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  • INGV  (2)
  • Wiley  (1)
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  • 1
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    Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards (2020)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-02-08
    Description: Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a two‐fold advantage: it would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures, and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multi‐hazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state‐of‐the‐art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact‐based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe. Plain language summary Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties and livelihood. While such systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location and timing of potentially damaging events, they rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services or financial loss. Extending hazard forecast systems to include impact estimates promises many benefits for the emergency phase, for instance, for organising evacuations. We review and compare the state‐of‐the‐art of impact forcasting across a wide range of natural hazards, and outline opportunities and key challenges for research and development of impact forecasting.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 2
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    Harmonizing and comparing single-type natural hazard risk estimations (2021)
    INGV
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-06-10
    Description: Single-type hazard and risk assessment is the usual framework followed by disaster risk reduction (DRR) practitioners. There is therefore a need to present and compare the results arising from different hazard and risk types. Here we describe a simple method for combining risk curves arising from different hazard types in order to gain a first impression of the total risk. We show how the resulting total (and individual) risk estimates can be examined and compared using so-called risk matrices, a format preferred by some DRR practitioners. We apply this approach to Cologne, Germany, which is subject to floods, windstorms and earthquakes. We then use a new series of risk calculations that consider epistemic uncertainty. The Mann-Whitney test is applied to determine if the losses arising from pairs of hazards are comparable for a given return period. This benefits decision makers as it allows a ranking of hazards with respect to expected damage. Such a comparison would assist planners in the allocation of resources towards the most efficient mitigation actions. However, the results are dependent upon the distribution of estimates (i.e., level of uncertainty), which is in turn a function of our state of knowledge.
    Description: Published
    Description: S0216
    Description: 7SR AMBIENTE – Servizi e ricerca per la società
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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    PAPER (OA)
  • 3
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    Coordinated and Interoperable Seismological Data and Product Services in Europe: the EPOS Thematic Core Service for Seismology (2023)
    INGV
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-18
    Description: In this article we describe EPOS Seismology, the Thematic Core Service consortium for the seismology domain within the European Plate Observing System infrastructure. EPOS Seismology was developed alongside the build-up of EPOS during the last decade, in close collaboration between the existing pan-European seismological initiatives ORFEUS (Observatories and Research Facilities for European Seismology), EMSC (Euro-Mediterranean Seismological Center) and EFEHR (European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk) and their respective communities. It provides on one hand a governance framework that allows a well-coordinated interaction of the seismological community services with EPOS and its bodies, and on the other hand it strengthens the coordination among the already existing seismological initiatives with regard to data, products and service provisioning and further development. Within the EPOS Delivery Framework, ORFEUS, EMSC and EFEHR provide a wide range of services that allow open access to a vast amount of seismological data and products, following and implementing the FAIR principles and supporting open science. Services include access to raw seismic waveforms of thousands of stations together with relevant station and data quality information, parametric earthquake information of recent and historical earthquakes together with advanced event-specific products like moment tensors or source models and further ancillary services, and comprehensive seismic hazard and risk information, covering latest European scale models and their underlying data. The services continue to be available on the well-established domain-specific platforms and websites, and are also consecutively integrated with the interoperable central EPOS data infrastructure. EPOS Seismology and its participating organizations provide a consistent framework for the future development of these services and their operation as EPOS services, closely coordinated also with other international seismological initiatives, and is well set to represent the European seismological research infrastructures and their stakeholders within EPOS.
    Description: Published
    Description: DM213
    Description: 3T. Fisica dei terremoti e Sorgente Sismica
    Description: 5T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: 8T. Sismologia in tempo reale e Early Warning Sismico e da Tsunami
    Description: 4IT. Banche dati
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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    PAPER (OA)
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