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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Present-Day Atmospheric Simulations Using GISS ModelE: Comparison to In Situ, Satellite, and Reanalysis Data
    American Meteorological Society ; 2006
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 19, No. 2 ( 2006-01-15), p. 153-192
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 19, No. 2 ( 2006-01-15), p. 153-192
    Abstract: A full description of the ModelE version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) and results are presented for present-day climate simulations (ca. 1979). This version is a complete rewrite of previous models incorporating numerous improvements in basic physics, the stratospheric circulation, and forcing fields. Notable changes include the following: the model top is now above the stratopause, the number of vertical layers has increased, a new cloud microphysical scheme is used, vegetation biophysics now incorporates a sensitivity to humidity, atmospheric turbulence is calculated over the whole column, and new land snow and lake schemes are introduced. The performance of the model using three configurations with different horizontal and vertical resolutions is compared to quality-controlled in situ data, remotely sensed and reanalysis products. Overall, significant improvements over previous models are seen, particularly in upper-atmosphere temperatures and winds, cloud heights, precipitation, and sea level pressure. Data–model comparisons continue, however, to highlight persistent problems in the marine stratocumulus regions.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0442 , 0894-8755
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3612.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2006
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Relative Importance of Solar and Anthropogenic Forcing of Climate Change between the Maunder Minimum and the Present
    American Meteorological Society ; 2004
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 17, No. 5 ( 2004-03), p. 906-929
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 17, No. 5 ( 2004-03), p. 906-929
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017〈0906:TRIOSA〉2.0.CO;2
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2004
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 3
    Online Resource
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    A New Look at Stratospheric Sudden Warmings. Part II: Evaluation of Numerical Model Simulations
    American Meteorological Society ; 2007
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 20, No. 3 ( 2007-02-01), p. 470-488
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 20, No. 3 ( 2007-02-01), p. 470-488
    Abstract: The simulation of major midwinter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) in six stratosphere-resolving general circulation models (GCMs) is examined. The GCMs are compared to a new climatology of SSWs, based on the dynamical characteristics of the events. First, the number, type, and temporal distribution of SSW events are evaluated. Most of the models show a lower frequency of SSW events than the climatology, which has a mean frequency of 6.0 SSWs per decade. Statistical tests show that three of the six models produce significantly fewer SSWs than the climatology, between 1.0 and 2.6 SSWs per decade. Second, four process-based diagnostics are calculated for all of the SSW events in each model. It is found that SSWs in the GCMs compare favorably with dynamical benchmarks for SSW established in the first part of the study. These results indicate that GCMs are capable of quite accurately simulating the dynamics required to produce SSWs, but with lower frequency than the climatology. Further dynamical diagnostics hint that, in at least one case, this is due to a lack of meridional heat flux in the lower stratosphere. Even though the SSWs simulated by most GCMs are dynamically realistic when compared to the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis, the reasons for the relative paucity of SSWs in GCMs remains an important and open question.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0442 , 0894-8755
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3994.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2007
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Arctic Tropospheric Warming: Causes and Linkages to Lower Latitudes
    American Meteorological Society ; 2015
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 28, No. 6 ( 2015-03-15), p. 2154-2167
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 28, No. 6 ( 2015-03-15), p. 2154-2167
    Abstract: Arctic temperatures have risen dramatically relative to those of lower latitudes in recent decades, with a common supposition being that sea ice declines are primarily responsible for amplified Arctic tropospheric warming. This conjecture is central to a hypothesis in which Arctic sea ice loss forms the beginning link of a causal chain that includes weaker westerlies in midlatitudes, more persistent and amplified midlatitude waves, and more extreme weather. Through model experimentation, the first step in this chain is examined by quantifying contributions of various physical factors to October–December (OND) mean Arctic tropospheric warming since 1979. The results indicate that the main factors responsible for Arctic tropospheric warming are recent decadal fluctuations and long-term changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs), both located outside the Arctic. Arctic sea ice decline is the largest contributor to near-surface Arctic temperature increases, but it accounts for only about 20% of the magnitude of 1000–500-hPa warming. These findings thus disconfirm the hypothesis that deep tropospheric warming in the Arctic during OND has resulted substantially from sea ice loss. Contributions of the same factors to recent midlatitude climate trends are then examined. It is found that pronounced circulation changes over the North Atlantic and North Pacific result mainly from recent decadal ocean fluctuations and internal atmospheric variability, while the effects of sea ice declines are very small. Therefore, a hypothesized causal chain of hemisphere-wide connections originating from Arctic sea ice loss is not supported.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00095.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2015
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Life Cycle of Northern Hemisphere Downward Wave Coupling between the Stratosphere and Troposphere
    American Meteorological Society ; 2013
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 26, No. 5 ( 2013-03-01), p. 1745-1763
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 26, No. 5 ( 2013-03-01), p. 1745-1763
    Abstract: The life cycle of Northern Hemisphere downward wave coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere via wave reflection is analyzed. Downward wave coupling events are defined by extreme negative values of a wave coupling index based on the leading principal component of the daily wave-1 heat flux at 30 hPa. The life cycle occurs over a 28-day period. In the stratosphere there is a transition from positive to negative total wave-1 heat flux and westward to eastward phase tilt with height of the wave-1 geopotential height field. In addition, the zonal-mean zonal wind in the upper stratosphere weakens leading to negative vertical shear. Following the evolution in the stratosphere there is a shift toward the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the troposphere. The pattern develops from a large westward-propagating wave-1 anomaly in the high-latitude North Atlantic sector. The subsequent equatorward propagation leads to a positive anomaly in midlatitudes. The near-surface temperature and circulation anomalies are consistent with a positive NAO phase. The results suggest that wave reflection events can directly influence tropospheric weather. Finally, winter seasons dominated by extreme wave coupling and stratospheric vortex events are compared. The largest impacts in the troposphere occur during the extreme negative seasons for both indices, namely seasons with multiple wave reflection events leading to a positive NAO phase or seasons with major sudden stratospheric warmings (weak vortex) leading to a negative NAO phase. The results reveal that the dynamical coupling between the stratosphere and NAO involves distinct dynamical mechanisms that can only be characterized by separate wave coupling and vortex indices.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00251.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2013
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
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  • 6
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    A Multiscale Analysis of the Extreme Weather Events over Western Russia and Northern Pakistan during July 2010
    American Meteorological Society ; 2012
    In:  Monthly Weather Review Vol. 140, No. 5 ( 2012-05-01), p. 1639-1664
    Details
    In: Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 140, No. 5 ( 2012-05-01), p. 1639-1664
    Abstract: This manuscript presents a detailed multiscale analysis—using observations, model analyses, and ensemble forecasts—of the extreme heat wave over Russia and historic floods over Pakistan during late July 2010, with an emphasis on the floods over northern Pakistan. The results show that recirculation of air and dynamically driven subsidence occurring with the intensification of the blocking anticyclone in late July 2010 were key factors for producing the exceptionally warm temperatures over western Russia. Downstream energy dispersion from the blocking region led to trough deepening northwest of Pakistan and ridge building over the Tibetan Plateau, thereby providing the linkage between the Russian heat wave and Pakistan flood events on the large scale, in agreement with previous studies. The extratropical downstream energy dispersion and enhanced convective outflow on the large scale associated with the active phase of the Madden–Julian oscillation facilitated the formation of an intense upper-level jet northwest of Pakistan. During this same period an intense southeasterly, low-level, barrier jet–like feature formed over northern Pakistan in conjunction with a westward-moving monsoon depression. This low-level jet and deep easterly flow on the equatorward flank of an anomalous anticyclone over the Tibetan Plateau further enhanced the transport of deep tropical moisture into Pakistan and produced a sustained upslope flow and an extended period of active convection, thereby providing an important contribution leading to the exceptional rainfall amounts. The deep easterly flow and intense low-level jet were features that were absent during previous convective episodes over northern Pakistan in 2010, and hence, were likely key factors in the increased severity of the late July event.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-0644 , 1520-0493
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-11-00191.1
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2012
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2033056-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 202616-8
    SSG: 14
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  • 7
    Online Resource
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    Regional Precipitation Trends: Distinguishing Natural Variability from Anthropogenic Forcing
    American Meteorological Society ; 2010
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 23, No. 8 ( 2010-04-15), p. 2131-2145
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 23, No. 8 ( 2010-04-15), p. 2131-2145
    Abstract: In this study, the nature and causes for observed regional precipitation trends during 1977–2006 are diagnosed. It is found that major features of regional trends in annual precipitation during 1977–2006 are consistent with an atmospheric response to observed sea surface temperature (SST) variability. This includes drying over the eastern Pacific Ocean that extends into western portions of the Americas related to a cooling of eastern Pacific SSTs, and broad increases in rainfall over the tropical Eastern Hemisphere, including a Sahelian rainfall recovery and increased wetness over the Indo–West Pacific related to North Atlantic and Indo–West Pacific ocean warming. It is further determined that these relationships between SST and rainfall change are generally not symptomatic of human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols. The intensity of regional trends simulated in climate models using observed time variability in greenhouse gases, tropospheric sulfate aerosol, and solar and volcanic aerosol forcing are appreciably weaker than those observed and also weaker than those simulated in atmospheric models using only observed SST forcing. The pattern of rainfall trends occurring in response to such external radiative forcing also departs significantly from observations, especially a simulated increase in rainfall over the tropical Pacific and southeastern Australia that are opposite in sign to the actual drying in these areas. Additional experiments illustrate that the discrepancy between observed and GHG-forced rainfall changes during 1977–2006 results mostly from the differences between observed and externally forced SST trends. Only weak rainfall sensitivity is found to occur in response to the uniform distribution of SST warming that is induced by GHG and aerosol forcing, whereas the particular pattern of the observed SST change that includes an increased SST contrast between the east Pacific and the Indian Ocean, and strong regional warming of the North Atlantic Ocean, was a key driver of regional rainfall trends. The results of this attribution study on the causes for 1977–2006 regional rainfall changes are used to discuss prediction challenges including the likelihood that recent rainfall trends might persist.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0442 , 0894-8755
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI3420.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2010
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  • 8
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    Characterizing Recent Trends in U.S. Heavy Precipitation
    American Meteorological Society ; 2016
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 29, No. 7 ( 2016-04-01), p. 2313-2332
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 29, No. 7 ( 2016-04-01), p. 2313-2332
    Abstract: Time series of U.S. daily heavy precipitation (95th percentile) are analyzed to determine factors responsible for regionality and seasonality in their 1979–2013 trends. For annual conditions, contiguous U.S. trends have been characterized by increases in precipitation associated with heavy daily events across the northern United States and decreases across the southern United States. Diagnosis of climate simulations (CCSM4 and CAM4) reveals that the evolution of observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) was a more important factor influencing these trends than boundary condition changes linked to external radiative forcing alone. Since 1979, the latter induces widespread, but mostly weak, increases in precipitation associated with heavy daily events. The former induces a meridional pattern of northern U.S. increases and southern U.S. decreases as observed, the magnitude of which closely aligns with observed changes, especially over the south and far west. Analysis of model ensemble spread reveals that appreciable 35-yr trends in heavy daily precipitation can occur in the absence of forcing, thereby limiting detection of the weak anthropogenic influence at regional scales. Analysis of the seasonality in heavy daily precipitation trends supports physical arguments that their changes during 1979–2013 have been intimately linked to internal decadal ocean variability and less so to human-induced climate change. Most of the southern U.S. decrease has occurred during the cold season that has been dynamically driven by an atmospheric circulation reminiscent of teleconnections linked to cold tropical eastern Pacific SSTs. Most of the northeastern U.S. increase has been a warm season phenomenon, the immediate cause for which remains unresolved.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0441.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2016
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
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  • 9
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    Impacts of Interactive Stratospheric Chemistry on Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate Change in the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5)
    American Meteorological Society ; 2016
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 29, No. 9 ( 2016-05-01), p. 3199-3218
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 29, No. 9 ( 2016-05-01), p. 3199-3218
    Abstract: Stratospheric ozone depletion plays a major role in driving climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. To date, many climate models prescribe the stratospheric ozone layer’s evolution using monthly and zonally averaged ozone fields. However, the prescribed ozone underestimates Antarctic ozone depletion and lacks zonal asymmetries. This study investigates the impact of using interactive stratospheric chemistry instead of prescribed ozone on climate change simulations of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean. Two sets of 1960–2010 ensemble transient simulations are conducted with the coupled ocean version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5: one with interactive stratospheric chemistry and the other with prescribed ozone derived from the same interactive simulations. The model’s climatology is evaluated using observations and reanalysis. Comparison of the 1979–2010 climate trends between these two simulations reveals that interactive chemistry has important effects on climate change not only in the Antarctic stratosphere, troposphere, and surface, but also in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic sea ice. Interactive chemistry causes stronger Antarctic lower stratosphere cooling and circumpolar westerly acceleration during November–January. It enhances stratosphere–troposphere coupling and leads to significantly larger tropospheric and surface westerly changes. The significantly stronger surface wind stress trends cause larger increases of the Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation, leading to year-round stronger ocean warming near the surface and enhanced Antarctic sea ice decrease.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0572.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2016
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
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  • 10
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    Tug of war on the jet stream
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2011
    In:  Nature Climate Change Vol. 1, No. 1 ( 2011-4), p. 29-31
    Details
    In: Nature Climate Change, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 1, No. 1 ( 2011-4), p. 29-31
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1758-678X , 1758-6798
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1065
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2011
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2603450-5
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