Description: ERA-Interim reanalysis data and data of the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2 (HadGEM2) are compared with continuous meteorological observations of near-surface wind and temperature carried out for more than 30 years at Neumayer station, situated on the Ekstro¨m Ice Shelf of Antarctica. Significant temperature correlations between Neumayer climate and the climate of both the interior of the Antarctic continent and oceanic regions north of Neumayer are investigated using observational data and model data. Mean sea level pressure fluctuations at Neumayer can be connected to changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Shortcomings in the ERA-Interim reanalysis data with spurious trends of up to 7 C over 31 years are identified at several places in Antarctica. Furthermore, it is shown that katabatic winds in both the ERA-Interim reanalysis data and in the HadGEM2 climate model are underrepresented in frequency and speed, presumably due to the problems in representing topography in these relatively coarse resolution models. This may be one reason for the positive 2m air temperature bias of 3 C in the models at Neumayer station. The results of this study reemphasize that climatic trends in regions with a low station density can not be assessed solely from model data. Thus, it is absolutely necessary to maintain polar observatories such as Neumayer station to quantify climate change over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica.

Description: We developed a new version of the Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model (AWI-CM3), which has higher skills in representing the observed climatology and better computational efficiency than its predecessors. Its ocean component FESOM2 (Finite-volumE Sea ice-Ocean Model) has the multi-resolution functionality typical of unstructured-mesh models while still featuring a scalability and efficiency similar to regular-grid models. The atmospheric component OpenIFS (CY43R3) enables the use of the latest developments in the numerical-weather-prediction community in climate sciences. In this paper we describe the coupling of the model components and evaluate the model performance on a variable-resolution (25-125 km) ocean mesh and a 61 km atmosphere grid, which serves as a reference and starting point for other ongoing research activities with AWI-CM3. This includes the exploration of high and variable resolution and the development of a full Earth system model as well as the creation of a new sea ice prediction system. At this early development stage and with the given coarse to medium resolutions, the model already features above-CMIP6-average skills (where CMIP6 denotes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6) in representing the climatology and competitive model throughput. Finally we identify remaining biases and suggest further improvements to be made to the model.

Description: Various observational estimates indicate growing mass loss at Antarctica's margins but also heavier precipitation across the continent. In the future, heavier precipitation fallen on Antarctica will counteract any stronger iceberg discharge and increased basal melting of floating ice shelves driven by a warming ocean. Here, we use from nine CMIP5 models future projections, ranging from strong mitigation efforts to business-as-usual, to run an ensemble of ice-sheet simulations. We test, how the precipitation boundary condition determines Antarctica's sea-level contribution. The spatial and temporal varying climate forcings drive ice-sheet simulations. Hence, our ensemble inherits all spatial and temporal climate patterns, which is in contrast to a spatial mean forcing. Regardless of the applied boundary condition and forcing, some areas will lose ice in the future, such as the glaciers from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet draining into the Amundsen Sea. In general the simulated ice-sheet thickness grows in a broad marginal strip, where incoming storms deliver topographically controlled precipitation. This strip shows the largest ice thickness differences between the applied precipitation boundary conditions too. On average Antarctica's ice mass shrinks for all future scenarios if the precipitation is scaled by the spatial temperature anomalies coming from the CMIP5 models. In this approach, we use the relative precipitation increment per degree warming as invariant scaling constant. In contrast, Antarctica gains mass in our simulations if we apply the simulated precipitation anomalies of the CMIP5 models directly. Here, the scaling factors show a distinct spatial pattern across Antarctica. Furthermore, the diagnosed mean scaling across all considered climate forcings is larger than the values deduced from ice cores. In general, the scaling is higher across the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, lower across the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and lowest around the Siple Coast. The latter is located on the east side of the Ross Ice Shelf.