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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecology 98 (2017): 940-951, doi:10.1002/ecy.1749.
    Description: Evidence of climate-change-driven shifts in plant and animal phenology have raised concerns that certain trophic interactions may be increasingly mismatched in time, resulting in declines in reproductive success. Given the constraints imposed by extreme seasonality at high latitudes and the rapid shifts in phenology seen in the Arctic, we would also expect Antarctic species to be highly vulnerable to climate-change-driven phenological mismatches with their environment. However, few studies have assessed the impacts of phenological change in Antarctica. Using the largest database of phytoplankton phenology, sea-ice phenology, and Adélie Penguin breeding phenology and breeding success assembled to date, we find that, while a temporal match between Penguin breeding phenology and optimal environmental conditions sets an upper limit on breeding success, only a weak relationship to the mean exists. Despite previous work suggesting that divergent trends in Adélie Penguin breeding phenology are apparent across the Antarctic continent, we find no such trends. Furthermore, we find no trend in the magnitude of phenological mismatch, suggesting that mismatch is driven by interannual variability in environmental conditions rather than climate-change-driven trends, as observed in other systems. We propose several criteria necessary for a species to experience a strong climate-change-driven phenological mismatch, of which several may be violated by this system.
    Description: Funding to H. J. Lynch and C. Youngflesh was provided by the National Science Foundation Grant OPP/GSS 1255058, to S. Jenouvrier, H. J. Lynch, C. Youngflesh, Y. Li, and R. Ji by the National Science Foundation Grant 1341474, to S. Jenouvrier, Y. Li, and R. Ji by NASA grant NNX14AH74G, to D. G. Ainley, G. Ballard, and K. M. Dugger by the National Science Foundation Grants OPP 9526865, 9814882, 0125608, 0944411 and 0440643, to P. O’B. Lyver by New Zealand’s Ministry of Business, Innovation, and Employment Grants C09X0510 and C01X1001, and Ministry of Primary Industry grants with logistic support from Antarctica New Zealand.
    Keywords: Anna Karenina Principle ; Antarctica ; Asynchrony ; Bayesian hierarchical model ; Climate change ; Phenology ; Pygoscelis adeliae ; Quantile regression
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 124(6), (2019): 3628-3644, doi:10.1029/2018JC014805.
    Description: The Arctic Ocean is experiencing profound environmental changes as the climate warms. Understanding how these changes will affect Arctic biological productivity is key for predicting future Arctic ecosystems and the global CO2 balance. Here we use in situ gas measurements to quantify rates of gross oxygen production (GOP, total photosynthesis) and net community production (NCP, net CO2 drawdown by the biological pump) in the mixed layer in summer or fall from 2011 to 2016 in the Beaufort Gyre. NCP and GOP show spatial and temporal variations with higher values linked with lower concentrations of sea ice and increased upper ocean stratification. Mean rates of GOP range from 8 ± 1 to 54 ± 9 mmol O2·m−2·d−1 with the highest mean rates occurring in summer of 2012. Mean rates of NCP ranged from 1.3 ± 0.2 to 2.9 ± 0.5 mmol O2·m−2·d−1. The mean ratio of NCP/GOP, a measure of how efficiently the ecosystem is recycling its nutrients, ranged from 0.04 to 0.17, similar to ratios observed at lower latitudes. Additionally, a large increase in total photosynthesis that occurred in 2012, a year of historically low sea ice coverage, persisted for many years. Taken together, these data provide one of the most complete characterizations of interannual variations of biological productivity in this climatically important region, can serve as a baseline for future changes in rates of production, and give an intriguing glimpse of how this region of the Arctic may respond to future lack of sea ice.
    Description: We sincerely thank the scientific teams of Fisheries and Oceans Canada's Joint Ocean Ice Studies expedition and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution's Beaufort Gyre Observing System. The hydrographic, nutrient, and chlorophyll data were collected and made available by the Beaufort Gyre Exploration Program based at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (http://www.whoi.edu/beaufortgyre) in collaboration with researchers from Fisheries and Oceans Canada at the Institute of Ocean Sciences. We thank the captains and crews of the Canadian icebreaker CCGS Louis S. St‐Laurent and Mike Dempsey for sample collection. This paper was improved by the suggestions of Michael DeGrandpre and one anonymous reviewer. We are grateful to Qing Wang at Wellesley College for her assistance with statistics. We thank our funding sources: the National Science Foundation (NSF 1547011, NSF 1302884, NSF 1719280, NSF 1643735) and the support of Fisheries and Oceans Canada. Data presented and discussed in this paper can be found in the Arctic Data Center (http://10.18739/A2W389).
    Description: 2019-10-30
    Keywords: Oxygen ; Argon ; Gross primary production ; Net community production ; Sea ice ; Triple oxygen isotopes
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
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