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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: Present global warming is amplified in the Arctic and accompanied by unprecedented sea ice decline. Located along the main pathway of Atlantic Water entering the Arctic, the Barents Sea is the site of coupled feedback processes that are important for creating variability in the entire Arctic air-ice-ocean system. As warm Atlantic Water flows through the Barents Sea, it loses heat to the Arctic atmosphere. Warm periods, like today, are associated with high northward heat transport, reduced Arctic sea ice cover, and high surface air temperatures. The cooling of the Atlantic inflow creates dense water sinking to great depths in the Arctic Basins, and ~60% of the Arctic Ocean carbon uptake is removed from the carbon-saturated surface this way. Recently, anomalously large ocean heat transport has reduced sea ice formation in the Barents Sea during winter. The missing Barents Sea winter ice makes up a large part of observed winter Arctic sea ice loss, and in 2050, the Barents Sea is projected to be largely ice free throughout the year, with 4°C summer warming in the formerly ice-covered areas. The heating of the Barents atmosphere plays an important role both in “Arctic amplification” and the Arctic heat budget. The heating also perturbs the large-scale circulation through expansion of the Siberian High northward, with a possible link to recent continental wintertime cooling. Large air-ice-ocean variability is evident in proxy records of past climate conditions, suggesting that the Barents Sea has had an important role in Northern Hemisphere climate for, at least, the last 2500 years.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 2
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 120 (24). pp. 12500-12513.
    Publication Date: 2019-04-04
    Description: Climate model resolution can affect both the climate change signal and present-day representation of extreme precipitation. The need to parametrize convective processes raises questions about how well the response to warming of convective precipitation extremes is captured in such models. In particular, coastal precipitation extremes can be sensitive to sea surface temperature (SST) increase. Taking a recent coastal precipitation extreme as a showcase example, we explore the added value of convection-permitting models by comparing the response of the extreme precipitation to a wide range of SST forcings in an ensemble of regional climate model simulations using parametrized and explicit convection. Compared at the same spatial scale, we find that the increased local intensities of vertical motion and precipitation in the convection-permitting simulations play a crucial role in shaping a strongly nonlinear extreme precipitation response to SST increase, which is not evident when convection is parametrized. In the convection-permitting simulations, SST increase causes precipitation intensity to increase only until a threshold is reached, beyond which further SST increase does not enhance the precipitation. This flattened response results from an improved representation of convective downdrafts and near-surface cooling, which damp the further intensification of precipitation by stabilizing the lower troposphere locally and also create cold-pools that cause subsequent convection to be triggered at sea, rather than by the coastal orography. These features are not well represented in the parametrized convection simulations, resulting in precipitation intensity having a much more linear response to increasing SSTs
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2021-01-08
    Description: The ability of state‐of‐the‐art regional climate models to simulate cyclone activity in the Arctic is assessed based on an ensemble of 13 simulations from 11 models from the Arctic‐CORDEX initiative. Some models employ large‐scale spectral nudging techniques. Cyclone characteristics simulated by the ensemble are compared with the results forced by four reanalyses (ERA‐Interim, National Centers for Environmental Prediction‐Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, National Aeronautics and Space Administration‐Modern‐Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2, and Japan Meteorological Agency‐Japanese 55‐year reanalysis) in winter and summer for 1981–2010 period. In addition, we compare cyclone statistics between ERA‐Interim and the Arctic System Reanalysis reanalyses for 2000–2010. Biases in cyclone frequency, intensity, and size over the Arctic are also quantified. Variations in cyclone frequency across the models are partly attributed to the differences in cyclone frequency over land. The variations across the models are largest for small and shallow cyclones for both seasons. A connection between biases in the zonal wind at 200 hPa and cyclone characteristics is found for both seasons. Most models underestimate zonal wind speed in both seasons, which likely leads to underestimation of cyclone mean depth and deep cyclone frequency in the Arctic. In general, the regional climate models are able to represent the spatial distribution of cyclone characteristics in the Arctic but models that employ large‐scale spectral nudging show a better agreement with ERA‐Interim reanalysis than the rest of the models. Trends also exhibit the benefits of nudging. Models with spectral nudging are able to reproduce the cyclone trends, whereas most of the nonnudged models fail to do so. However, the cyclone characteristics and trends are sensitive to the choice of nudged variables.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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