Description: The subpolar North Atlantic (NA) plays a key role in the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2. The availability of a historical high quality data set from the Transient Tracers in the Ocean North Atlantic Study (TTO-NAS) in 1981, together with data from recent studies in 1997 and 1999, makes it possible to assess the temporal increase of anthropogenic CO2 (View the MathML sourceCTant) in the region. We introduce an extension of a previous published empirical approach for estimating temporal increases of View the MathML sourceCTant, which is known as multiple linear regression approach (MLR). The method is based on a multiple linear-regression model employing hydrographic and chemical parameters. The accuracy of the extended MLR calculation (eMLR) proposed here is estimated to be ±3 μmol/kg for a parameterization based on potential temperature, total alkalinity, silicate, and phosphate. Calculated increases of View the MathML sourceCTant (View the MathML sourceΔCTant(PO4)) for the time period 1981–1997 are 1–20 μmol/kg at depths greater than 100 m. The distribution corresponds well to silicate and CFC-12 distributions. Open ocean profiles show a relative minimum between 300 and 1000 m, which is not apparent in profiles of the total View the MathML sourceCTant concentration. The View the MathML sourceΔCTant(PO4) inventory calculation for the northern NA region (40–65°N) yields a change in anthropogenic CO2 storage of 4.2 (±1) pg C over the 16-yr time period 1981–1997. This is equivalent to a mean annual View the MathML sourceCTant increase of 0.27 (±0.06) pg C/yr or more than 10% of the global ocean uptake for this period.

Description: The mechanisms driving the air–sea exchange of carbon dioxide (CO2CO2) in the North Sea are investigated using the three-dimensional coupled physical–biogeochemical model ECOHAM (ECOlogical-model, HAMburg). We validate our simulations using field data for the years 2001–2002 and identify the controls of the air–sea CO2CO2 flux for two locations representative for the North Sea's biogeochemical provinces. In the seasonally stratified northern region, net CO2CO2 uptake is high (View the MathML source2.06molm-2a-1) due to high net community production (NCP) in the surface water. Overflow production releasing semi-labile dissolved organic carbon needs to be considered for a realistic simulation of the low dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations observed during summer. This biologically driven carbon drawdown outcompetes the temperature-driven rise in CO2CO2 partial pressure (pCO2pCO2) during the productive season. In contrast, the permanently mixed southern region is a weak net CO2CO2 source (View the MathML source0.78molm-2a-1). NCP is generally low except for the spring bloom because remineralization parallels primary production. Here, the pCO2pCO2 appears to be controlled by temperature.

Description: Global and regional change clearly affects the structure and functioning of ecosystems in shelf seas. However, complex interactions within the shelf seas hinder the identification and unambiguous attribution of observed changes to drivers. These include variability in the climate system, in ocean dynamics, in biogeochemistry, and in shelf sea resource exploitation in the widest sense by societies. Observational time series are commonly too short, and resolution, integration time, and complexity of models are often insufficient to unravel natural variability from anthropogenic perturbation. The North Sea is a shelf sea of the North Atlantic and is impacted by virtually all global and regional developments. Natural variability (from interannual to multidecadal time scales) as response to forcing in the North Atlantic is overlain by global trends (sea level, temperature, acidification) and alternating phases of direct human impacts and attempts to remedy those. Human intervention started some 1000 years ago (diking and associated loss of wetlands), expanded to near-coastal parts in the industrial revolution of the mid-19th century (river management, waste disposal in rivers), and greatly accelerated in the mid-1950s (eutrophication, pollution, fisheries). The North Sea is now a heavily regulated shelf sea, yet societal goals (good environmental status versus increased uses), demands for benefits and policies diverge increasingly. Likely, the southern North Sea will be re-zoned as riparian countries dedicate increasing sea space for offshore wind energy generation with uncertain consequences for the system's environmental status. We review available observational and model data (predominantly from the southeastern North Sea region) to identify and describe effects of natural variability, of secular changes, and of human impacts on the North Sea ecosystem, and outline developments in the next decades in response to environmental legislation, and in response to increased use of shelf sea space.