Description: Recruitment of central/eastern Baltic cod critically depends on favourable oceanographic conditions in the deeper basins of the Baltic Sea creating a suitable habitat for the development of early life stages. The decline in the size of the spawning stock since the mid-1980s initiated a series of investigations on recruitment, which were continued through a partial recovery of the stock in the mid-1990s. The principal factors influencing recruitment and recognized at present are: (i) the volume of water with temperature, oxygen and salinity conditions which meet the minimum requirements for successful egg development ('reproductive volume'); (ii) the age-structure of the spawning stock; (iii) the timing of spawning; and (iv) predation mortality on eggs due to sprat (Sprattus sprattus) and herring (Clupea harengus), as well as cod cannibalism. We relate recruitment at age 2 to parent stock size using updated time series of these variables, comprising the period 1966 to 1994. Spawning stock biomass and egg production are compared as measures of parent stock size. The influence of wind energy and zooplankton abundance on cod recruitment are discussed. A modified Ricker model is outlined explicity accounting for environmentally-induced oscillations around the two observed levels of cod stock size.

Description: Investigations of factors affecting feeding success in fish larvae require knowledge of the scales of variability of the feeding process itself and the indices used to assess this variability. In this study, we measured short-term (diel) variability in feeding rates of wild haddock (Melanogrammus aeglifinus) larvae four times per day during a 10-d cruise in the northern North Sea. Feeding activity was evaluated using indices of gut fullness, prey digestive state and biochemical measurements (tryptic enzyme activity). The gut fullness and the enzyme activity indices indicated moderate to high rates of food consumption throughout the cruise. Time series analysis of the three indices showed significant diel variability in all indices and enabled identification of significant lags between food uptake and peak digestive enzyme activity. The typical pattern of food consumption and digestion was characterized by maximal ingestion of prey early in the evening (19:00 hrs) and peak digestive enzyme activity at 01:00 hrs. The time scale over which enzyme activities reacted to prey ingestion was ca. 6 h, and is consistent with expectations from controlled laboratory experiments with other larval fish species. Significant diel variability in tryptic enzyme activity suggests that attempts to relate this measure of feeding success to other variables (e.g. food concentrations) should take care to accommodate natural cycles in feeding activity before making statistical comparisons.

Description: We investigate whether a process-oriented approach based on the results of field, laboratory, and modelling studies can be used to develop a stock�environment�recruitment model for Central Baltic cod (Gadus morhua). Based on exploratory statistical analysis, significant variables influencing survival of early life stages and varying systematically among spawning sites were incorporated into stock�recruitment models, first for major cod spawning sites and then combined for the entire Central Baltic. Variables identified included potential egg production by the spawning stock, abiotic conditions affecting survival of eggs, predation by clupeids on eggs, larval transport, and cannibalism. Results showed that recruitment in the most important spawning area, the Bornholm Basin, during 1976�1995 was related to egg production; however, other factors affecting survival of the eggs (oxygen conditions, predation) were also significant and when incorporated explained 69% of the variation in 0-group recruitment. In other spawning areas, variable hydrographic conditions did not allow for regular successful egg development. Hence, relatively simple models proved sufficient to predict recruitment of 0-group cod in these areas, suggesting that key biotic and abiotic processes can be successfully incorporated into recruitment models.

Description: Variations in oxygen conditions below the permanent halocline influence the ecosystem of the Baltic Sea through a number of mechanisms. In this study, we examine the effects of physical forcing on variations in the volume of deep oxygenated water suitable for reproductive success of central Baltic cod. Recent research has identified the importance of inflows of saline and oxygenated North Sea water into the Baltic Sea for the recruitment of Baltic cod. However, other processes have been suggested to modify this reproduction volume including variations in timing and volume of terrestrial runoff, variability of the solubility of oxygen due to variations in sea surface temperature as well as the influence of variations in wind stress. In order to examine the latter three mechanisms, we have performed simulations utilizing the Kiel Baltic Sea model for a period of a weak to moderate inflow of North Sea water into the Baltic, modifying wind stress, freshwater runoff and thermal inputs. The model is started from three-dimensional fields of temperature, salinity and oxygen obtained from a previous model run and forced by realistic atmospheric conditions. Results of this realistic reference run were compared to runs with modified meteorological forcing conditions and river runoff. From these simulations, it is apparent that processes other than major Baltic inflows have the potential to alter the reproduction volume of Baltic cod. Low near-surface air temperatures in the North Sea, the Skagerrak/Kattegat area and in the western Baltic influence the water mass properties (high oxygen solubility). Eastward oriented transports of these well-oxygenated highly saline water masses may have a significant positive impact on the Baltic cod reproduction volume in the Bornholm Basin. Finally, we analysed how large scale and local atmospheric forcing conditions are related to the identified major processes affecting the reproduction volume.

Description: Spatial and temporal variability in environmental factors can exert major influences on survival and growth of living organisms. However, in many key areas of fisheries science (e.g. growth, survival and recruitment determination), environmental heterogeneity is usually ignored because of insufficient environmental or fisheries data or lack of evidence that such heterogeneity impacts response variables. For the eastern Baltic Sea (ICES Subdivisions 25 to 32), we evaluated spatial and temporal differences in conditions affecting the survival of cod Gadus morhua L. eggs at survival on four distinct spawning sites within the assessment area. We intercalibrated ways of quantifying the volume of water ('reproductive volume') at each site where salinity, oxygen and temperature conditions permitted successful egg development. We have developed and compared a time series (1952 to 1996) of reproductive volumes among the areas to identify spatial differences. The results of 2 independent volume-estimation methods are comparable, indicating that highly significant differences exist among the sites, and that the westernmost spawning ground, Bornholm Basin, has on average the highest reproductive volume and the lowest variability among the 4 sites. These findings may be useful in evaluating how spatial and temporal variability in environmental conditions affect egg hatching success and possibly recruitment in the Baltic stock.