Note: Intro -- Integrated Catastrophe Risk Modeling -- Preface -- Contents -- Part I: Integrated Modeling for Informing Risk Management Policies -- Chapter 1: Catastrophe Models for Informing Risk Management Policy: An Introduction -- 1.1 Scope -- 1.2 Risk Management and Systems Analysis -- 1.3 Catastrophe Models -- 1.4 Catastrophe Models As Decision and Policy Support -- 1.5 Book Overview -- 1.5.1 Part I: Catastrophe Models for Informing Risk Management Policy -- 1.5.2 Part II: Disasters and Growth: Modeling and Managing Country-Wide Catastrophe Risk -- 1.5.3 Part III: Tisza River Basin in Hungary: Flood Risk Management, Multi-stakeholder Processes and Conflict Resolution -- 1.6 Part I: Catastrophe Models for Informing Risk Management Policy -- 1.6.1 Introduction -- 1.6.2 Chapter Descriptions -- References -- Chapter 2: Modeling Risk and Uncertainty: Managing Flash Flood Risk in Vienna -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Concepts of Risk -- 2.3 Aleatory Uncertainty, Epistemic Uncertainty, and Risk Curves -- 2.4 Flash Floods in Vienna and Its Subway System -- 2.5 Stochastic Optimization (STO) Model -- 2.6 Risk Management Measures and Integrated Modeling -- 2.7 Summary of the Results -- 2.8 Some Conclusions -- References -- Chapter 3: Modeling Catastrophe Risk for Designing Insurance Systems -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 The Standard Insurance Risk Model -- 3.3 Overview of Case Studies -- 3.4 Stochastic Optimization (STO) Model -- 3.5 Insolvency, Stopping Time, and Nonsmooth Risk Functions -- 3.6 The Tuscany Region Case Study -- 3.7 The Solution Procedure -- 3.8 Conclusions -- References -- Chapter 4: Multiple Criteria Decision Making for Flood Risk Management -- 4.1 Introduction and Background -- 4.2 The Framework -- 4.3 The Simulation Model -- 4.4 Policy Strategies -- 4.5 A Decision Analytical Tool -- 4.6 Adding Different Perspectives. , 4.7 Case Study: Area and Setting -- 4.8 Criteria -- 4.9 Strategies -- 4.10 Analysis of Strategies -- 4.10.1 The Decision Tree -- 4.10.2 Comparing Stakeholders -- 4.10.3 Weighting All Stakeholders Equally -- 4.10.4 Pareto Optimal Solution -- 4.11 Concluding Remarks -- References -- Chapter 5: Dams and Catastrophe Risk: Discounting in Long Term Planning -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Ethical Goals and Constraints -- 5.2.1 Spatio-Temporal Heterogeneities -- 5.2.2 Multiagent Aspects -- 5.2.3 Safety Constraints -- 5.2.4 Discounting -- 5.2.5 Assessment vs. Robust Solutions -- 5.3 Flood Management Model -- 5.4 Case Study -- 5.4.1 Discounting and Robust Decisions -- 5.5 Risk Communication, Public Perception and Participation -- 5.5.1 Intertemporal Inconsistency of Discounting -- 5.5.2 Commitment to Actions -- 5.6 Some Conclusions for Policy Evaluations -- References -- Part II: Disasters and Growth: Modeling and Managing Country-Wide Catastrophe Risk -- Chapter 6: Modeling Aggregate Economic Risk: An Introduction -- 6.1 Disasters and Economic Development: The Empirical Evidence -- 6.2 Modeling Macroeconomic Impacts of Disasters -- 6.3 Modeling Disaster Risk Explicitly -- 6.4 Contributions in this Volume -- 6.5 Concluding Remarks -- References -- Chapter 7: Economic Growth Under Catastrophes -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 Sustained Economic Growth -- 7.3 Programming Adjustment of Growth: Ex-Ante and Ex-Post Strategies -- 7.4 Convergence, Traps and Thresholds -- 7.5 Concluding Remarks -- References -- Chapter 8: Modeling Macro Scale Disaster Risk: The CATSIM Model -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 The Rationale for Financing Disaster Risk -- 8.2.1 Defining Risk and Vulnerability -- 8.2.2 Vulnerability and Risk Related to Natural Hazards -- 8.2.3 Fiscal and Economic Implications of Disasters -- 8.2.4 Risk Financing Options for Reducing Financial Vulnerability. , 8.3 The CATSIM Model Approach -- 8.3.1 Methodology and Structure -- 8.3.2 Methodological Steps of CATSIM -- 8.3.3 Algorithm for Calculating Financing Available from Ex-Ante and Ex-Post Sources -- 8.3.4 The Economic Module -- 8.3.5 Representing Uncertainty -- 8.4 Conclusions -- References -- Chapter 9: Managing Indirect Economic Consequences of Disaster Risk: The Case of Nepal -- 9.1 Assessing the Economic Impacts of Disasters in Nepal -- 9.2 The Burden of Natural Disasters in Nepal -- 9.2.1 Socioeconomic Context -- 9.2.2 The Direct and Indirect Burden of Natural Disasters -- 9.3 Policy Options for Managing Disaster Risk -- 9.3.1 Overview -- 9.3.2 Planning Economic Risk -- 9.3.3 Relevance of Risk for Assessing Options -- 9.4 Assessing and Planning for Economic Risk: CATSIM -- 9.4.1 Methodological Steps of CATSIM -- 9.4.2 Modeling Aggregate Impacts -- 9.4.3 Modeling Sectoral Impacts -- 9.5 Results -- 9.5.1 Assessment of Direct Asset Risks (Step 1) -- 9.5.2 Estimation of Fiscal Resilience of the Public Sector (Step 2) -- 9.5.3 Fiscal Vulnerability and the ``Resource Gap´´ (Step 3) -- 9.5.4 Mainstreaming Disaster Risk into Macroeconomic and Development Planning (Step 4) -- 9.5.4.1 Aggregate Analysis -- 9.5.4.2 Intersectoral Linkages -- 9.6 Discussion and Conclusions -- Appendix -- SAM Multiplier Coefficients Table for Nepal Based on Acharya (2007) -- References -- Part III: Tisza River Basin in Hungary: Flood Risk Management, Multi-stakeholder Processes and Conflict Resolution -- Chapter 10: Catastrophe Models and Policy Processes: Managing Flood Risk in the Hungarian Tisza River Basin - An Introduction -- 10.1 Scope -- 10.2 Background and Context -- 10.2.1 The River Defense Paradigm -- 10.2.2 The New Vasarhelyi Plan -- 10.2.3 Sharing Costs: A Hungarian Compensation and Insurance System -- 10.3 How Models Can Contribute to Flood Risk Management. , 10.4 Integration -- References -- Chapter 11: Social Indicators of Vulnerability to Floods: An Empirical Case Study in Two Upper Tisza Flood Basins -- 11.1 Introduction -- 11.2 Methodology -- 11.2.1 Sample -- 11.2.2 Method -- 11.3 Summary of Questionnaire Responses -- 11.3.1 Exposure -- 11.3.2 Preparedness -- 11.3.3 Physical and Mental Health -- 11.3.4 Education -- 11.3.5 Household Economic Data -- 11.3.6 Social Capital -- 11.3.7 The Impacts of Floods -- 11.4 Vulnerability Indicators -- 11.5 Conclusions and Recommendations -- References -- Chapter 12: Designing a Flood Management and Insurance System in Hungary: A Model-Based Stakeholder Approach -- 12.1 Introduction -- 12.2 Stakeholder Views -- 12.2.1 State Protection (River Defence) -- 12.2.2 Individual Responsibility -- 12.2.3 Ecological Development (Working Landscape) -- 12.3 Designing a National Insurance Program -- 12.4 The Flood Risk Policy Model -- 12.5 The Model-Assisted Stakeholder Workshop -- 12.5.1 Option A1: A Mixed Public-Private System -- 12.5.1.1 Model Simulations for Option A1 -- 12.5.2 Option B1: Private Responsibility and Insurance -- 12.5.2.1 Model Simulations for Option B1 -- 12.5.3 Option C1: A Public Insurance Fund -- 12.5.3.1 Model Simulations for Option C1 -- 12.6 A Consensus Policy Path -- 12.6.1 Comparing Options -- 12.6.2 The Hungarian Insurance Legislation -- 12.7 Conclusions -- References -- Chapter 13: Consensus by Simulation: a Flood Model for Participatory Policy Making -- 13.1 Introduction -- 13.2 Simulation Model -- 13.2.1 Disaster Module -- 13.3 Policy Module -- 13.4 Consequence Module -- 13.4.1 Damages -- 13.4.2 Governmental Wealth -- 13.4.3 Insurance Company -- 13.4.4 Property Owner (Individual and Aggregated) -- 13.5 Interface Module -- 13.5.1 The Main Window: Choose a Mode -- 13.5.2 Settings Windows: Set Variables -- 13.6 Results Window: View Results. , 13.7 Stakeholder Workshop -- 13.8 Conclusions -- References -- Chapter 14: A Risk-Based Decision Analytic Approach to Assessing Multi-stakeholder Policy Problems -- 14.1 Introduction -- 14.2 A Decision Theoretical Approach -- 14.2.1 Decision Analysis -- 14.3 The Policy Problem Formulation -- 14.4 Analysing the Policy Scenarios -- 14.4.1 Representation of the Decision Problem -- 14.4.2 Evaluation of the Policy Options -- 14.5 Summary and Concluding Remarks -- References -- Chapter 15: Optimizing Public Private Risk Transfer Systems for Flood Risk Management in the Upper Tisza Region -- 15.1 Introduction -- 15.2 A Catastrophe Model -- 15.3 Adaptive Monte Carlo Optimization -- 15.4 The Stochastic Optimization Model -- 15.5 Demand for Ex-Ante Contingent Credit -- 15.6 Concluding Remarks -- References -- Chapter 16: Flood Risk in a Changing Climate: A Multilevel Approach for Risk Management -- 16.1 Introduction -- 16.2 Direct Flood Risk at the National and Regional Level in Hungary -- 16.2.1 Direct Flood Risk Estimation Methodology -- 16.2.2 Flood Risk in Hungary -- 16.3 Estimating Future Flood Losses in the Tisza Regions Taking Account of Climate Change -- 16.4 Risk Management Against Increases in Losses -- 16.5 Conclusion -- References -- Index.

Note: Cover -- Transboundary Risk Management -- Copyright -- Contents -- Preface -- Foreword -- Chapter 1 Introduction -- Chapter 2 Swedish Aid and the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant -- Chapter 3 Genetically Modified Crops: What Transboundary Harmonization in Europe? -- Chapter 4 Transboundary Air Pollution: Lessons for Useful Analysis -- Chapter 5 Cultures of Uncertainty - Transboundary Risks and BSE in Europe -- Chapter 6 A Transborder Environmental Controversy on the Danube: The Gabcikovo-Nagymaros Dam System -- Chapter 7 Transboundary Risk Management in the South: A Nepalese Perspective on Himalayan Water Projects -- Chapter 8 Border Crossings -- Chapter 9 Public Participation across Borders -- Chapter 10 International Negotiation and the Management of Transboundary Risks -- Chapter 11 Transboundary Environmental Risk Management in the New Millennium: Lessons for Theory and Practice -- Address by Birgitta Dahl, Speaker of the Swedish Parliament -- Index.

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