Description: Here, we analyze future projections of cyclone activity in the Mediterranean region at the end of the twenty-first century based on an ensemble of state-of-the-art fully-coupled Regional Climate System Models (RCSMs) from the Med-CORDEX initiative under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. Despite some noticeable biases, all the RCSMs capture spatial patterns and cyclone activity key characteristics in the region and thus all of them can be considered as plausible representations of the future evolution of Mediterranean cyclones. In general, the RCSMs show at the end of the twenty-first century a decrease in the number and an overall weakening of cyclones moving across the Mediterranean. Five out of seven RCSMs simulate also a decrease of the mean size of the systems. Moreover, in agreement with what already observed in CMIP5 projections for the area, the models suggest an increase in the Central part of the Mediterranean region and a decrease in the South-eastern part of the region in the cyclone-related wind speed and precipitation rate. These rather two opposite tendencies observed in the precipitation should compensate and amplify, respectively, the effect of the overall reduction of the frequency of cyclones on the water budget over the Central and South-eastern part of the region. A pronounced inter-model spread among the RCSMs emerges for the projected changes in the cyclone adjusted deepening rate, seasonal cycle occurrence and associated precipitation and wind patterns over some areas of the basin such as Ionian Sea and Iberian Peninsula. The differences observed appear to be determined by the driving Global Circulation Model (GCM) and influenced by the RCSM physics and internal variability. These results point to the importance of (1) better characterizing the range of plausible futures by relying on ensembles of models that explore well the existing diversity of GCMs and RCSMs as well as the climate natural variability and (2) better understanding the driving mechanisms of the future evolution of Mediterranean cyclones properties.

Description: Two deep cyclones occurred in the Mediterranean between 25–31 October 2012, during the first Special Observation Period (SOP1) of the Hydrological cycle in Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX). Both cyclones were associated with extreme rainfall covering a large part of the western Mediterranean Sea, where 24-h accumulated precipitation measurements exceeded 150 mm. We combine complementary observations from airborne radar and lidar systems, ZEUS lightning detection network and meteorological surface stations along with satellite diagnostics on deep convection, for a detailed microphysics and (thermo-)dynamical analysis of the two extreme rainfall cases. In addition, we use operational analysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for analyzing the synoptic conditions and diagnosing strongly ascending air masses in the vicinity of the cyclones, so-called warm conveyor belts (WCBs). The analysis revealed the different physical characteristics of the two cyclones responsible for the extreme rainfalls. Both cyclones were associated with a WCB and a comma cloud, but deep convection, intense lightning and very cold cloud tops occurred only for the first case while the second cyclone was mostly associated with stratiform rainfall, a strong WCB, and only few embedded cells of deep convection.