Description: ERA-Interim reanalysis data and data of the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2 (HadGEM2) are compared with continuous meteorological observations of near-surface wind and temperature carried out for more than 30 years at Neumayer station, situated on the Ekstro¨m Ice Shelf of Antarctica. Significant temperature correlations between Neumayer climate and the climate of both the interior of the Antarctic continent and oceanic regions north of Neumayer are investigated using observational data and model data. Mean sea level pressure fluctuations at Neumayer can be connected to changes in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Shortcomings in the ERA-Interim reanalysis data with spurious trends of up to 7 C over 31 years are identified at several places in Antarctica. Furthermore, it is shown that katabatic winds in both the ERA-Interim reanalysis data and in the HadGEM2 climate model are underrepresented in frequency and speed, presumably due to the problems in representing topography in these relatively coarse resolution models. This may be one reason for the positive 2m air temperature bias of 3 C in the models at Neumayer station. The results of this study reemphasize that climatic trends in regions with a low station density can not be assessed solely from model data. Thus, it is absolutely necessary to maintain polar observatories such as Neumayer station to quantify climate change over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica.

Description: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) data sets: HighResMIP HR simulations. These data include all datasets published for 'CMIP6.HighResMIP.AWI.AWI-CM-1-1-HR' according to the Data Reference Syntax defined as 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The model used in climate research named AWI-CM 1.1 HR, released in 2018, includes the components: atmos: ECHAM6.3.04p1 (T127L95 native atmosphere T127 gaussian grid; 384 x 192 longitude/latitude; 95 levels; top level 80 km), land: JSBACH 3.20, ocean: FESOM 1.4 (unstructured grid in the horizontal with 1306775 wet nodes; 46 levels; top grid cell 0-5 m), seaIce: FESOM 1.4. The model was run by the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Am Handelshafen 12, 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany (AWI) in native nominal resolutions: atmos: 100 km, land: 100 km, ocean: 25 km, seaIce: 25 km. Project: These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions, and the results will undoubtedly be relied on by authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated at a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. - Project website: https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/CMIP6.

Description: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) data sets: DECK (1pctCO2, abrupt-4xCO2, piControl simulations) and CMIP historical simulations. These data include all datasets published for 'CMIP6.CMIP.AWI.AWI-CM-1-1-MR' according to the Data Reference Syntax defined as 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The model used in climate research named AWI-CM 1.1 MR, released in 2018, includes the components: atmos: ECHAM6.3.04p1 (T127L95 native atmosphere T127 gaussian grid; 384 x 192 longitude/latitude; 95 levels; top level 80 km), land: JSBACH 3.20, ocean: FESOM 1.4 (unstructured grid in the horizontal with 830305 wet nodes; 46 levels; top grid cell 0-5 m), seaIce: FESOM 1.4. The model was run by the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Am Handelshafen 12, 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany (AWI) in native nominal resolutions: atmos: 100 km, land: 100 km, ocean: 25 km, seaIce: 25 km. Project: These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions, and the results will undoubtedly be relied on by authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated at a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. - Project website: https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/CMIP6.

Description: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) data sets: HighResMIP LR simulations. These data includes all datasets published for 'CMIP6.HighResMIP.AWI.AWI-CM-1-1-LR' according to the Data Reference Syntax defined as 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The model used in climate research named AWI-CM 1.1 LR, released in 2018, includes the components: atmos: ECHAM6.3.04p1 (T63L47 native atmosphere T63 gaussian grid; 192 x 96 longitude/latitude; 47 levels; top level 80 km), land: JSBACH 3.20, ocean: FESOM 1.4 (unstructured grid in the horizontal with 126859 wet nodes; 46 levels; top grid cell 0-5 m), seaIce: FESOM 1.4. The model was run by the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Am Handelshafen 12, 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany (AWI) in native nominal resolutions: atmos: 250 km, land: 250 km, ocean: 50 km, seaIce: 50 km. Project: These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions, and the results will undoubtedly be relied on by authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated at a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. - Project website: https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/CMIP6.

Description: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) data sets: ScenarioMIP. These data include all datasets published for 'CMIP6.ScenarioMIP.AWI.AWI-CM-1-1-MR' according to the Data Reference Syntax defined as 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The model used in climate research named AWI-CM 1.1 MR, released in 2018, includes the components: atmos: ECHAM6.3.04p1 (T127L95 native atmosphere T127 gaussian grid; 384 x 192 longitude/latitude; 95 levels; top level 80 km), land: JSBACH 3.20, ocean: FESOM 1.4 (unstructured grid in the horizontal with 830305 wet nodes; 46 levels; top grid cell 0-5 m), seaIce: FESOM 1.4. The model was run by the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Am Handelshafen 12, 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany (AWI) in native nominal resolutions: atmos: 100 km, land: 100 km, ocean: 25 km, seaIce: 25 km. Project: These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions, and the results will undoubtedly be relied on by authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated at a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. - Project website: https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/CMIP6.

Description: Local climate is dependent on the global climate. Here, a global picture on climate change is presented using predictions from the EC-Earth simulations for the end of the century. The results indicate a general rise in annual mean temperature everywhere: 2-4 degrees (global average), 1-6 degrees (over Europe) and 1-4 degrees (Ireland). Changes in precipitation are more varied: large increases (〉100%) at high northern latitudes and in the equatorial Pacific but decreases of more than 50% over the subtropics; winters in Europe are predicted to be up to 20% wetter and summers up to 20% drier. Changes in extremes are also presented in this chapter.

Description: Coupled climate models with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and changing aerosol concentrations indicate an increase in the westerly airflow in mid-latitudes in winter as well as more extreme storms and precipitation events. However, declining Arctic sea ice may alter this projection. A sensitivity experiment run with the EC-Earth global model with Arctic sea ice removed shows a weakening of the westerly flow over Ireland. Such a change would increase the likelihood of cold continental air outbreaks over Ireland during winter.