Note: Front Cover -- Drought Early Warning and Forecasting -- Copyright Page -- Dedication -- Contents -- Foreword -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- 1 Droughts, governance, disasters, and response systems -- 1.1 20th-century droughts-disasters and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation -- 1.2 21st-century droughts-developing effective early warning systems -- References -- 2 Drought early warning-definitions, challenges, and opportunities -- 2.1 Definitions-supply and demand, the many flavors of "dry" -- 2.2 Droughts-when water demand exceeds water supply -- 2.3 Slow-onset disasters -- 2.4 Quantifying drought magnitude in multiple dimensions -- 2.5 Impact-based sectoral or disciplinary definitions of drought -- 2.6 Contrasting recent U.S. and southern African droughts -- 2.7 Chapter review -- References -- 3 Drought early warning systems -- 3.1 The U.S. National Integrated Drought Information System -- 3.2 The Famine Early Warning Systems Network -- 3.3 Famine Early Warning Systems Network Food Security Outlooks -- 3.4 Multistage early warning-an Ethiopia example -- References -- Further reading -- 4 Tools of the trade 1-weather and climate forecasts -- 4.1 Examples of operational drought forecasting systems -- 4.1.1 U.S. Climate Prediction Center's monthly and seasonal drought outlook -- 4.1.2 Famine Early Warning Systems Network food insecurity outlook -- 4.1.3 Miscellaneous application of weather and climate forecasts for drought forecasting -- 4.2 Methods of weather and climate forecasts -- 4.2.1 Climatological forecasts -- 4.2.2 Persistence-based forecasts -- 4.2.3 Analog forecasts -- 4.2.4 Statistical forecasts -- 4.2.5 Dynamical forecasting -- 4.3 Sources of weather and climate forecast skill -- 4.4 Summary -- References -- Further reading -- 5 Tools of the trade 2-land surface models -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 An overview of land surface models. , 5.3 Operational land surface models-based drought monitors -- 5.3.1 National Center for Environmental Prediction's North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) drought monitor -- 5.3.2 Africa Flood and Drought monitor -- 5.3.3 Global soil moisture monitoring -- 5.3.4 The Famine Early Warning Systems Network land data assimilation system -- 5.4 Limitations of drought monitoring using land surface models -- 5.5 Summary -- References -- 6 Tools of the trade 3-mapping exposure and vulnerability -- 6.1 Exposure and vulnerability -- 6.1.1 Exposure-an example for East Africa -- 6.1.2 Vulnerability -- 6.1.3 An Ethiopia case study -- 6.2 Conclusion -- References -- 7 Theory-understanding atmospheric demand in a warming world -- 7.1 Background -- 7.2 Reference evapotranspiration resistance terms -- 7.3 Defining reference crop evapotranspiration -- 7.4 The FAO 56 Penman-Monteith formulation -- 7.5 Temperature alone is insufficient to estimate reference evapotranspiration -- 7.6 Reference evapotranspiration decompositions and Morton's complementary hypothesis -- 7.7 Spatiotemporal variations in reference evapotranspiration and actual evapotranspiration, and their relationship to vuln... -- References -- 8 Theory-indices for measuring drought severity -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.1.1 Consider multiple expressions of each individual data source -- 8.2 Length of record and nonstationary systematic errors -- 8.2.1 Frequently used satellite and "combination" drought indicators and indices -- 8.3 Per capita water availability -- 8.4 Summary and discussion -- References -- 9 Sources of drought early warning skill, staged prediction systems, and an example for Somalia -- 9.1 The ocean as a source of skill -- 9.2 Skill from persistent atmospheric conditions -- 9.3 Predictive skill from the land surface. , 9.4 Staged opportunities for prediction support defense-in-depth -- 9.4.1 Stage 1: long-lead climate forecast -- 9.4.2 Stage 2: short-lead climate forecasts -- 9.4.3 Stage 3: mid-season climate/weather forecasts -- 9.4.4 Stage 4: late-season impact assessments -- 9.5 Summary: staged strategies for effective early warning -- 9.6 Conclusion -- References -- 10 Practice-evaluating forecast skill -- 10.1 Introduction -- 10.2 Deterministic forecast skill scores -- 10.2.1 Pearson's correlation -- 10.2.1.1 Higher skill at lower lead -- 10.2.1.2 Lower skill in forecasting terrestrial precipitation -- 10.2.2 Spearman's rank correlation -- 10.2.3 Equitable threat score (Gilbert skill score) -- 10.3 Probabilistic forecast skill scores -- 10.3.1 Brier skill score -- 10.3.2 Ranked probability skill score -- 10.3.3 Reliability diagram -- 10.4 Summary -- References -- 11 Practice-integrating observations and climate forecasts -- 11.1 Approach -- 11.2 Bias-correction and downscaling methods -- 11.2.1 Bias-correction and spatial downscaling method -- 11.2.1.1 Bias-correction -- 11.2.1.2 Spatial downscaling -- 11.2.2 Constructed analog method -- 11.2.3 Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs -- 11.2.4 Bayesian merging -- 11.3 An example: The NASA Hydrological and Forecast Analysis System -- 11.4 Summary -- References -- 12 Practice-actionable information and decision-making networks -- 12.1 Actionable information and the three pillars -- 12.2 Actionable information and decision-making networks-an example from famine early warning in East Africa -- 12.3 Conclusion -- References -- 13 Final thoughts -- References -- Index -- Back Cover.

Note: Cover -- Half-title -- Title page -- Copyright information -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- 1 Climate Extremes, Climate Attribution, Extreme Event Attribution -- Introduction -- Exploring Recent Extremes -- Extreme Event Attribution and Prediction -- Book Structure and Intent -- 2 Welcome to an Awesome Planet: A Series of Delicate Balances Support Earth's Fragile Flame -- Enabling Occurrence 1: Balanced Dark Energy and Gravity -- Enabling Occurrence 2: A Green Galaxy -- Enabling Occurrence 3: Good Galactic Real Estate -- Enabling Occurrence 4: A Very Nice Star -- Enabling Occurrence 5: A Very Nice Atmosphere -- Enabling Occurrence 6: The Hadley and Walker Circulations -- Enabling Occurrence 7: Amazing Life -- Welcome to an Awesome Planet -- 3 The Earth Is a Negentropic System, or ''the Bright Side of Empty'' -- Principle 1: Emptiness Bad -- Principle 2: Energy Gradients Make Stuff Happen - or Not -- Conclusion -- 4 Do-It-Yourself Climate Change Science -- Observational Evidence for Climate Change -- 5 Temperature Extremes - Impacts and Attribution: Shocks, Exposure, and Vulnerability -- Small Changes Can Dramatically Increase the Chance of Extremes -- How Extreme Have Temperatures Been in 2015-2019? -- Quantifying Increases in Exposure to Extreme Air Temperatures -- Can We Attribute a Portion of These Impacts to Climate Change? -- Explosive Interactions with Future Population Growth -- Conclusion -- 6 Precipitation Extremes: Observations and Impacts -- Introduction -- A Conceptual Model of Temperature: Water Vapor Relationships -- Examining the Data -- 2015-2019 Impacts of Extreme Precipitation -- Climate Change Projections -- 7 Hurricanes, Cyclones, and Typhoons -- Complexities Surrounding Cyclone Attribution and Detection -- Storyline-Based Attribution Studies: An Example for Houston -- Conclusion: Climate Change Is Hurting People Now. , 8 Conceptual Models of Climate Change and Prediction, and How They Relate to Floods and Fires -- Introduction -- Contrasting ''Bathtub'' Warming with Energy Convergence Patterns -- Exceptional Flooding and Temperatures in 2019 -- Climate Change? -- Conceptual Models Can Lead to Rapid Transformation -- 9 Climate Change Made the 2015-2016 El Niño More Extreme -- Hunger, El Niño, and the Southern Oscillation -- Attributing Potential Climate Change Impacts on the 2015/2016 El Niño -- 10 Bigger La Niñas and the East African Climate Paradox -- Did Climate Change Make the 2017 East Africa Drought More Intense? -- Did Climate Change Make the 2017 March-to-May Drought More Intense? -- Putting the Pieces Together -- 11 Fire and Drought in the Western United States -- 2017 -- 2018 -- 12 Fire and Australia's Black Summer -- Conclusion -- 13 Driving toward +4C on a Dixie® Cup Planet -- Representative Concentration Pathways -- Examining the Global Carbon Budget -- Summarizing the Known Unknowns -- 14 We Can Afford to Wear a White Hat -- Why Our Human ''Time Bomb'' Can Be a Good Thing -- Appendix A Few Resources for Further Reading and Research -- Chapter 1 -- Chapter 2 -- Chapter 3 -- Chapter 4 -- Chapter 5 -- Chapter 6 -- Chapter 7 -- Chapter 8 -- Chapter 9 -- Chapter 10 -- Chapter 11 -- Chapter 12 -- Chapter 13 -- Chapter 14 -- Index.