In:
eLife, eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd, Vol. 6 ( 2017-09-12)
Abstract:
In epidemiology, the “basic reproductive number” describes how efficiently a disease is transmitted, and represents the average number of new infections that an infected individual causes. If this number is less than one, many people do not infect anybody and hence the transmission chains die out. On the other hand, if the basic reproductive number is larger than one, an infected person infects on average more than one new individual, which leads to the virus or bacteria spreading in a self-sustained way. Turk et al. have now developed a method to estimate the basic reproductive number using the genetic sequences of the virus or bacteria, and have used it to investigate how efficiently HIV spreads among Swiss heterosexuals. The results show that the basic reproductive number of HIV in this group is far below the critical value of one and that over the last years this number has been decreasing. Furthermore, the basic reproductive number differs for different subtypes of the HIV virus, indicating that the geographical region where the infection was acquired may play a role in transmission. Turk et al. also found that people who are diagnosed later or who often have sex with occasional partners spread the virus more efficiently. These findings might be helpful for policy makers as they indicate that the risk of self-sustained transmission in this group in Switzerland is small. Furthermore the method allows HIV epidemics to be monitored at high resolution using sequence data, assesses the success of currently implemented preventive measures, and helps to target subgroups who are at higher risk of an infection – for instance, by supporting frequent HIV testing of these people. The method developed by Turk et al. could also prove useful for assessing the danger of other epidemics.
Type of Medium:
Online Resource
ISSN:
2050-084X
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.28721.001
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.28721.002
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.28721.003
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.28721.004
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.28721.005
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.28721.006
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.28721.007
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.28721.008
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.28721.009
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.28721.010
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.28721.011
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.28721.012
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.28721.013
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.28721.014
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.28721.015
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.28721.016
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.28721.017
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.28721.018
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.28721.019
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.28721.020
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.28721.021
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.28721.022
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.28721.023
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.28721.024
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.28721.025
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.28721.026
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.28721.027
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.28721.028
DOI:
10.7554/eLife.28721.029
Language:
English
Publisher:
eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd
Publication Date:
2017
detail.hit.zdb_id:
2687154-3
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