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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2018. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 45 (2018): 10,609-10,618, doi:10.1029/2018GL079455.
    Description: Coupled general circulation model (GCM) biases in the tropical Pacific are substantial, including a westward extended cold sea surface temperature (SST) bias linked to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Investigation of internal climate variability at centennial timescales using multicentury control integrations of 27 GCMs suggests that a Pacific Centennial Oscillation emerges in GCMs with too strong ENSO variability in the equatorial Pacific, including westward extended SST variability. Using a stochastic model of climate variability (Hasselmann type), we diagnose such centennial SST variance in the western equatorial Pacific. The consistency of a simple stochastic model with complex GCMs suggests that a previously defined Pacific Centennial Oscillation may be driven by biases in high‐frequency ENSO forcing in the western equatorial Pacific. A cautious evaluation of long‐term trends in the tropical Pacific from GCMs is necessary because significant trends in historical and future simulations are possible consequences of biases in simulated internal variability alone.
    Description: Singapore Ministry of Educaton; National Science Foundation Grant Numbers: OISE‐1743738, AGS‐1602581, AGS‐1401400, AGS‐1243204; Singapore Ministry of Education Academic Research Fund Tier 2 Grant Number: MOE2016‐T2‐1‐016; LDEO. Grant Number: 8258
    Keywords: Model bias ; ENSO ; Centennial variability ; Climate model ; Tropical Pacific
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 31 (2018): 6245-6261, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0513.1.
    Description: Reconstructions of sea surface temperature (SST) based on instrumental observations suggest that the equatorial Pacific zonal SST gradient has increased over the twentieth century. While this increase is suggestive of the ocean dynamical thermostat mechanism of Clement et al., observations of a concurrent weakening of the zonal atmospheric (Walker) circulation are not. Here we show, using heat and momentum budget calculations on an ocean reanalysis dataset, that a seasonal weakening of the zonal atmospheric circulation is in fact consistent with cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) and thus an increase in the zonal SST gradient. This cooling is driven by a strengthening Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) in response to decreased upper-ocean westward momentum associated with weakening equatorial zonal wind stress. This process can help to reconcile the seemingly contradictory twentieth-century trends in the tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean. Moreover, it is shown that coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) do not correctly simulate this process; we identify a systematic bias in the relationship between changes in equatorial surface zonal wind stress in the EEP and EUC strength that may help to explain why observations and CGCMs have opposing trends in the zonal SST gradient over the twentieth century.
    Description: 2019-01-11
    Keywords: Tropics ; Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Climate change ; Climate models ; Trends
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 120 (2015): 8052–8064, doi:10.1002/2015JD023085.
    Description: The phasing of winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies in the North American monsoon (NAM) region 2 (113.25°W–107.75°W, 30°N–35.25°N—NAM2) of southwestern North America is analyzed in fully coupled simulations of the Last Millennium and compared to tree ring reconstructed winter and summer precipitation variability. The models simulate periods with in-phase seasonal precipitation anomalies, but the strength of this relationship is variable on multidecadal time scales, behavior that is also exhibited by the reconstructions. The models, however, are unable to simulate periods with consistently out-of-phase winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies as observed in the latter part of the instrumental interval. The periods with predominantly in-phase winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies in the models are significant against randomness, and while this result is suggestive of a potential for dual-season drought on interannual and longer time scales, models do not consistently exhibit the persistent dual-season drought seen in the dendroclimatic reconstructions. These collective findings indicate that model-derived drought risk assessments may underestimate the potential for dual-season drought in 21st century projections of hydroclimate in the American Southwest and parts of Mexico.
    Description: NOAA. Grant Number: NA11OAR4310166, NSF. Grant Number: AGS-1243204
    Description: 2016-02-19
    Keywords: Paleoclimate ; North American monsoon ; Teleconnection
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2023-01-14
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 127(7), (2022): e2021JC018276, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC018276.
    Description: Coastal communities across the United States (U.S.) are experiencing an increase in the frequency of high-tide flooding (HTF). This increase is mainly due to sea-level rise (SLR), but other factors such as intra- to inter-annual mean sea level variability, tidal anomalies, and non-tidal residuals also contribute to HTF events. Here we introduce a novel decomposition approach to develop and then analyze a new database of different sea-level components. Those components represent processes that act on various timescales to contribute to HTF along the U.S. coastline. We find that the relative importance of components to HTF events strongly varies in space and time. Tidal anomalies contribute the most along the west and northeast coasts, where HTF events mostly occur in winter. Non-tidal residuals are most important along the Gulf of Mexico and mid-Atlantic coasts, where HTF events mostly occur in fall. We also quantify the minimum number of components that were required to cause HTF events in the past and how this number changed over time. The results highlight that at present, due to SLR, fewer components are needed to combine to push water levels above HTF thresholds, but tidal anomalies alone are still not sufficient to reach HTF thresholds in most locations. Finally, we explore how co-variability between different components leads to compounding effects. In some places, positive correlation between sea-level components leads to significantly more HTF events than would be expected if sea-level components were uncorrelated, whereas in other places negative correlation leads to fewer HTF events.
    Description: his work was supported by NASA's Sea Level Change Team award number 80NSSC20K1241. S.L. also acknowledges support by the China Scholarship Council (no. 201904910413) and the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China (grant no. 2011YQ120045).
    Description: 2023-01-14
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Mankin, J. S., Lehner, F., Coats, S., & McKinnon, K. A. The value of initial condition large ensembles to robust adaptation decision-making. Earth's Future, 8(10), (2020): e2012EF001610, doi:10.1029/2020EF001610.
    Description: The origins of uncertainty in climate projections have major consequences for the scientific and policy decisions made in response to climate change. Internal climate variability, for example, is an inherent uncertainty in the climate system that is undersampled by the multimodel ensembles used in most climate impacts research. Because of this, decision makers are left with the question of whether the range of climate projections across models is due to structural model choices, thus requiring more scientific investment to constrain, or instead is a set of equally plausible outcomes consistent with the same warming world. Similarly, many questions faced by scientists require a clear separation of model uncertainty and that arising from internal variability. With this as motivation and the renewed attention to large ensembles given planning for Phase 7 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP7), we illustrate the scientific and policy value of the attribution and quantification of uncertainty from initial condition large ensembles, particularly when analyzed in conjunction with multimodel ensembles. We focus on how large ensembles can support regional‐scale robust adaptation decision‐making in ways multimodel ensembles alone cannot. We also acknowledge several recently identified problems associated with large ensembles, namely, that they are (1) resource intensive, (2) redundant, and (3) biased. Despite these challenges, we show, using examples from hydroclimate, how large ensembles provide unique information for the scientific and policy communities and can be analyzed appropriately for regional‐scale climate impacts research to help inform risk management in a warming world.
    Description: F. L. has been supported by the Swiss NSF (grant no. PZ00P2_174128), the NSF Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences (grant no. AGS‐0856145, Amendment 87), and the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the U.S.Department of Energy’s Office of Biological & Environmental Research (BER) via NSF IA 1844590. This is SOEST publication no. 11115.
    Keywords: Large ensembles ; Robust decision‐making ; Internal variability ; Initial conditions ; Climate adaptation
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 124(16), (2019): 8953-8971, doi: 10.1029/2019JD030424.
    Description: Multiyear droughts are a common occurrence in southwestern North America (SWNA), but it is unclear what causes these persistent dry periods. The ocean‐atmosphere conditions coinciding with droughts have traditionally been studied using correlation and composite methods, which suggest that cool conditions in the tropical Pacific are associated with SWNA droughts and warm conditions are associated with wet periods in SWNA. Nevertheless, the extent to which multiyear droughts are truly consistent with this paradigm remains unknown. This is, in part, because the temporal trajectory of ocean‐atmosphere conditions during these dry periods have not been sufficiently characterized. Here we examine the continuum of ocean‐atmosphere trajectories before, during, and after multiyear droughts in SWNA using observation‐based data and an ensemble of climate model simulations from the Community Earth System Model. An examination of sea surface temperature patterns at the beginning, middle, and end of SWNA droughts shows that an El Niño event tends to precede SWNA droughts, a cool tropical Pacific occurs during droughts, and central Pacific El Niño events end droughts. However, moderate El Niño events can occur in the middle of persistent droughts, so a warm tropical Pacific does not always end these dry periods. These findings are important for drought predictability and emphasize the need to improve simulations of the magnitude, life cycle, and frequency of occurrence of El Niño events.
    Description: L. Parsons thanks the Washington Research Foundation for funding support and thanks R. Jnglin Wills and D. Battisti for suggestions related to tropical Pacific‐SWNA comparisons. We thank B. Otto‐Bliesner and acknowledge the CESM1(CAM5) Last Millennium Ensemble Community Project and supercomputing resources provided by NSF/CISL/Yellowstone. Support for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project version 2c data set is provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research (BER), and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office. GPCC Precipitation data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/).
    Description: 2020-02-06
    Keywords: Drought ; Climate dynamics ; Teleconnections ; Southwest ; Climate model ; Tropical Pacific
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 46 (2019): 12909-12918, doi: 10.1029/2019GL084217.
    Description: Seismic signals from ocean‐solid Earth interactions are ubiquitously recorded on our planet. However, these wavefields are typically incoherent in the time domain limiting their utilization for understanding ocean dynamics or solid Earth properties. In contrast, we find that during large storms such as hurricanes and Nor'easters the interaction of long‐period ocean waves with shallow seafloor features located near the edge of continental shelves, known as ocean banks, excites coherent transcontinental Rayleigh wave packets in the 20‐ to 50‐s period band. These “stormquakes” migrate coincident with the storms but are effectively spatiotemporally focused seismic point sources with equivalent earthquake magnitudes that can be greater than 3.5. Stormquakes thus provide new coherent sources to investigate Earth structure in locations that typically lack both seismic instrumentation and earthquakes. Moreover, they provide a new geophysical observable with high spatial and temporal resolution with which to investigate ocean wave dynamics during large storms.
    Description: We would like to thank the Editor Dr. Hayes, Dr. Ekström, Dr. McNamara, Dr. Pollitz, and the other two reviewers for their constructive suggestions, which have led to improvements in our paper. We would also like to thank Dr. Ardhuin and Dr. Gualtieri for helpful discussions, and specifically Dr. Ardhuin for sharing codes to model ocean wave and seafloor topography interference (Ardhuin et al., 2015). The seismic data were provided by Data Management Center (DMC) of the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS). The facilities of IRIS Data Services, and specifically the IRIS Data Management Center, were used for access to waveforms, related metadata, and/or derived products used in this study. IRIS Data Services are funded through the Seismological Facilities for the Advancement of Geoscience and EarthScope (SAGE) Proposal of the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement EAR‐1261681. The earthquake catalogs were downloaded from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor GCMT project (Ekström et al., 2012), and the International Seismological Centre (ISC) (International Seismological Centre, 2013). The ocean wave models are obtained from the Environmental Modeling Center at the National Weather Service (NWS) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA; Tolman, 2014). The hurricane tracks are obtained from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) of NOAA (Landsea & Franklin, 2013). The topography is obtained from the ETOPO1 Arc‐Minute Global Relief Model provided by the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) of NOAA. Toponymic information, including undersea features, are obtained from the GEONet Names Server (GNS), which is based on the Geographic Names Database, containing official standard names approved by the U.S. Board on Geographic Names and maintained by the National Geospatial‐Intelligence Agency (www.nga.mil, last accessed 21 March 2019). The Bahamas Banks geographic polygons are obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Geographic Names Information System (GNIS) database of names. The AELUMA code can be obtained on request through the IRIS data service product website at https://ds.iris.edu/ds/products/infrasound-aeluma/request(last accessed 21 March 2019). W. F. acknowledges support from the Postdoctoral Scholar Program at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, with funding provided by the Weston Howland Jr. Postdoctoral Scholarship. C. D. G and M. A. H. H acknowledge support from NSF Grant EAR‐1358520. The processed data are available from the authors upon request.
    Description: 2020-04-14
    Keywords: Stormquake ; Surface wave ; USArray ; Hurriance ; Nor'Easter ; Ambient noise
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2022-05-27
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology 36(7), (2021): e2020PA004184, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020PA004184.
    Description: Meridional shifts of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) western edge create a dipole that drives hydroclimate variability in the southeastern United States and Caribbean region. Southwest displacements suppress rainfall in the southern Caribbean. Northwest displacements drive southeast United States and northern Caribbean drying. Projections for the 21st century suggest a more meridionally displaced NASH, which jeopardizes Caribbean island communities dependent on rain-fed aquifers. While recent work indicates that Atlantic and Pacific Ocean-atmosphere variability influenced the NASH during the instrumental period, little is known about NASH behavior and subsequent hydroclimate responses over longer timescales. To address this limitation, we developed a ∼6000-years long rainfall record through the analysis of calcite raft deposits archived within sediments from a coastal sinkhole in the northeast Bahamas (Abaco Island). Increased (decreased) calcite raft deposition provides evidence for increased (decreased) rainfall driven by NASH variability. We use simulations from the Community Earth System Model to support this interpretation. These simulations improve our understanding of NASH behavior on timescales congruous with the reconstruction and suggest an important role for the state of the Pacific Ocean. Furthermore, model simulations and a compilation of regional hydroclimate reconstructions reveal that the NASH-driven dipole dominates northern and southern Caribbean rainfall on centennial timescales. These results bring Holocene Caribbean hydroclimate variability into sharper focus while providing important context for present and future changes to regional climate. Additionally, this study highlights the need for improved future predictions of the state of the Pacific Ocean to best inform water scarcity mitigation strategies for at-risk Caribbean communities.
    Description: This research was supported by the Texas A&M University CTE Montague Scholar Fund, the Geological Society of America Graduate Student Research Grant Program (EAR-1712071), and grants to Peter J. van Hengstum (OCE-1356509, EAR-1833117, EAR-1703087) and Jeffrey P. Donnelly (EAR-1702946) from the National Science Foundation.
    Description: 2022-01-05
    Keywords: Holocene hydroclimate ; calcite rafts ; sinkhole ; North Atlantic Subtropical High ; Caribbean hydroclimate dipole ; carbonate sedimentology
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2022-06-06
    Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Piecuch, C. G., Coats, S., Dangendorf, S., Landerer, F. W., Reager, J. T., Thompson, P. R., & Wahl, T. High-tide floods and storm surges during atmospheric rivers on the US West Coast. Geophysical Research Letters, 49(2), (2022): e2021GL096820, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL096820.
    Description: Atmospheric rivers (ARs) cause inland hydrological impacts related to precipitation. However, little is known about coastal hazards associated with these events. We elucidate high-tide floods (HTFs) and storm surges during ARs on the US West Coast during 1980–2016. HTFs and ARs cooccur more often than expected from chance. Between 10% and 63% of HTFs coincide with ARs on average, depending on location. However, interannual-to-decadal variations in HTFs are due more to tides and mean sea-level changes than storminess variability. Only 2–15% of ARs coincide with HTFs, suggesting that ARs typically must cooccur with high tides or mean sea levels to cause HTFs. Storm surges during ARs reflect local wind, pressure, and precipitation forcing: meridional wind and barometric pressure are primary drivers, but precipitation makes secondary contributions. This study highlights the relevance of ARs to coastal impacts, clarifies the drivers of storm surge during ARs, and identifies future research directions.
    Description: This work was supported by National Aeronautics and Space Administration Sea Level Change Team awards 80NSSC20K1241 and 80NM0018D0004 (to C. G. P.). The contribution from F. W. L. and J. T. R. represents research carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NM0018D0004).
    Keywords: atmospheric rivers ; high-tide flooding ; storm surge ; coastal impacts ; coastal hazards ; sea level
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123 (2018):11.307-11.320, doi:10.1029/2018JD029323
    Description: The late 16th‐century North American megadrought was notable for its persistence, extent, intensity, and occurrence after the main interval of megadrought activity during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Forcing from sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific is considered a possible driver of megadroughts, and we investigate this hypothesis for the late 16th‐century event using two new 600‐year long hydroclimate field reconstructions from Mexico and Australia. Areas represented by these reconstructions have strong teleconnections to tropical Pacific SSTs, evidenced by the leading principal component in each region explaining ∼40% of local hydroclimate variability and correlating significantly with the boreal winter (December‐January‐February) NINO 3.4 index. Using these two principal components as predictors, we develop a skillful reconstruction of the December‐January‐February NINO 3.4 index. The reconstruction reveals that the late 16th‐century megadrought likely occurred during one of the most persistent and intense periods of cold tropical Pacific SST anomalies of the last 600 years (1566–1590 C.E.; median NINO 3.4 = −0.79 K). This anomalously cold period coincided with a major filling episode for Kati Thanda‐Lake Eyre in Australia, a hydroclimate response dynamically consistent with the reconstructed SST state. These results offer new evidence that tropical Pacific forcing was an important driver of the late 16th‐century North American megadrought over the Southwest and Mexico, highlighting the large amplitude of natural variability that can occur within the climate system.
    Description: 2019-03-21
    Keywords: Drought ; Megadrought ; Paloclimate
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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