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  • Biogeochemistry  (3)
  • Climate prediction  (3)
  • Climate warming  (3)
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  • 1
    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Key words Global change ; Carbon dioxide ; Biogeochemistry ; Net primary production (NPP) ; Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP)
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Although there is a great deal of information concerning responses to increases in atmospheric CO2 at the tissue and plant levels, there are substantially fewer studies that have investigated ecosystem-level responses in the context of integrated carbon, water, and nutrient cycles. Because our understanding of ecosystem responses to elevated CO2 is incomplete, modeling is a tool that can be used to investigate the role of plant and soil interactions in the response of terrestrial ecosystems to elevated CO2. In this study, we analyze the responses of net primary production (NPP) to doubled CO2 from 355 to 710 ppmv among three biogeochemistry models in the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP): BIOME-BGC (BioGeochemical Cycles), Century, and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM). For the conterminous United States, doubled atmospheric CO2 causes NPP to increase by 5% in Century, 8% in TEM, and 11% in BIOME-BGC. Multiple regression analyses between the NPP response to doubled CO2 and the mean annual temperature and annual precipitation of biomes or grid cells indicate that there are negative relationships between precipitation and the response of NPP to doubled CO2 for all three models. In contrast, there are different relationships between temperature and the response of NPP to doubled CO2 for the three models: there is a negative relationship in the responses of BIOME-BGC, no relationship in the responses of Century, and a positive relationship in the responses of TEM. In BIOME-BGC, the NPP response to doubled CO2 is controlled by the change in transpiration associated with reduced leaf conductance to water vapor. This change affects soil water, then leaf area development and, finally, NPP. In Century, the response of NPP to doubled CO2 is controlled by changes in decomposition rates associated with increased soil moisture that results from reduced evapotranspiration. This change affects nitrogen availability for plants, which influences NPP. In TEM, the NPP response to doubled CO2 is controlled by increased carboxylation which is modified by canopy conductance and the degree to which nitrogen constraints cause down-regulation of photosynthesis. The implementation of these different mechanisms has consequences for the spatial pattern of NPP responses, and represents, in part, conceptual uncertainty about controls over NPP responses. Progress in reducing these uncertainties requires research focused at the ecosystem level to understand how interactions between the carbon, nitrogen, and water cycles influence the response of NPP to elevated atmospheric CO2.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 2
    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Global change ; Temperate forests ; Forest soils ; Biogeochemistry ; Global warming
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract We conducted several experiments to determine a procedure for uniformly warming soil 5° C above ambient using a buried heating cable. These experiments produced a successful design that could: 1) maintain a temperature difference of 5° C over a wide range of environmental conditions; 2) reduce inter-cable temperture variability to ca. 1.5° C; 3) maintain a temperature difference of 5° C near the edges of the plot; and 4) respond rapidly to changes in the environment. In addition, this design required electrical power only 42% of the time. Preliminary measurements indicate that heating increased CO2 emission by a factor of ca. 1.6 and decreased the C concentration in the O soil horizon by as much as 36%. In addition, warming the soil accelerated the emergence and early growth of the wild lily of the valley (Maianthemum canadense Desf.). The relationship between CO2 flux and soil temperature derived from our soil warming experiment was consistent with data from other hardwood forests around the world. Since the other hardwood forests were warmed naturally, it appears that for soil respiration, warming the soil with buried heating cables differs little from natural, aboveground warming. By warming soil beyond the range of natural variability, a multi-site, long-term soil warming experiment may be valuable in helping us understand how ecosystems will respond to global warming.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Blackwell for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecology Letters 12 (2009): E15-E18, doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2009.01332.x.
    Description: Hartley et al. question whether reduction in Rmass, under experimental warming, arises because of the biomass method. We show the method they treat as independent yields the same result. We describe why the substrate-depletion hypothesis cannot alone explain observed responses, and urge caution in the interpretation of the seasonal data.
    Description: This research was supported by the Office of Science (BER), U.S. Department of Energy, the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation and U.S. National Science Foundation grants to the Coweeta LTER program.
    Keywords: Acclimation ; Adaptation ; Soil respiration ; Thermal biology ; Temperature ; Carbon cycling ; Climate change ; Climate warming ; Microbial community ; CO2
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Preprint
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2008. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Blackwell for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecology Letters 11 (2008): 1316-1327, doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01251.x.
    Description: In the short-term heterotrophic soil respiration is strongly and positively related to temperature. In the long-term its response to temperature is uncertain. One reason for this is because in field experiments increases in respiration due to warming are relatively short-lived. The explanations proposed for this ephemeral response include depletion of fast-cycling, soil carbon pools and thermal adaptation of microbial respiration. Using a 〉15 year soil warming experiment in a mid-latitude forest, we show that the apparent ‘acclimation’ of soil respiration at the ecosystem scale results from combined effects of reductions in soil carbon pools and microbial biomass, and thermal adaptation of microbial respiration. Mass specific respiration rates were lower when seasonal temperatures were higher, suggesting that rate reductions under experimental warming likely occurred through temperature-induced changes in the microbial community. Our results imply that stimulatory effects of global temperature rise on soil respiration rates may be lower than currently predicted.
    Description: This research was supported by the Office of Science (BER), U.S. Department of Energy and the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation.
    Keywords: Acclimation ; Adaptation ; Soil respiration ; Thermal biology ; Temperature ; Carbon cycling ; Climate change ; Climate warming ; Microbial community ; CO2
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Preprint
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2009. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 22 (2009): 5175–5204, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2863.1.
    Description: The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model is used to make probabilistic projections of climate change from 1861 to 2100. Since the model’s first projections were published in 2003, substantial improvements have been made to the model, and improved estimates of the probability distributions of uncertain input parameters have become available. The new projections are considerably warmer than the 2003 projections; for example, the median surface warming in 2091–2100 is 5.1°C compared to 2.4°C in the earlier study. Many changes contribute to the stronger warming; among the more important ones are taking into account the cooling in the second half of the twentieth century due to volcanic eruptions for input parameter estimation and a more sophisticated method for projecting gross domestic product (GDP) growth, which eliminated many low-emission scenarios. However, if recently published data, suggesting stronger twentieth-century ocean warming, are used to determine the input climate parameters, the median projected warming at the end of the twenty-first century is only 4.1°C. Nevertheless, all ensembles of the simulations discussed here produce a much smaller probability of warming less than 2.4°C than implied by the lower bound of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) projected likely range for the A1FI scenario, which has forcing very similar to the median projection in this study. The probability distribution for the surface warming produced by this analysis is more symmetric than the distribution assumed by the IPCC because of a different feedback between the climate and the carbon cycle, resulting from the inclusion in this model of the carbon–nitrogen interaction in the terrestrial ecosystem.
    Description: This work was supported in part by the Office of Science (BER), U.S. Department of Energy Grants DE-FG02-94ER61937 and DE-FG02-93ER61677, and by the industrial and foundations sponsors of The MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change (http://globalchange.mit.edu/sponsors/ current.html).
    Keywords: Probability forecasts/models ; Climate prediction ; Anthropogenic effects ; Numerical analysis/modeling ; Feedback
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 23 (2010): 2230–2231, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3566.1.
    Description: Corrigendum: Sokolov, A., and Coauthors, 2009: Probabilistic forecast for twenty-first-century climate based on uncertainties in emissions (without policy) and climate parameters. J. Climate, 22, 5175–5204.
    Keywords: Probability forecasts/models ; Climate prediction ; Anthropogenic effects ; Numerical analysis/modeling ; Feedback
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2022-10-27
    Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Gewirtzman, J., Tang, J., Melillo, J. M., Werner, W. J., Kurtz, A. C., Fulweiler, R. W., & Carey, J. C. Soil warming accelerates biogeochemical silica cycling in a temperate forest. Frontiers in Plant Science, 10, (2019): 1097, doi:10.3389/fpls.2019.01097.
    Description: Biological cycling of silica plays an important role in terrestrial primary production. Soil warming stemming from climate change can alter the cycling of elements, such as carbon and nitrogen, in forested ecosystems. However, the effects of soil warming on the biogeochemical cycle of silica in forested ecosystems remain unexplored. Here we examine long-term forest silica cycling under ambient and warmed conditions over a 15-year period of experimental soil warming at Harvard Forest (Petersham, MA). Specifically, we measured silica concentrations in organic and mineral soils, and in the foliage and litter of two dominant species (Acer rubrum and Quercus rubra), in a large (30 × 30 m) heated plot and an adjacent control plot (30 × 30 m). In 2016, we also examined effects of heating on dissolved silica in the soil solution, and conducted a litter decomposition experiment using four tree species (Acer rubrum, Quercus rubra, Betula lenta, Tsuga canadensis) to examine effects of warming on the release of biogenic silica (BSi) from plants to soils. We find that tree foliage maintained constant silica concentrations in the control and warmed plots, which, coupled with productivity enhancements under warming, led to an increase in total plant silica uptake. We also find that warming drove an acceleration in the release of silica from decaying litter in three of the four species we examined, and a substantial increase in the silica dissolved in soil solution. However, we observe no changes in soil BSi stocks with warming. Together, our data indicate that warming increases the magnitude of silica uptake by vegetation and accelerates the internal cycling of silica in in temperate forests, with possible, and yet unresolved, effects on the delivery of silica from terrestrial to marine systems.
    Description: This research was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF PLR-1417763 to JT), the Geological Society of America (Stephen G. Pollock Undergraduate Research Grant to JG), the Institute at Brown for Environment and Society, and the Marine Biological Laboratory. Sample analysis and Fulweiler’s involvement were supported by Boston University and a Bullard Fellowship from Harvard University. The soil warming experiment was supported by the National Science Foundation (DEB-0620443) and Department of Energy (DE-FC02-06-ER641577 and DE-SC0005421).
    Keywords: Silica ; Climate change ; Soil ; Warming ; Phytoliths ; Plants ; Biogeochemistry
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2016. This is the author's version of the work and is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Global and Planetary Change 142 (2016): 28-40, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.04.011.
    Description: In the circumpolar north (45-90°N), permafrost plays an important role in vegetation and carbon (C) dynamics. Permafrost thawing has been accelerated by the warming climate and exerts a positive feedback to climate through increasing soil C release to the atmosphere. To evaluate the influence of permafrost on C dynamics, changes in soil temperature profiles should be considered in global C models. This study incorporates a sophisticated soil thermal model (STM) into a dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ-DGVM) to improve simulations of changes in soil temperature profiles from the ground surface to 3 m depth, and its impacts on C pools and fluxes during the 20th and 21st centuries.With cooler simulated soil temperatures during the summer, LPJ-STM estimates ~0.4 Pg C yr-1 lower present-day heterotrophic respiration but ~0.5 Pg C yr-1 higher net primary production than the original LPJ model resulting in an additional 0.8 to 1.0 Pg C yr-1 being sequestered in circumpolar ecosystems. Under a suite of projected warming scenarios, we show that the increasing active layer thickness results in the mobilization of permafrost C, which contributes to a more rapid increase in heterotrophic respiration in LPJ-STM compared to the stand-alone LPJ model. Except under the extreme warming conditions, increases in plant production due to warming and rising CO2, overwhelm the enhanced ecosystem respiration so that both boreal forest and arctic tundra ecosystems remain a net C sink over the 21st century. This study highlights the importance of considering changes in the soil thermal regime when quantifying the C budget in the circumpolar north.
    Description: This research is supported by funded projects to Q. Z. National Science Foundation (NSF- 1028291 and NSF- 0919331), the NSF Carbon and Water in the Earth Program (NSF-0630319), the NASA Land Use and Land Cover Change program (NASA- NNX09AI26G), and Department of Energy (DE-FG02-08ER64599).
    Description: 2017-05-03
    Keywords: Soil thermal regime ; Permafrost degradation ; Active layer ; Climate warming ; Carbon budget
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Preprint
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Weather Climate and Society 11(3), (2019):465-487, doi: 10.1175/WCAS-D-18-0134.1.
    Description: As states, cities, tribes, and private interests cope with climate damages and seek to increase preparedness and resilience, they will need to navigate myriad choices and options available to them. Making these choices in ways that identify pathways for climate action that support their development objectives will require constructive public dialogue, community participation, and flexible and ongoing access to science- and experience-based knowledge. In 2016, a Federal Advisory Committee (FAC) was convened to recommend how to conduct a sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) to increase the relevance and usability of assessments for informing action. The FAC was disbanded in 2017, but members and additional experts reconvened to complete the report that is presented here. A key recommendation is establishing a new nonfederal “climate assessment consortium” to increase the role of state/local/tribal government and civil society in assessments. The expanded process would 1) focus on applied problems faced by practitioners, 2) organize sustained partnerships for collaborative learning across similar projects and case studies to identify effective tested practices, and 3) assess and improve knowledge-based methods for project implementation. Specific recommendations include evaluating climate models and data using user-defined metrics; improving benefit–cost assessment and supporting decision-making under uncertainty; and accelerating application of tools and methods such as citizen science, artificial intelligence, indicators, and geospatial analysis. The recommendations are the result of broad consultation and present an ambitious agenda for federal agencies, state/local/tribal jurisdictions, universities and the research sector, professional associations, nongovernmental and community-based organizations, and private-sector firms.
    Description: This report would not have been possible without the support and participation of numerous organizations and individuals. We thank New York State Governor Andrew M. Cuomo for announcing in his 2018 State of the State agenda that the IAC would be reconvened. The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (Contract ID 123416), Columbia University’s Earth Institute, and the American Meteorological Society provided essential financial support and much more, including sage advice and moral support from John O’Leary, Shara Mohtadi, Steve Cohen, Alex Halliday, Peter deMenocal, Keith Seitter, Paul Higgins, and Bill Hooke. We thank the attendees of a workshop, generously funded by the Kresge Foundation in November of 2017, that laid a foundation for the idea to establish a civil-society-based assessment consortium. During the course of preparing the report, IAC members consulted with individuals too numerous to list here—state, local, and tribal officials; researchers; experts in nongovernmental and community-based organizations; and professionals in engineering, architecture, public health, adaptation, and other areas. We are so grateful for their time and expertise. We thank the members and staff of the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine’s Committee to Advise the U.S. Global Change Research Program for providing individual comments on preliminary recommendations during several discussions in open sessions of their meetings. The following individuals provided detailed comments on an earlier version of this report, which greatly sharpened our thinking and recommendations: John Balbus, Tom Dietz, Phil Duffy, Baruch Fischhoff, Brenda Hoppe, Melissa Kenney, Linda Mearns, Claudia Nierenberg, Kathleen Segerson, Soroosh Sorooshian, Chris Weaver, and Brian Zuckerman. Mary Black provided insightful copy editing of several versions of the report. We also thank four anonymous reviewers for their effort and care in critiquing and improving the report. It is the dedication, thoughtful feedback, expertise, care, and commitment of all these people and more that not only made this report possible, but allow us all to continue to support smart and insightful actions in a changing climate. We are grateful as authors and as global citizens. Author contributions: RM, SA, KB, MB, AC, JD, PF, KJ, AJ, KK, JK, ML, JM, RP, TR, LS, JS, JW, and DZ were members of the IAC and shared in researching, discussing, drafting, and approving the report. BA, JF, AG, LJ, SJ, PK, RK, AM, RM, JN, WS, JS, PT, GY, and RZ contributed to specific sections of the report.
    Description: 2020-05-21
    Keywords: North America ; Climate prediction ; Planning ; Policy ; Risk assessment ; Societal impacts
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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