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  • 1
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    ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century (2020)
    Copernicus Publications (EGU)
    In:  The Cryosphere, 14 (9). pp. 3033-3070.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-01-08
    Description: Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 2
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    ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century (2020)
    Copernicus Publications (EGU)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-04
    Description: Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and inform on the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimated the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes and the forcings employed. This study presents results from 18 simulations from 15 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100, forced with different scenarios from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) representative of the spread in climate model results. The contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of Sea Level Equivalent (SLE). The evolution of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss up to 21.0 cm SLE in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.5 and 16.5 cm SLE, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional mass loss of 8 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 AOGCMs show an overall mass loss of 10 mm SLE compared to simulations done under present-day conditions, with limited mass gain in East Antarctica.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 3
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    Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise (2021)
    Nature Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2,3,4,5,6,7,8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 4
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    Impact of model resolution on simulated wind, drifting snow and surface mass balance in Terre Adelie, East Antarctica (2012)
    Cambridge University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-10-06
    Print ISSN: 0022-1430
    Electronic ISSN: 1727-5652
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of The International Glaciological Society (IGS).
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    PAPER CURRENT
  • 5
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    Ice density-based surface mass balance from the ABN1314-103 ice core, Aurora Basin North, Antarctica (2022)
    PANGAEA
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-30
    Keywords: ABN1314-103 ice core; Age; AGE; Age-depth model (ALC01112018); Ant_ABN-1314; Antarctica; Calculated from density and age-depth model; Chemical and physical analysis in snow/firn for accumulation studies in Adelie L; CHICTABA; density; Density, ice; Depth, bottom/max; DEPTH, ice/snow; Depth, top/min; East Antarctica; IC; Ice core; Ice corer; nitrate; nitrogen isotope ratio (δ15N); Physical measurement; Sample ID; surface mass balance; Surface mass balance; Time in years
    Type: Dataset
    Format: text/tab-separated-values, 774 data points
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    DATA PANGAEA
  • 6
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    Nitrate δ15N values and ice density-based surface mass balance from the ABN1314-103 ice core, Aurora Basin North, Antarctica (2022)
    PANGAEA
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-30
    Description: Nitrate concentration and isotopic (δ15NNO3) data, ice density, and surface mass balance estimates from the ABN1314-103 ice core. This 103 m long core was drilled beginning on 07 January 2014 as one of three ice cores at Aurora Basin North, Antarctica (-71.17, 111.37, 2679 m.a.s.l), in the 2013-2014 field season. The age-depth model for ABN1314-103 was matched through ion profiles from an annually-resolved model (ALC01112018) originally developed for one of the other ABN cores through seasonal ion and water isotope cycles and constrained by volcanic horizons. Each 1 m segment of the core was weighed and measured for ice density calculations, and then sampled for nitrate at 0.33 m resolution. Nitrate concentrations were taken on melted ice aliquots with ion chromatography, while isotopic analysis was achieved through bacterial denitrification and MAT 253 mass spectrometry after concentrating with anionic resin. Using the density data and the age-depth model's dates for the top and bottom of each 1 m core segment, we reconstructed a history of surface mass balance changes as recorded in ABN1314-103. Additionally, we also estimated the effect of upstream topographic changes on the ice core's surface mass balance record through a ground penetrating radar transect that extended 11.5 km against the direction of glacial ice flow. The modern SMB changes along this upstream transect were linked to ABN1314-103 core depths by through the local horizontal ice flow rate (16.2 m a-1) and the core's age-depth model, and included here for comparative analysis. See Akers et al., 2022 for more analytical details.
    Keywords: Antarctica; density; Ice core; nitrate; nitrogen isotope ratio (δ15N); surface mass balance
    Type: Dataset
    Format: application/zip, 2 datasets
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    DATA PANGAEA
  • 7
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    Nitrate concentration, isotopic δ15N and surface mass balance from the ABN1314-103 ice core, Aurora Basin North, Antarctica (2022)
    PANGAEA
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-02-13
    Keywords: ABN1314-103 ice core; Age; AGE; Age-depth model (ALC01112018); Ant_ABN-1314; Antarctica; Chemical and physical analysis in snow/firn for accumulation studies in Adelie L; CHICTABA; Colorimetry and/or ion chromatography; density; Depth, bottom/max; DEPTH, ice/snow; Depth, top/min; East Antarctica; Ground-penetrating radar (GPR); IC; Ice core; Ice corer; Mass spectrometer, Finnigan, MAT 253; nitrate; Nitrate; nitrogen isotope ratio (δ15N); Physical measurement; Sample ID; surface mass balance; Surface mass balance; Time in years; δ15N; δ15N, standard error
    Type: Dataset
    Format: text/tab-separated-values, 3207 data points
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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    DATA PANGAEA
  • 8
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    Spatial variability in sub-photic zone nitrate δ15N and surface mass balance across East Antarctica (2022)
    PANGAEA
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-07-19
    Description: Geographic information, surface mass balance (SMB) data, and sub-photic zone (〉0.3 m) nitrate concentration and nitrogen isotopic composition (δ15NNO3) for 135 sites across East Antarctica. This database was used to examine and define the relationship between δ15NNO3 and SMB in Antarctica as part of the SCADI (Snow Core Accumulation from Delta-15N Isotopes) and EAIIST (East Antarctic International Ice Sheet Traverse) projects. Of these 135 sites, 92 are newly reported here while the other site data were previously published and are cited accordingly. Snow bearing nitrate was sampled from snow pits and firn/ice cores at different dates depending on the original scientific campaign, but predominately between 2010 and 2020, with the earliest sampling occurring in 2004. Nitrate was later extracted from the snow, concentrated, and analyzed for δ15NNO3. Surface mass balance data comes from a combination of previous ground-based observations (e.g., stakes, ice core data) and the output from Modèle Atmosphérique Régional version 3.6.4 with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts “Interim” re-analysis data (ERA-interim) data, adjusted for observed model SMB biases. Elevation data were extracted from the Reference Elevation Model of Antarctica (REMA, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-665-2019).
    Keywords: ABN1314-103 ice core; Ant_ABN-1314; Ant_ABN-DL1; Ant_ABN-DL2; Ant_ABN-P4; Ant_ABN-P5; Ant_AGO5; Ant_asuma.2016.1; Ant_asuma.2016.2; Ant_CHIC-01; Ant_CHIC-04; Ant_CHIC-05; Ant_CHIC-07; Ant_CHIC-10; Ant_CHIC-11; Ant_CHIC-13; Ant_CHIC-15; Ant_CHIC-18; Ant_CHIC-20; Ant_cph.d17; Ant_cph.d24; Ant_cph.d5; Ant_cph1516; Ant_DA2005; Ant_DC04; Ant_DC07-1; Ant_DC07-2; Ant_DC07-3; Ant_dc14; Ant_dc2010pits; Ant_DF1; Ant_DF2; Ant_dml.pit.a; Ant_dml.pit.b; Ant_eaiist.stop01; Ant_eaiist.stop02; Ant_eaiist.stop03; Ant_eaiist.stop04; Ant_eaiist.stop05; Ant_eaiist.stop06; Ant_eaiist.stop07; Ant_eaiist.stop08a; Ant_eaiist.stop08b; Ant_eaiist.stop09; Ant_eaiist.stop10; Ant_eaiist.stop11; Ant_eaiist.stop12; Ant_eaiist.stop13a; Ant_eaiist.stop13b; Ant_eaiist.stop14; Ant_eaiist.stop19; Ant_eaiist.stop20; Ant_eaiist.stop21; Ant_eaiist.stop22; Ant_eaiist.stop23; Ant_eaiist.stop24; Ant_eaiist.stop25; Ant_eaiist.stop26; Ant_Fuji_Pass; Ant_H108; Ant_H128; Ant_H42; Ant_H68; Ant_H88; Ant_IM0; Ant_IV; Ant_MD590; Ant_NDF; Ant_NMD304; Ant_Paleo; Ant_Plateau_S; Ant_posteaiist.asuma01; Ant_posteaiist.asuma02; Ant_posteaiist.asuma03; Ant_posteaiist.asuma04; Ant_posteaiist.asuma05; Ant_posteaiist.asuma06; Ant_posteaiist.asuma07; Ant_posteaiist.asuma08; Ant_posteaiist.asuma09; Ant_posteaiist.asuma10; Ant_posteaiist.asuma11; Ant_posteaiist.samba; Ant_posteaiist.stop27; Ant_posteaiist.stop28; Ant_posteaiist.stop29; Ant_posteaiist.stop30; Ant_posteaiist.stop31; Ant_posteaiist.stop32; Ant_posteaiist.stop33; Ant_posteaiist.stop34; Ant_posteaiist.stop35; Ant_posteaiist.stop36; Ant_posteaiist.stop37; Ant_posteaiist.stop38; Ant_preeaiist.01; Ant_preeaiist.02; Ant_preeaiist.03; Ant_preeaiist.04; Ant_preeaiist.05; Ant_preeaiist.06; Ant_preeaiist.07; Ant_preeaiist.08; Ant_preeaiist.09; Ant_preeaiist.10; Ant_preeaiist.11; Ant_preeaiist.12; Ant_preeaiist.13; Ant_preeaiist.14; Ant_preeaiist.15; Ant_preeaiist.16; Ant_preeaiist.17; Ant_preeaiist.18; Ant_S1; Ant_S2; Ant_S3; Ant_S30-JARE; Ant_S4; Ant_S80core; Ant_S80pit; Ant_V09-1; Ant_V09-2; Ant_VI; Ant_VIII; Ant_X; Ant_XII; Ant_XIV; Ant_XVI; Ant_XVIII; Ant_Z2; Ant_ZtoA-P1; Ant_ZtoA-P2; Ant_ZtoA-P3; Ant_ZtoA-P4; Ant_ZtoA-P5; Ant_ZtoA-P7; Antarctica; Bias-adjusted MAR output; Campaign; Category; Chemical and physical analysis in snow/firn for accumulation studies in Adelie L; CHICTABA; Colorimetry and/or ion chromatography; Comment; East Antarctica; ELEVATION; Event label; Extracted from REMA; GPS in field; IC; Ice core; Ice corer; isotope; LATITUDE; LONGITUDE; MAR output; Mass spectrometer, Finnigan, MAT 253; nitrate; Nitrate; nitrogen isotope ratio (δ15N); Physical measurement and observations; Reference/source; Site; SNOW; Snow/ice sample; Snow pits/firn core/ice core; surface mass balance; Surface mass balance; Transect; Type; δ15N
    Type: Dataset
    Format: text/tab-separated-values, 1904 data points
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    DATA PANGAEA
  • 9
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    Snowfall and Water Stable Isotope Variability in East Antarctica Controlled by Warm Synoptic Events (2020)
    AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION, 125(17), ISSN: 2169-897X
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-09-18
    Description: Understanding climate proxy records that preserve physical characteristics of past climate is a prerequisite to reconstruct long‐term climatic conditions. Water stable isotope ratios (δ18O) constitute a widely used proxy in ice cores to reconstruct temperature and climate. However, the original climate signal is altered between the formation of precipitation and the ice, especially in low‐accumulation areas such as the East Antarctic Plateau. Atmospheric conditions under which the isotopic signal is acquired at Aurora Basin North (ABN), East Antarctica, are characterized with the regional atmospheric model Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR). The model shows that 50% of the snow is accumulated in less than 24 days/year. Snowfall occurs throughout the year and intensifies during winter, with 64% of total accumulation between April and September, leading to a cold bias of −0.86°C in temperatures above inversion compared to the annual mean of −29.7°C. Large snowfall events are associated with high‐pressure systems forcing warm oceanic air masses toward the Antarctic interior, which causes a warm bias of +2.83°C. The temperature‐δ18O relationship, assessed with the global atmospheric model ECHAM5‐wiso, is primarily constrained by the winter variability, but the observed slope is valid year‐round. Three snow δ18O records covering 2004–2014 indicate that the anomalies recorded in the ice core are attributable to the occurrence of warm winter storms bringing precipitation to ABN and support the interpretation of δ18O in this region as a marker of temperature changes related to large‐scale atmospheric conditions, particularly blocking events and variations in the Southern Annular Mode.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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    PAPER (OA)
  • 10
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    Mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2018 (2020)
    In:  EPIC3Nature, 579(7798), pp. 233-239
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-08-03
    Description: The Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise in recent decades1,2, and it is expected to continue to be so3. Although increases in glacier flow4–6 and surface melting7–9 have been driven by oceanic10–12 and atmospheric13,14 warming, the magnitude and trajectory of the ice sheet’s mass imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet’s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. The ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, but annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 345 ± 66 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,902 ± 342 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.8 ± 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that the reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,964 ± 565 billion tonnes (50.3 per cent) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,938 ± 541 billion tonnes (49.7 per cent) of ice loss was due to increased glacier dynamical imbalance, which rose from 46 ± 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 ± 25 billion tonnes per year since then. The total rate of ice loss slowed to 222 ± 30 billion tonnes per year between 2013 and 2017, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions15 and ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbræ16. Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the rates predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their high-end climate warming scenario17, which forecast an additional 70 to 130 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 compared with their central estimate.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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    PAPER (OA)
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