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  • Climate change  (11)
  • Biogeochemistry  (5)
  • Climate  (4)
  • Climate variability  (3)
  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 113 (2008): C03019, doi:10.1029/2007JC004153.
    Description: Estimates of temporal trends in oceanic anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) rely on the ability of empirical methods to remove the large natural variability of the ocean carbon system. A coupled carbon-climate model is used to evaluate these empirical methods. Both the ΔC* and multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques reproduce the predicted increase in dissolved inorganic carbon for the majority of the ocean and have similar average percent errors for decadal differences (24.1% and 25.5%, respectively). However, this study identifies several regions where these methods may introduce errors. Of particular note are mode and deep water formation regions, where changes in air-sea disequilibrium and structure in the MLR residuals introduce errors. These results have significant implications for decadal repeat hydrography programs, indicating the need for subannual sampling in certain regions of the oceans in order to better constrain the natural variability in the system and to robustly estimate the intrusion of anthropogenic CO2.
    Description: We would like to acknowledge funding from NSF (OCE02-23869), NCAR, the WHOI Ocean Climate Institute, a Linden Earth Systems Graduate Fellowship (MIT), and a National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate Fellowship. NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. R.W. is supported by the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research at NOAA.
    Keywords: Carbon dioxide ; Ocean carbon sink ; Climate change
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 25 (2011): GB3022, doi:10.1029/2010GB003892.
    Description: The North Atlantic Ocean accounts for about 25% of the global oceanic anthropogenic carbon sink. This basin experiences significant interannual variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A suite of biogeochemical model simulations is used to analyze the impact of interannual variability on the uptake and storage of contemporary and anthropogenic carbon (Canthro) in the North Atlantic Ocean. Greater winter mixing during positive NAO years results in increased mode water formation and subsequent increases in subtropical and subpolar Canthro inventories. Our analysis suggests that changes in mode water Canthro inventories are primarily due to changes in water mass volumes driven by variations in water mass transformation rates rather than local air-sea CO2 exchange. This suggests that a significant portion of anthropogenic carbon found in the ocean interior may be derived from surface waters advected into water formation regions rather than from local gas exchange. Therefore, changes in climate modes, such as the NAO, may alter the residence time of anthropogenic carbon in the ocean by altering the rate of water mass transformation. In addition, interannual variability in Canthro storage increases the difficulty of Canthro detection and attribution through hydrographic observations, which are limited by sparse sampling of subsurface waters in time and space.
    Description: We would like to acknowledge funding from the NOAA Climate Program under the Office of Climate Observations and Global Carbon Cycle Program (NOAA‐NA07OAR4310098), NSF (OCE‐0623034), NCAR, the WHOI Ocean Climate Institute, a National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate Fellowship and an Environmental Protection Agency STAR graduate fellowship. NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.
    Keywords: North Atlantic Oscillation ; Anthropogenic carbon ; Carbon cycle ; Climate change ; Global climate model ; Mode waters
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 123 (2018): 1796-1816, doi:10.1029/2017JG004263.
    Description: Gross photosynthetic activity by phytoplankton is directed to linear and alternative electron pathways that generate ATP, reductant, and fix carbon. Ultimately less than half is directed to net growth. Here we present a phytoplankton cell allocation model that explicitly represents a number of cell metabolic processes and functional pools with the goal of evaluating ATP and reductant demands as a function of light, nitrate, iron, oxygen, and temperature for diazotrophic versus nondiazotrophic growth. We employ model analogues of Synechoccocus and Crocosphaera watsonii, to explore the trade‐offs of diazotrophy over a range of environmental conditions. Model analogues are identical in construction, except for an iron quota associated with nitrogenase, an additional respiratory demand to remove oxygen in order to protect nitrogenase and an additional ATP demand to split dinitrogen. We find that these changes explain observed differences in growth rate and iron limitation between diazotrophs and nondiazotrophs. Oxygen removal imparted a significantly larger metabolic cost to diazotrophs than ATP demand for fixing nitrogen. Results suggest that diazotrophs devote a much smaller fraction of gross photosynthetic energy to growth than nondiazotrophs. The phytoplankton cell allocation model model provides a predictive framework for how photosynthate allocation varies with environmental conditions in order to balance cellular demands for ATP and reductant across phytoplankton functional groups.
    Description: DOC | NOAA | Climate Program Office (CPO) Grant Number: NA100AR4310093; National Science Foundation (NSF) Grant Number: EF‐0424599; Center for Microbial Oceanography Research and Education (CMORE) Grant Number: NSF EF‐0424599; NOAA Global Carbon Program Grant Number: NA100AR4310093
    Description: 2018-11-01
    Keywords: Phytoplankton ; Diazotroph ; Photosynthesis ; Resource allocation ; Biogeochemistry
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © Annual Reviews, 2003. This article is posted here by permission of Annual Reviews for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Annual Review of Environment and Resources 28 (2003): 521-558, doi:10.1146/annurev.energy.28.011503.163443.
    Description: Agriculture and industrial development have led to inadvertent changes in the natural carbon cycle. As a consequence, concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have increased in the atmosphere and may lead to changes in climate. The current challenge facing society is to develop options for future management of the carbon cycle. A variety of approaches has been suggested: direct reduction of emissions, deliberate manipulation of the natural carbon cycle to enhance sequestration, and capture and isolation of carbon from fossil fuel use. Policy development to date has laid out some of the general principles to which carbon management should adhere. These are summarized as: how much carbon is stored, by what means, and for how long. To successfully manage carbon for climate purposes requires increased understanding of carbon cycle dynamics and improvement in the scientific capabilities available for measurement as well as for policy needs. The specific needs for scientific information to underpin carbon cycle management decisions are not yet broadly known. A stronger dialogue between decision makers and scientists must be developed to foster improved application of scientific knowledge to decisions. This review focuses on the current knowledge of the carbon cycle, carbon measurement capabilities (with an emphasis on the continental scale) and the relevance of carbon cycle science to carbon sequestration goals.
    Description: The National Center for Atmospheric Research is supported by the National Science Foundation.
    Keywords: Carbon sequestration ; Measurement techniques ; Climate ; Kyoto protocol
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 27 (2013): 1274–1290, doi:10.1002/2013GB004599.
    Description: Here we analyze the impact of projected climate change on plankton ecology in all major ocean biomes over the 21st century, using a multidecade (1880–2090) experiment conducted with the Community Climate System Model (CCSM-3.1) coupled ocean-atmosphere-land-sea ice model. The climate response differs fundamentally in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres for diatom and small phytoplankton biomass and consequently for total biomass, primary, and export production. Increasing vertical stratification in the Northern Hemisphere oceans decreases the nutrient supply to the ocean surface. Resulting decreases in diatom and small phytoplankton biomass together with a relative shift from diatoms to small phytoplankton in the Northern Hemisphere result in decreases in the total primary and export production and export ratio, and a shift to a more oligotrophic, more efficiently recycled, lower biomass euphotic layer. By contrast, temperature and stratification increases are smaller in the Southern compared to the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, a southward shift and increase in strength of the Southern Ocean westerlies act against increasing temperature and freshwater fluxes to destratify the water-column. The wind-driven, poleward shift in the Southern Ocean subpolar-subtropical boundary results in a poleward shift and increase in the frontal diatom bloom. This boundary shift, localized increases in iron supply, and the direct impact of warming temperatures on phytoplankton growth result in diatom increases in the Southern Hemisphere. An increase in diatoms and decrease in small phytoplankton partly compensate such that while total production and the efficiency of organic matter export to the deep ocean increase, total Southern Hemisphere biomass does not change substantially. The impact of ecological shifts on the global carbon cycle is complex and varies across ecological biomes, with Northern and Southern Hemisphere effects on the biological production and export partially compensating. The net result of climate change is a small Northern Hemisphere-driven decrease in total primary production and efficiency of organic matter export to the deep ocean.
    Description: I. Marinov was supported by National Science Foundation (NSF) Grant ATM06-28582 while at WHOI and by NASA Grant NNX13AC92G while at Penn. I. Lima and S. Doney were supported by the Center for Microbial Oceanography, Research, and Education (CMORE), an NSF Science and Technology Center (EF-0424599).
    Description: 2014-06-20
    Keywords: Phytoplankton ; Climate change ; Ocean models
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © Elsevier B.V., 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Marine Systems 76 (2009): 95-112, doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.05.015.
    Description: We present a generalized framework for assessing the skill of global upper ocean ecosystem-biogeochemical models against in-situ field data and satellite observations. We illustrate the approach utilizing a multi-decade (1979-2004) hindcast experiment conducted with the Community Climate System Model (CCSM-3) ocean carbon model. The CCSM-3 ocean carbon model incorporates a multi-nutrient, multi-phytoplankton functional group ecosystem module coupled with a carbon, oxygen, nitrogen, phosphorus, silicon, and iron biogeochemistry module embedded in a global, threedimensional ocean general circulation model. The model is forced with physical climate forcing from atmospheric reanalysis and satellite data products and time-varying atmospheric dust deposition. Data-based skill metrics are used to evaluate the simulated time-mean spatial patterns, seasonal cycle amplitude and phase, and subannual to interannual variability. Evaluation data include: sea surface temperature and mixed layer depth; satellite derived surface ocean chlorophyll, primary productivity, phytoplankton growth rate and carbon biomass; large-scale climatologies of surface nutrients, pCO2, and air-sea CO2 and O2 flux; and time-series data from the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS). Where the data is sufficient, we construct quantitative skill metrics using: model-data residuals, time-space correlation, root mean square error, and Taylor diagrams.
    Description: This work was supported in part by grants from the NSF/ONR National Ocean Partnership Program (N000140210370), the NASA Ocean Biology and Biogeochemistry Program (NNX07AL80G), and the NSF Center for Microbial Oceanography Research and Education (C-MORE).
    Keywords: Marine ecology ; Biogeochemistry ; Modeling ; Evaluation ; Skill
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2013]. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 26 (2013): 6775–6800, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00184.1.
    Description: Ocean carbon uptake and storage simulated by the Community Earth System Model, version 1–Biogeochemistry [CESM1(BGC)], is described and compared to observations. Fully coupled and ocean-ice configurations are examined; both capture many aspects of the spatial structure and seasonality of surface carbon fields. Nearly ubiquitous negative biases in surface alkalinity result from the prescribed carbonate dissolution profile. The modeled sea–air CO2 fluxes match observationally based estimates over much of the ocean; significant deviations appear in the Southern Ocean. Surface ocean pCO2 is biased high in the subantarctic and low in the sea ice zone. Formation of the water masses dominating anthropogenic CO2 (Cant) uptake in the Southern Hemisphere is weak in the model, leading to significant negative biases in Cant and chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) storage at intermediate depths. Column inventories of Cant appear too high, by contrast, in the North Atlantic. In spite of the positive bias, this marks an improvement over prior versions of the model, which underestimated North Atlantic uptake. The change in behavior is attributable to a new parameterization of density-driven overflows. CESM1(BGC) provides a relatively robust representation of the ocean–carbon cycle response to climate variability. Statistical metrics of modeled interannual variability in sea–air CO2 fluxes compare reasonably well to observationally based estimates. The carbon cycle response to key modes of climate variability is basically similar in the coupled and forced ocean-ice models; however, the two differ in regional detail and in the strength of teleconnections.
    Description: The CESM project is supported by the National Science Foundation and the Office of Science (BER) of the U.S. Department of Energy. SCD acknowledges support of Collaborative Research: Improved Regional and Decadal Predictions of the Carbon Cycle (NSFAGS- 1048827).
    Description: 2014-03-15
    Keywords: Carbon cycle ; Carbon dioxide ; Climate change ; Climate models ; Coupled models ; Oceanic chemistry
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 31 (2017): 96–113, doi:10.1002/2016GB005374.
    Description: Using the Community Earth System Model, we explore the role of human land use and land cover change (LULCC) in modifying the terrestrial carbon budget in simulations forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, extended to year 2300. Overall, conversion of land (e.g., from forest to croplands via deforestation) results in a model-estimated, cumulative carbon loss of 490 Pg C between 1850 and 2300, larger than the 230 Pg C loss of carbon caused by climate change over this same interval. The LULCC carbon loss is a combination of a direct loss at the time of conversion and an indirect loss from the reduction of potential terrestrial carbon sinks. Approximately 40% of the carbon loss associated with LULCC in the simulations arises from direct human modification of the land surface; the remaining 60% is an indirect consequence of the loss of potential natural carbon sinks. Because of the multicentury carbon cycle legacy of current land use decisions, a globally averaged amplification factor of 2.6 must be applied to 2015 land use carbon losses to adjust for indirect effects. This estimate is 30% higher when considering the carbon cycle evolution after 2100. Most of the terrestrial uptake of anthropogenic carbon in the model occurs from the influence of rising atmospheric CO2 on photosynthesis in trees, and thus, model-projected carbon feedbacks are especially sensitive to deforestation.
    Description: National Science Foundation Grant Numbers: AGS 1049033, CCF-1522054
    Description: 2017-07-23
    Keywords: Carbon cycle ; Climate change ; Land use and land cover change ; Earth system models
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © The Authors, 2005. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of National Academy of Sciences of the USA for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of the United States of America 102 (2005): 11201-11206, doi:10.1073/pnas.0504949102.
    Description: Climate change is expected to influence the capacities of the land and oceans to act as repositories for anthropogenic CO2 and hence provide a feedback to climate change. A series of experiments with the National Center for Atmospheric Research–Climate System Model 1 coupled carbon–climate model shows that carbon sink strengths vary with the rate of fossil fuel emissions, so that carbon storage capacities of the land and oceans decrease and climate warming accelerates with faster CO2 emissions. Furthermore, there is a positive feedback between the carbon and climate systems, so that climate warming acts to increase the airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO2 and amplify the climate change itself. Globally, the amplification is small at the end of the 21st century in this model because of its low transient climate response and the near-cancellation between large regional changes in the hydrologic and ecosystem responses. Analysis of our results in the context of comparable models suggests that destabilization of the tropical land sink is qualitatively robust, although its degree is uncertain.
    Description: This work was supported by National Science Foundation (NSF) Grant NSF ATM-9987457, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) EOS-IDS Grant NAG5-9514, NASA Carbon Cycle Program Grant NAG5-11200, the Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and the Ocean and Climate Change Institute of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.
    Keywords: Carbon dioxide ; Climate change ; Land carbon sink ; Ocean carbon sink
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © The Authors, 2005. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography 53 (2006): 451-458, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2006.01.019.
    Description: A decade long Synthesis and Modeling Project (SMP) was conducted as the final element of the U.S. Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS). The SMP goal was to synthesize knowledge gained from field studies into a set of models that reflect our current understanding of the oceanic carbon cycle. Specific, innovative aspects of the project included the close partnership among scientists conducting field, laboratory, remote sensing, and numerical research and the strong emphasis on data management and web-based, public release of models and data products. Several recurrent science themes arose across the SMP effort including: the development of a new generation of ocean ecosystem and biogeochemistry models that include iron limitation, flexible elemental composition, size structure, geochemical functional groups and particle composition; the application of inverse models and data assimilation techniques to marine food-web data; the creation of whole-ocean synthesis products from the JGOFS global CO2 survey and other studies; and the analysis and modeling of ecosystem and biogeochemical responses to climate and CO2 system perturbations on time-scales ranging from seasonal and interannual variability to anthropogenic climate warming and longer.
    Description: The U.S. JGOFS SMP management effort was supported by grants from the National Science Foundation (NSF/NCAR 97-142 and NSF OCE-0335589).
    Keywords: Marine ; Biogeochemistry ; Ecology ; Modeling
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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