Description: Highlights: • Assessment of the Indian Ocean simulation from global forced sea- ice models. • SST biases are 2 times smaller in forced simulations than the coupled simulations. • Coupled model shows large inter-model spread over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. • Refinement in model horizontal resolution does not significantly improve simulations. • Uncover a secondary pathway of northward cross-equatorial transport along 75 °E. • Models are unable to capture the observed thick barrier layer in the north Bay of Bengal. Abstract: We present an analysis of annual and seasonal mean characteristics of the Indian Ocean circulation and water masses from 16 global ocean–sea-ice model simulations that follow the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE) interannual protocol (CORE-II). All simulations show a similar large-scale tropical current system, but with differences in the Equatorial Undercurrent. Most CORE-II models simulate the structure of the Cross Equatorial Cell (CEC) in the Indian Ocean. We uncover a previously unidentified secondary pathway of northward cross-equatorial transport along 75 °E, thus complementing the pathway near the Somali Coast. This secondary pathway is most prominent in the models which represent topography realistically, thus suggesting a need for realistic bathymetry in climate models. When probing the water mass structure in the upper ocean, we find that the salinity profiles are closer to observations in geopotential (level) models than in isopycnal models. More generally, we find that biases are model dependent, thus suggesting a grouping into model lineage, formulation of the surface boundary, vertical coordinate and surface salinity restoring. Refinement in model horizontal resolution (one degree versus degree) does not significantly improve simulations, though there are some marginal improvements in the salinity and barrier layer results. The results in turn suggest that a focus on improving physical parameterizations (e.g. boundary layer processes) may offer more near-term advances in Indian Ocean simulations than refined grid resolution.

Description: Sources of uncertainty (i.e., internal variability, model and scenario) in Atlantic Niño variability projections were quantified in 49 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phases 5 (CMIP5) and 6 (CMIP6). By the end of the twenty‐first century, the ensemble mean change in Atlantic Niño variability is −0.07 ± 0.10˚C, with 80% of CMIP models projecting a decrease, and representing a 16% reduction relative to the 1981–2005 ensemble mean. Models' projections depict a large spread, with variability changes ranging from 0.23˚C to −0.50˚C. Internal variability is the main source of uncertainty until 2045 but model uncertainty dominates thereafter, eventually explaining up to 80% of the total uncertainty. The scenario uncertainty remains low (〈1%) throughout the twenty‐first century. The total uncertainty on Atlantic Niño variability projections is not improved when considering only CMIP models with a realistic zonal equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient. Plain Language Summary Sources of uncertainty (i.e., internal variability, model and scenario) in future projections of the Atlantic Niño variability were evaluated in global coupled models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phases 5 (CMIP5) and 6 (CMIP6). Relative to 1981–2005, models' projections depict a large spread, ranging from increasing Atlantic Niño variability by up to 0.23˚C to decreasing by up to −0.50˚C. By the end of the twenty‐first century, the ensemble mean Atlantic Niño variability change is −0.07 ± 0.10˚C with 80% of the global coupled models simulating a decrease. This change in the ensemble mean Atlantic Niño variability, relative to the period 1981–2005, represents a 16% reduction. During the first four decades of projection, the internal variability is the main contributor to the total uncertainty; thereafter model uncertainty dominates and explains up to 80% of the total uncertainty at the end of the twenty‐first century. The scenario uncertainty remains low (〈1%) throughout the twenty‐first century. The total uncertainty on Atlantic Niño variability projections is not improved when considering only CMIP models with a realistic zonal equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient. Key Points 80% of the CMIP models simulate a decrease of the Atlantic Niño variability at the end of the 21st century The model uncertainty explains about 80% of the total uncertainty on Atlantic Niño variability projections at the end of the 21st century Global warming signal is not detectable throughout scenarios due to large internal variability and model uncertainties

Description: We describe a new, state-of-the-art, Earth System Regional Climate Model (RegCM-ES), which includes the coupling between the atmosphere, ocean and land surface, as well as an hydrological and ocean biogeochemistry model, with the capability of using a variety of physical parameterizations. The regional coupled model has been implemented and tested over some of the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domains and more regional settings featuring climatically important coupled phenomena. Regional coupled ocean-atmosphere models can be especially useful tools to provide information on the mechanisms of air-sea interactions and feedbacks occurring at fine spatial and temporal scales. RegCM-ES shows a good representation of precipitation and SST fields over the domains tested, as well as realistic simulations of coupled air-sea processes and interactions. The RegCM-ES model, which can be easily implemented over any regional domain of interest, is open source, making it suitable for usage by the broad scientific community.

Description: The driving mechanisms behind the decadal reversal of the Ionian Sea upper layer circulation recently sparked a considerable discussion in the Mediterranean scientific community. It has been suggested that the reversal can be driven by variations in wind stress curl over the basin, baroclinic dynamics acting within the Adriatic-Ionian System (AISys) or baroclinic dynamics driven by thermohaline properties at the AISys eastern boundary. Here, we perform numerical simulations in order to assess the relative importance of remote forcings (wind stress, thermohaline fluxes, thermohaline open boundary conditions) on the vorticity and energy budget of the Ionian Sea. A mechanistic understanding of the AISys dynamics is achieved with an approach based on an increasing complexity in the model forcings and domain. Our experiments suggest that wind stress does not play a leading role in the vorticity and energy budgets of the Ionian Sea. Wind stress can reinforce or weaken the circulation but it is not able to reverse its sign. Its role becomes dominant only in the absence of inflows through the Antikythira Strait and Cretan Passage. Instead, reversals in the upper layer circulation of the Ionian Sea take place only in the presence of an active boundary on the Aegean Sea/Levantine Basin side and appear to be correlated with substantial exchanges of Availalble Potential Energy between the two basins (as observed at the end of the Eastern Mediterranean Transient). From an energetic point of view, AISys can be explained therefore only if the role of the Aegean Sea is explicitly condidered. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: In this work we use a set of recent multi-year simulations to develop a simplified sea surface height index (SSH). The index characterizes the dynamics of Ionian upper layer circulation and its links with sea surface height and salinity in the Southern Adriatic and Aegean Seas during the period 1987-2008. The analysis highlights a covariant behavior between Ionian Sea and Aegean Sea associated with a mutual zonal exchange of water masses with different salinity characteristics. Our analysis confirms that the variability observed in the period 1987-2008 in the upper layer circulation of the Ionian was driven by the salinity variability in the Southern Adriatic and Aegean Sea. This study supports and reinforces the hypothesis that two observed BiOS-like reversals reflect the existence of multiple equilibrium states in the Mediterranean Thermohaline circulation in the Eastern Mediterranean and that a complete characterization of observed variability needs to take into account a fully coupled Adriatic-Ionian-Aegean System.

Description: An important feature of ocean circulation in the Atlantic is the cross-equatorial and northward transport of water masses at the surface and southward transport at the bottom of the ocean by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, the link between the AMOC and tropical Atlantic variability remain poorly understood. This is partly due lack of long-term observations of the AMOC, with the longest direct measurements available since 2004. Here we construct a dynamic sea-level proxy of the AMOC variability during the twentieth century, which is strongly correlated with the AMOC index during the observational period from 2005-2019 (r=0.50; p=1.48×10-9). This sea-level proxy exhibits a 10-15 year periodicity similar to the pan-Atlantic Decadal Oscillation (ADO) – the north-south bands of alternate anomalies in surface-ocean temperatures with the maximum variance over the tropical Atlantic, and winds from colder bands to the warmer. The sea level-derived proxy leads the ADO pattern by several years, through the interactions of overturning and gyre circulations with Kelvin wave anomalies that propagate from the North Atlantic to the low latitudes and by the thermocline feedback in the Atlantic cold tongue region. The peak of the sea surface temperature variability in the tropical Atlantic in turn drives inter-hemispheric atmospheric teleconnections represented by negative North Atlantic Oscillation phase over the North Atlantic. These findings imply that, rather than a passive role postulated by the prevailing thermodynamic paradigm, AMOC-related ocean circulation plays an active role in ADO variability.

Description: We present an analysis of annual and seasonal mean characteristics of the Indian Ocean circulation and water masses from 16 global ocean–sea-ice model simulations that follow the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE) interannual protocol (CORE-II). All simulations show a similar large-scale tropical current system, but with differences in the Equatorial Undercurrent. Most CORE-II models simulate the structure of the Cross Equatorial Cell (CEC) in the Indian Ocean. We uncover a previously unidentified secondary pathway of northward cross-equatorial transport along 75 °E, thus complementing the pathway near the Somali Coast. This secondary pathway is most prominent in the models which represent topography realistically, thus suggesting a need for realistic bathymetry in climate models. When probing the water mass structure in the upper ocean, we find that the salinity profiles are closer to observations in geopotential (level) models than in isopycnal models. More generally, we find that biases are model dependent, thus suggesting a grouping into model lineage, formulation of the surface boundary, vertical coordinate and surface salinity restoring. Refinement in model horizontal resolution (one degree versus degree) does not significantly improve simulations, though there are some marginal improvements in the salinity and barrier layer results. The results in turn suggest that a focus on improving physical parameterizations (e.g. boundary layer processes) may offer more near-term advances in Indian Ocean simulations than refined grid resolution.

Description: We evaluate the mean circulation patterns, water mass distributions, and tropical dynamics of the North and Equatorial Pacific Ocean based on a suite of global ocean-sea ice simulations driven by the CORE-II atmospheric forcing from 1963-2007. The first three moments (mean, standard deviation and skewness) of sea surface height and surface temperature variability are assessed against observations. Large discrepancies are found in the variance and skewness of sea surface height and in the skewness of sea surface temperature. Comparing with the observation, most models underestimate the Kuroshio transport in the Asian Marginal seas due to the missing influence of the unresolved western boundary current and meso-scale eddies. In terms of the Mixed Layer Depths (MLDs) in the North Pacific, the two observed maxima associated with Subtropical Mode Water and Central Mode Water formation coalesce into a large pool of deep MLDs in all participating models, but another local maximum associated with the formation of Eastern Subtropical Mode Water can be found in all models with different magnitudes. The main model bias of deep MLDs results from excessive Subtropical Mode Water formation due to inaccurate representation of the Kuroshio separation and of the associated excessively warm and salty Kuroshio water. Further water mass analysis shows that the North Pacific Intermediate Water can penetrate southward in most models, but its distribution greatly varies among models depending not only on grid resolution and vertical coordinate but also on the model dynamics. All simulations show overall similar large scale tropical current system, but with differences in the structures of the Equatorial Undercurrent. We also confirm the key role of the meridional gradient of the wind stress curl in driving the equatorial transport, leading to a generally weak North Equatorial Counter Current in all models due to inaccurate CORE-II equatorial wind fields. Most models show a larger interior transport of Pacific subtropical cells than the observation due to the overestimated transport in the Northern Hemisphere likely resulting from the deep pycnocline.

Description: In the framework of the second phase of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II), we present an analysis of the representation of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in a suite of seventeen global ocean–sea ice models. We focus on the mean, variability and trends of both the ACC and MOC over the 1958–2007 period, and discuss their relationship with the surface forcing. We aim to quantify the degree of eddy saturation and eddy compensation in the models participating in CORE-II, and compare our results with available observations, previous fine-resolution numerical studies and theoretical constraints. Most models show weak ACC transport sensitivity to changes in forcing during the past five decades, and they can be considered to be in an eddy saturated regime. Larger contrasts arise when considering MOC trends, with a majority of models exhibiting significant strengthening of the MOC during the late 20th and early 21st century. Only a few models show a relatively small sensitivity to forcing changes, responding with an intensified eddy-induced circulation that provides some degree of eddy compensation, while still showing considerable decadal trends. Both ACC and MOC interannual variabilities are largely controlled by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Based on these results, models are clustered into two groups. Models with constant or two-dimensional (horizontal) specification of the eddy-induced advection coefficient κ show larger ocean interior decadal trends, larger ACC transport decadal trends and no eddy compensation in the MOC. Eddy-permitting models or models with a three-dimensional time varying κ show smaller changes in isopycnal slopes and associated ACC trends, and partial eddy compensation. As previously argued, a constant in time or space κ is responsible for a poor representation of mesoscale eddy effects and cannot properly simulate the sensitivity of the ACC and MOC to changing surface forcing. Evidence is given for a larger sensitivity of the MOC as compared to the ACC transport, even when approaching eddy saturation. Future process studies designed for disentangling the role of momentum and buoyancy forcing in driving the ACC and MOC are proposed.