Description: Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections (e.g. those run during the ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives) have shown that ice sheet initial conditions have a large effect on the projections and give rise to important uncertainties. The goal of this initMIP-Greenland intercomparison exercise is to compare, evaluate, and improve the initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community and to estimate the associated uncertainties in modelled mass changes. initMIP-Greenland is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6), which is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the ice sheets. Two experiments for the large-scale Greenland ice sheet have been designed to allow intercomparison between participating models of (1) the initial present-day state of the ice sheet and (2) the response in two idealised forward experiments. The forward experiments serve to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without additional forcing) and in response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly); they should not be interpreted as sea-level projections. We present and discuss results that highlight the diversity of data sets, boundary conditions, and initialisation techniques used in the community to generate initial states of the Greenland ice sheet. We find good agreement across the ensemble for the dynamic response to surface mass balance changes in areas where the simulated ice sheets overlap but differences arising from the initial size of the ice sheet. The model drift in the control experiment is reduced for models that participated in earlier intercomparison exercises.

Description: Ice sheet numerical modeling is an important tool to estimate the dynamic contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to sea level rise over the coming centuries. The influence of initial conditions on ice sheet model simulations, however, is still unclear. To better understand this influence, an initial state intercomparison exercise (initMIP) has been developed to compare, evaluate, and improve initialization procedures and estimate their impact on century-scale simulations. initMIP is the first set of experiments of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), which is the primary Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) activity focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Following initMIP-Greenland, initMIP-Antarctica has been designed to explore uncertainties associated with model initialization and spin-up and to evaluate the impact of changes in external forcings. Starting from the state of the Antarctic ice sheet at the end of the initialization procedure, three forward experiments are each run for 100 years: a control run, a run with a surface mass balance anomaly, and a run with a basal melting anomaly beneath floating ice. This study presents the results of initMIP-Antarctica from 25 simulations performed by 16 international modeling groups. The submitted results use different initial conditions and initialization methods, as well as ice flow model parameters and reference external forcings. We find a good agreement among model responses to the surface mass balance anomaly but large variations in responses to the basal melting anomaly. These variations can be attributed to differences in the extent of ice shelves and their upstream tributaries, the numerical treatment of grounding line, and the initial ocean conditions applied, suggesting that ongoing efforts to better represent ice shelves in continental-scale models should continue.

Description: Antarctica is fringed by floating ice shelves through which more than 80% of the overall ice is discharged. These ice shelves provide the main interface between the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the surrounding ocean. Virtually all ice shelves are either laterally constrained by embayments or locally reground on topographic highs causing the formation of ice rises. In both cases the locally enhanced friction is transmitted upstream, resulting in a restraining force that decelerates ice discharge and controls rates of sea-level rise. As ice rises are typically on the order of ten sof kilometers in diameter, they are usually not resolved, both in the observations and the physical approximations,in large-scale ice-sheet models. In addition to their stabilising influence, ice rises also provide a proxy for stable ice-sheet condition in the past as they archive their own evolution in their stratigraphy, providing the opportunity to derive a Pan-Antarctic archive for the deglaciation history. To adequately simulate ice rise evolution, the full stress balance needs to be considered including the full coupling of ice sheet, ice shelf, and ice rise. Here, we use the Full-Stokes ice-sheet model Elmer/Ice for the Ekström Ice Shelf embayment in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, to study the effect of ice rises on the overall stability of the ice sheet. We initialise the model for prognostic simulations using today’s surface velocity to invert for basal drag and ice-shelf rigidity in full Stokes. To account for inconsistencies in the input data we relax the initial geometry over 10 years resulting in a quasi-steady state which stays close to today’s observations. As a first application of this 3D model including the fully coupled system with a dynamic grounding line, we derive erosion rates for the outlet glaciers of the Ekström Ice Shelf embayment, revealing moderate rates of up to∼0.75 mm/yr, using published sliding-erosion ratios from others areas. This will be compared to sedimentary structures derived from seismic measurements. Our perturbation experiments of the Ekström Ice Shelf embayment will investigate the effect of changing atmospheric/oceanic conditions on ice-rise evolution and divide migration using for the first time a fully coupled 3D ice-sheet model. This approach will permit to unambiguously show if and how much changes in external forcing influence divide position and internal stratigraphy, a proxy that has been widely used to deduce stable ice-flow and grounding-line conditions, but from studies that either use simplified model physics or omit the coupling between ice rise and ice shelf. Our novel modelling set-up will help to unravel the importance of ice rises for the past and future timing of sea-level rise, and represents a first step towards using ice rises as a Pan-Antarctic archive to constrain paleo ice-sheet simulations.

Description: The majority of Antarctic ice shelves are bounded by grounded ice rises. These ice rises exhibit local flow fields that partially oppose the flow of the surrounding ice shelves. Formation of ice rises is accompanied by a characteristic upward-arching internal stratigraphy (“Raymond arches”), whose geometry can be analysed to infer information about past ice-sheet changes in areas where other archives such as rock outcrops are missing. Here we present an improved modelling framework to study ice-rise evolution using a satellite-velocity calibrated, isothermal, and isotropic 3-D full-Stokes model including grounding-line dynamics at the required mesh resolution (〈500 m). This overcomes limitations of previous studies where ice-rise modelling has been restricted to 2-D and excluded the coupling between the ice shelf and ice rise. We apply the model to the Ekström Ice Shelf, Antarctica, containing two ice rises. Our simulations investigate the effect of surface mass balance and ocean perturbations onto ice-rise divide position and interpret possible resulting unique Raymond arch geometries. Our results show that changes in the surface mass balance result in immediate and sustained divide migration (〉2.0 m yr−1) of up to 3.5 km. In contrast, instantaneous ice-shelf disintegration causes a short-lived and delayed (by 60–100 years) response of smaller magnitude (〈0.75 m yr−1). The model tracks migration of a triple junction and synchronous ice-divide migration in both ice rises with similar magnitude but differing rates. The model is suitable for glacial/interglacial simulations on the catchment scale, providing the next step forward to unravel the ice-dynamic history stored in ice rises all around Antarctica.

Description: Fabric (distribution of crystallographic orientations) profile along the full NEEM ice core, Greenland, is presented in this work. Data were measured in the field by an Automatic Ice Texture Analyzer every 10 m, from 33 m down to 2461 m depth. The fabric evolves from a slightly anisotropic fabric at the top, toward a strong single maximum at about 2300 m, which is typical of a deformation pattern mostly driven by uniaxial compression and simple shearing. A sharp increase in the fabric strengthening is observed at the Holocene to Wisconsin climatic transition. A similar strengthening, toward an anisotropic single maximum-type fabric, has been observed in several ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica, and can be attributed to a positive feedback between changes in ice viscosity at the climatic transition, and the impact of a shear component of stress. Centimeter scale abrupt texture (fabric and microstructure) variations are observed in the bottom part of the core. Their positions are in good agreement with the folding hypothesis used for a climatic reconstruction by Dahl-Jensen and co authors (2013). Comparison is made to two others ice cores drilled along the same ridge; the GRIP ice core drilled at the summit of the ice sheet, and the NorthGRIP ice core, drilled 325 km to the NNW of the summit along the ridge, and 365 km upstream from NEEM. The fabric profile clearly reflects the increase in shear deformation when moving NW along the ridge from GRIP to NorthGRIP and NEEM. The difference in fabric profiles between NEEM and NorthGRIP also evidences a stronger lateral extension associated with a sharper ridge at NorthGRIP. References: Dahl-Jensen, D. and 120 co-authors. Eemian interglacial reconstructed from a Greenland folded ice core, Nature, 493, 489–493, 2013.

Description: Meltwater beneath the polar ice sheets drains, in part, through subglacial conduits. Landforms created by such drainages are abundant in areas formerly covered by ice sheets during the last glacial maximum. However, observations of subglacial conduit dynamics under a contemporary ice sheet are lacking. We present results from ice-penetrating radar to infer the existence of subglacial conduits upstream of the grounding line of Roi Baudouin Ice Shelf, Antarctica. The conduits are aligned with ice-shelf channels, and underlain by esker ridges formed from sediment deposition due to reduced water outflow speed near the grounding line. In turn, the eskers modify localice flow to initiate the bottom topography of the ice-shelf channels, and create small surface ridges extending onto the shelf. Relict features on the shelf are interpreted to indicate a history of these interactions and variability of past subglacial drainages. Because ice-shelf channels are loci where intense melting occurs to thin an ice shelf, these findings expose a novel link between subglacial drainage, sedimentation, and ice-shelf stability. To investigate the role of sediment transport beneath ice sheets further, we model the sheet-shelf system ofthe Ekstömisen catchment, Antarctica. A 3D finite element model (Elmer/ICE) is used to solve the transients full Stokes equation for isotropic, isothermal ice with a dynamic grounding line. We initialize the model with surface topography from the TanDEM-X satellites and by inverting simultaneously for ice viscosity and basaldrag using present-day surface velocities. Results produce a flow field which is consitent with sattelite and on-site observations. Solving the age-depth relationship allows comparison with radar isochrones from airborne data, and gives information about the atmospheric/dynamic history of this sector. The flow field will eventually be used to identify potential sediment sources and sinks which we compare with more than 400 km of seismic profiles collected over the floating ice shelves and the grounded ice sheet.

Description: Ice sheet numerical modeling is an important tool to estimate the dynamic contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to sea level rise over the coming centuries. The influence of initial conditions on ice sheet model simulations, however, is still unclear. To better understand this influence, an initial state intercomparison exercise (initMIP) has been developed to compare, evaluate, and improve initialization procedures and estimate their impact on century-scale simulations. initMIP is the first set of experiments of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), which is the primary Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) activity focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Following initMIP-Greenland, initMIP-Antarctica has been designed to explore uncertainties associated with model initialization and spin-up and to evaluate the impact of changes in external forcings. Starting from the state of the Antarctic ice sheet at the end of the initialization procedure, three forward experiments are each run for 100 years: a control run, a run with a surface mass balance anomaly, and a run with a basal melting anomaly beneath floating ice. This study presents the results of initMIP-Antarctica from 25 simulations performed by 16 international modeling groups. The submitted results use different initial conditions and initialization methods, as well as ice flow model parameters and reference external forcings. We find a good agreement among model responses to the surface mass balance anomaly but large variations in responses to the basal melting anomaly. These variations can be attributed to differences in the extent of ice shelves and their upstream tributaries, the numerical treatment of grounding line, and the initial ocean conditions applied, suggesting that ongoing efforts to better represent ice shelves in continental-scale models should continue.

Description: Antarctica's ice shelves modulate the grounded ice flow, and weakening of ice shelves due to climate forcing will decrease their ‘buttressing’ effect, causing a response in the grounded ice. While the processes governing ice-shelf weakening are complex, uncertainties in the response of the grounded ice sheet are also difficult to assess. The Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project (ABUMIP) compares ice-sheet model responses to decrease in buttressing by investigating the ‘end-member’ scenario of total and sustained loss of ice shelves. Although unrealistic, this scenario enables gauging the sensitivity of an ensemble of 15 ice-sheet models to a total loss of buttressing, hence exhibiting the full potential of marine ice-sheet instability. All models predict that this scenario leads to multi-metre (1–12 m) sea-level rise over 500 years from present day. West Antarctic ice sheet collapse alone leads to a 1.91–5.08 m sea-level rise due to the marine ice-sheet instability. Mass loss rates are a strong function of the sliding/friction law, with plastic laws cause a further destabilization of the Aurora and Wilkes Subglacial Basins, East Antarctica. Improvements to marine ice-sheet models have greatly reduced variability between modelled ice-sheet responses to extreme ice-shelf loss, e.g. compared to the SeaRISE assessments.