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  • 1
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 18, No. 15 ( 2018-08-13), p. 11277-11287
    Abstract: Abstract. Major mid-winter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are the largest instance of wintertime variability in the Arctic stratosphere. Because SSWs are able to cause significant surface weather anomalies on intra-seasonal timescales, several previous studies have focused on their potential future change, as might be induced by anthropogenic forcings. However, a wide range of results have been reported, from a future increase in the frequency of SSWs to an actual decrease. Several factors might explain these contradictory results, notably the use of different metrics for the identification of SSWs and the impact of large climatological biases in single-model studies. To bring some clarity, we here revisit the question of future SSW changes, using an identical set of metrics applied consistently across 12 different models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative. Our analysis reveals that no statistically significant change in the frequency of SSWs will occur over the 21st century, irrespective of the metric used for the identification of the event. Changes in other SSW characteristics – such as their duration, deceleration of the polar night jet, and the tropospheric forcing – are also assessed: again, we find no evidence of future changes over the 21st century.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
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  • 2
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 17, No. 13 ( 2017-07-04), p. 8031-8044
    Abstract: Abstract. Variations in tropical lower-stratospheric humidity influence both the chemistry and climate of the atmosphere. We analyze tropical lower-stratospheric water vapor in 21st century simulations from 12 state-of-the-art chemistry–climate models (CCMs), using a linear regression model to determine the factors driving the trends and variability. Within CCMs, warming of the troposphere primarily drives the long-term trend in stratospheric humidity. This is partially offset in most CCMs by an increase in the strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation, which tends to cool the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). We also apply the regression model to individual decades from the 21st century CCM runs and compare them to a regression of a decade of observations. Many of the CCMs, but not all, compare well with these observations, lending credibility to their predictions. One notable deficiency is that most CCMs underestimate the impact of the quasi-biennial oscillation on lower-stratospheric water vapor. Our analysis provides a new and potentially superior way to evaluate model trends in lower-stratospheric humidity.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
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  • 3
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 19, No. 14 ( 2019-07-19), p. 9253-9268
    Abstract: Abstract. The Northern Hemisphere and tropical circulation response to interannual variability in Arctic stratospheric ozone is analyzed in a set of the latest model simulations archived for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) project. All models simulate a connection between ozone variability and temperature/geopotential height in the lower stratosphere similar to that observed. A connection between Arctic ozone variability and polar cap surface air pressure is also found, but additional statistical analysis suggests that it is mediated by the dynamical variability that typically drives the anomalous ozone concentrations. While the CCMI models also show a connection between Arctic stratospheric ozone and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with Arctic stratospheric ozone variability leading to ENSO variability 1 to 2 years later, this relationship in the models is much weaker than observed and is likely related to ENSO autocorrelation rather than any forced response to ozone. Overall, Arctic stratospheric ozone is related to lower stratospheric variability. Arctic stratospheric ozone may also influence the surface in both polar and tropical latitudes, though ozone is likely not the proximate cause of these impacts and these impacts can be masked by internal variability if data are only available for ∼40 years.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2019
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  • 4
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 21, No. 5 ( 2021-03-11), p. 3725-3740
    Abstract: Abstract. The connection between the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical troposphere, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the entry of stratospheric water vapor is analyzed in a set of model simulations archived for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) project and for Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. While the models agree on the temperature response to ENSO in the tropical troposphere and lower stratosphere, and all models and observations also agree on the zonal structure of the temperature response in the tropical tropopause layer, the only aspect of the entry water vapor response with consensus in both models and observations is that La Niña leads to moistening in winter relative to neutral ENSO. For El Niño and for other seasons, there are significant differences among the models. For example, some models find that the enhanced water vapor for La Niña in the winter of the event reverses in spring and summer, some models find that this moistening persists, and some show a nonlinear response, with both El Niño and La Niña leading to enhanced water vapor in both winter, spring, and summer. A moistening in the spring following El Niño events, the signal focused on in much previous work, is simulated by only half of the models. Focusing on Central Pacific ENSO vs. East Pacific ENSO, or temperatures in the mid-troposphere compared with temperatures near the surface, does not narrow the inter-model discrepancies. Despite this diversity in response, the temperature response near the cold point can explain the response of water vapor when each model is considered separately. While the observational record is too short to fully constrain the response to ENSO, it is clear that most models suffer from biases in the magnitude of the interannual variability of entry water vapor. This bias could be due to biased cold-point temperatures in some models, but others appear to be missing forcing processes that contribute to observed variability near the cold point.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2021
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  • 5
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 19, No. 2 ( 2019-01-24), p. 921-940
    Abstract: Abstract. Climate models consistently predict an acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) due to climate change in the 21st century. However, the strength of this acceleration varies considerably among individual models, which constitutes a notable source of uncertainty for future climate projections. To shed more light upon the magnitude of this uncertainty and on its causes, we analyse the stratospheric mean age of air (AoA) of 10 climate projection simulations from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative phase 1 (CCMI-I), covering the period between 1960 and 2100. In agreement with previous multi-model studies, we find a large model spread in the magnitude of the AoA trend over the simulation period. Differences between future and past AoA are found to be predominantly due to differences in mixing (reduced aging by mixing and recirculation) rather than differences in residual mean transport. We furthermore analyse the mixing efficiency, a measure of the relative strength of mixing for given residual mean transport, which was previously hypothesised to be a model constant. Here, the mixing efficiency is found to vary not only across models, but also over time in all models. Changes in mixing efficiency are shown to be closely related to changes in AoA and quantified to roughly contribute 10 % to the long-term AoA decrease over the 21st century. Additionally, mixing efficiency variations are shown to considerably enhance model spread in AoA changes. To understand these mixing efficiency variations, we also present a consistent dynamical framework based on diffusive closure, which highlights the role of basic state potential vorticity gradients in controlling mixing efficiency and therefore aging by mixing.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2019
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  • 6
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 16, No. 22 ( 2016-11-23), p. 14599-14619
    Abstract: Abstract. We assess the major factors contributing to local biases in the hydroxyl radical (OH) as simulated by a global chemistry–climate model, using a single-column photochemical model (SCM) analysis. The SCM has been constructed to represent atmospheric chemistry at Lauder, New Zealand, which is representative of the background atmosphere of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) mid-latitudes. We use long-term observations of variables essential to tropospheric OH chemistry, i.e. ozone (O3), water vapour (H2O), methane (CH4), carbon monoxide (CO), and temperature, and assess how using these measurements affect OH calculated in the SCM, relative to a reference simulation only using modelled fields. The analysis spans 1994 to 2010. Results show that OH responds approximately linearly to correcting biases in O3, H2O, CO, CH4, and temperature. The biggest impact on OH is due to correcting an overestimation by approximately 20 to 60 % of H2O, using radiosonde observations. Correcting this moist bias leads to a reduction of OH by around 5 to 35 %. This is followed by correcting predominantly overestimated O3. In the troposphere, the model biases are mostly in the range of −10 to 30 %. The impact of changing O3 on OH is due to two pathways; the OH responses to both are of similar magnitude but different seasonality: correcting in situ tropospheric ozone leads to changes in OH in the range −14 to 4 %, whereas correcting the photolysis rate of O3 in accordance with overhead column ozone changes leads to increases of OH of 8 to 16 %. The OH sensitivities to correcting CH4, CO, and temperature biases are all minor effects. The work demonstrates the feasibility of quantitatively assessing OH sensitivity to biases in longer-lived species, which can help explain differences in simulated OH between global chemistry models and relative to observations. In addition to clear-sky simulations, we have performed idealized sensitivity simulations to assess the impact of clouds (ice and liquid) on OH. The results indicate that the impacts on the ozone photolysis rate and OH are substantial, with a general decrease of OH below the clouds of up to 30 % relative to the clear-skies situation, and an increase of up to 15 % above. Using the SCM simulation we calculate recent OH trends at Lauder. For the period of 1994 to 2010, all trends are insignificant, in agreement with previous studies. For example, the trend in total-column OH is 0.5 ± 1.3 % over this period.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2016
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  • 7
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 18, No. 10 ( 2018-05-25), p. 7217-7235
    Abstract: Abstract. Understanding and modeling the large-scale transport of trace gases and aerosols is important for interpreting past (and projecting future) changes in atmospheric composition. Here we show that there are large differences in the global-scale atmospheric transport properties among the models participating in the IGAC SPARC Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). Specifically, we find up to 40 % differences in the transport timescales connecting the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitude surface to the Arctic and to Southern Hemisphere high latitudes, where the mean age ranges between 1.7 and 2.6 years. We show that these differences are related to large differences in vertical transport among the simulations, in particular to differences in parameterized convection over the oceans. While stronger convection over NH midlatitudes is associated with slower transport to the Arctic, stronger convection in the tropics and subtropics is associated with faster interhemispheric transport. We also show that the differences among simulations constrained with fields derived from the same reanalysis products are as large as (and in some cases larger than) the differences among free-running simulations, most likely due to larger differences in parameterized convection. Our results indicate that care must be taken when using simulations constrained with analyzed winds to interpret the influence of meteorology on tropospheric composition.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2018
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2016
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 16, No. 4 ( 2016-02-29), p. 2401-2415
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 16, No. 4 ( 2016-02-29), p. 2401-2415
    Abstract: Abstract. Chemistry–climate models are important tools for addressing interactions of composition and climate in the Earth system. In particular, they are used to assess the combined roles of greenhouse gases and ozone in Southern Hemisphere climate and weather. Here we present an evaluation of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator – chemistry–climate model (ACCESS-CCM), focusing on the Southern Hemisphere and the Australian region. This model is used for the Australian contribution to the international Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative, which is soliciting hindcast, future projection and sensitivity simulations. The model simulates global total column ozone (TCO) distributions accurately, with a slight delay in the onset and recovery of springtime Antarctic ozone depletion, and consistently higher ozone values. However, October-averaged Antarctic TCO from 1960 to 2010 shows a similar amount of depletion compared to observations. Comparison with model precursors shows large improvements in the representation of the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere, especially in TCO concentrations. A significant innovation is seen in the evaluation of simulated vertical profiles of ozone and temperature with ozonesonde data from Australia, New Zealand and Antarctica from 38 to 90° S. Excess ozone concentrations (greater than 26 % at Davis and the South Pole during winter) and stratospheric cold biases (up to 10 K at the South Pole during summer and autumn) outside the period of perturbed springtime ozone depletion are seen during all seasons compared to ozonesondes. A disparity in the vertical location of ozone depletion is seen: centred around 100 hPa in ozonesonde data compared to above 50 hPa in the model. Analysis of vertical chlorine monoxide profiles indicates that colder Antarctic stratospheric temperatures (possibly due to reduced mid-latitude heat flux) are artificially enhancing polar stratospheric cloud formation at high altitudes. The model's inability to explicitly simulate a supercooled ternary solution may also explain the lack of depletion at lower altitudes. Analysis of the simulated Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index compares well with ERA-Interim data, an important metric for correct representation of Australian climate. Accompanying these modulations of the SAM, 50 hPa zonal wind differences between 2001–2010 and 1979–1998 show increasing zonal wind strength southward of 60° S during December for both the model simulations and ERA-Interim data. These model diagnostics show that the model reasonably captures the stratospheric ozone-driven chemistry–climate interactions important for Australian climate and weather while highlighting areas for future model development.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2016
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2017
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 17, No. 22 ( 2017-11-27), p. 14075-14084
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 17, No. 22 ( 2017-11-27), p. 14075-14084
    Abstract: Abstract. Asymmetry in the Southern Hemisphere stratospheric ozone hole is important due to both direct radiative heating and its effect on dynamics. It is also a strong indicator of the underlying quality of the stratospheric dynamics of a climate model. We investigate the simulation of the zonal asymmetry in ozone in the NIWA-UKCA atmosphere–ocean chemistry–climate model using elliptical diagnostics, a methodology used for the first time in this subject area. During spring, the region most depleted in ozone is displaced from the pole toward South America based on ERA-Interim and the model output. The model correctly simulates the direction of this displacement but significantly underestimates its magnitude. The model shows that as ozone becomes increasingly depleted over the late 20th century this asymmetry in the ozone distribution moves west, before moving east as polar ozone recovers over the course of the 21st century. Comparison with model runs in which ozone-depleting substances are held fixed at pre-ozone-hole levels shows that this shift is primarily a function of the magnitude of ozone depletion, although increases in greenhouse gases also have some effect.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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  • 10
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 21, No. 6 ( 2021-03-31), p. 5015-5061
    Abstract: Abstract. Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system, and past and future changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. Here, we evaluate long-term changes in these species from the pre-industrial period (1850) to the end of the 21st century in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models under a range of future emissions scenarios. There is good agreement between the CMIP multi-model mean and observations for total column ozone (TCO), although there is substantial variation between the individual CMIP6 models. For the CMIP6 multi-model mean, global mean TCO has increased from ∼ 300 DU in 1850 to ∼ 305 DU in 1960, before rapidly declining in the 1970s and 1980s following the use and emission of halogenated ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). TCO is projected to return to 1960s values by the middle of the 21st century under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, and under the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios TCO values are projected to be ∼ 10 DU higher than the 1960s values by 2100. However, under the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-1.6 scenarios, TCO is not projected to return to the 1960s values despite reductions in halogenated ODSs due to decreases in tropospheric ozone mixing ratios. This global pattern is similar to regional patterns, except in the tropics where TCO under most scenarios is not projected to return to 1960s values, either through reductions in tropospheric ozone under SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6, or through reductions in lower stratospheric ozone resulting from an acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation under other Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). In contrast to TCO, there is poorer agreement between the CMIP6 multi-model mean and observed lower stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios, with the CMIP6 multi-model mean underestimating observed water vapour mixing ratios by ∼ 0.5 ppmv at 70 hPa. CMIP6 multi-model mean stratospheric water vapour mixing ratios in the tropical lower stratosphere have increased by ∼ 0.5 ppmv from the pre-industrial to the present-day period and are projected to increase further by the end of the 21st century. The largest increases (∼ 2 ppmv) are simulated under the future scenarios with the highest assumed forcing pathway (e.g. SSP5-8.5). Tropical lower stratospheric water vapour, and to a lesser extent TCO, shows large variations following explosive volcanic eruptions.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2021
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