopause and were quasi-horizontally mixed into higher latitudes. This increase in the tropospheric air fraction partly compensates for ageing of the UTLS due to the diabatic descent of air masses from the vortex by horizontally mixed, tropospheric-influenced air masses. This is consistent with simulated age spectra from the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS), which show a respective fractional increase in tropospheric air with transit times under 6 months and a simultaneous increase in aged air from upper stratospheric and vortex regions with transit times longer than 2 years. We thus conclude that the lowermost stratosphere in winter 2015–2016 was affected by aged air from the upper stratosphere and vortex region. These air masses were significantly affected by increased mixing from the lower latitudes, which led to a simultaneous increase in the fraction of young air in the lowermost Arctic stratosphere by 6 % from January to March 2016.

Abstract: Abstract. Activated chlorine compounds in the polar winter stratosphere drive catalytic cycles that deplete ozone and methane, whose abundances are highly relevant to the evolution of global climate. The present work introduces a novel dataset of in situ measurements of relevant chlorine species in the lowermost Arctic stratosphere from the aircraft mission POLSTRACC–GW-LCYCLE–SALSA during winter 2015/2016. The major stages of chemical evolution of the lower polar vortex are presented in a consistent series of high-resolution mass spectrometric observations of HCl and ClONO2. Simultaneous measurements of CFC-12 are used to derive total inorganic chlorine (Cly) and active chlorine (ClOx). The new data highlight an altitude dependence of the pathway for chlorine deactivation in the lowermost vortex with HCl dominating below the 380 K isentropic surface and ClONO2 prevailing above. Further, we show that the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) is generally able to reproduce the chemical evolution of the lower polar vortex chlorine budget, except for a bias in HCl concentrations. The model is used to relate local measurements to the vortex-wide evolution. The results are aimed at fostering our understanding of the climate impact of chlorine chemistry, providing new observational data to complement satellite data and assess model performance in the climate-sensitive upper troposphere and lower stratosphere region.

Abstract: Lu's "cosmic-ray-driven electron-induced reaction (CRE) theory" is based on the assumption that the CRE reaction of halogenated molecules (e.g., chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), HCl, ClONO 2 ) adsorbed or trapped in polar stratospheric clouds in the winter polar stratosphere is the key step in forming photoactive halogen species that are the cause of the springtime ozone hole. This theory has been extended to a warming theory of halogenated molecules for climate change. In this comment, we discuss the chemical and physical foundations of these theories and the conclusions derived from the theories. First, it is unclear whether the loss rates of halogenated molecules induced by dissociative electron attachment (DEA) observed in the laboratory can also be interpreted as atmospheric loss rates, but even if this were the case, the impact of DEA-induced reactions on polar chlorine activation and ozone loss in the stratosphere is limited. Second, we falsify several conclusions that are reported on the basis of the CRE theory: There is no polar ozone loss in darkness, there is no apparent 11-year periodicity in polar total ozone measurements, the age of air in the polar lower stratosphere is much older than 1–2 years, and the reported detection of a pronounced recovery (by about 20–25%) in Antarctic total ozone measurements by the year 2010 is in error. There are also conclusions about the future development of sea ice and global sea level which are fundamentally flawed because Archimedes' principle is neglected. Many elements of the CRE theory are based solely on correlations between certain datasets which are no substitute for providing physical and chemical mechanisms causing a particular behavior noticeable in observations. In summary, the CRE theory cannot be considered as an independent, alternative mechanism for polar stratospheric ozone loss and the conclusions on recent and future surface temperature and global sea level change do not have a physical basis.