Description: The effects of climate change (CC) on contaminants and their potential consequences to marine ecosystem services and human wellbeing are of paramount importance, as they pose overlapping risks. Here, we discuss how the interaction between CC and contaminants leads to poorly constrained impacts that affects the sensitivity of organisms to contamination leading to impaired ecosystem function, services and risk assessment evaluations. Climate drivers, such as ocean warming, ocean deoxygenation, changes in circulation, ocean acidification, and extreme events interact with trace metals, organic pollutants, excess nutrients, and radionuclides in a complex manner. Overall, the holistic consideration of the pollutants-climate change nexus has significant knowledge gaps, but will be important in understanding the fate, transport, speciation, bioavailability, toxicity, and inventories of contaminants. Greater focus on these uncertainties would facilitate improved predictions of future changes in the global biogeochemical cycling of contaminants and both human health and marine ecosystems.

Description: Diatoms play an essential role in marine biogeochemical cycles by their large contribution to primary production and particle export. Under nutrient limitation, diatom biomass often exhibits large deviations from the Redfield ratio. Here a biogeochemical ocean general circulation model is applied to investigate the influence of variations in diatom stoichiometry. The ecosystem model allows for variable Chl:C:N:Si stoichiometry in phytoplankton biomass regulated by light and availability of macronutrients (nitrate, silicic acid) and iron. Two size classes of phytoplankton are considered with the larger representing diatoms. After 5 years of simulation, the surface distributions of both phytoplankton groups are in a reasonable cyclostationary state. Compared to the ‘steady’ state, a sensitivity simulation with fixed diatom stoichiometry for Si:N of 1.2:1 showed a slight shift from small phytoplankton to diatoms leading to a shift in primary production between two groups. Total primary and export production were conservative, indicating a tendency for compensation. In the Southern Ocean, less opal production and decreased particle export ratio of Si:N resulted in raising silicic acid to the south of Subantarctic Front elucidating the importance of decoupling of different elemental cycles.

Description: © The Author(s), 2016. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Biogeosciences 13 (2016): 4023-4047, doi:10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016.

Description: Accurate projections of marine particle export production (EP) are crucial for predicting the response of the marine carbon cycle to climate change, yet models show a wide range in both global EP and their responses to climate change. This is, in part, due to EP being the net result of a series of processes, starting with net primary production (NPP) in the sunlit upper ocean, followed by the formation of particulate organic matter and the subsequent sinking and remineralisation of these particles, with each of these processes responding differently to changes in environmental conditions. Here, we compare future projections in EP over the 21st century, generated by four marine ecosystem models under the high emission scenario Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and determine the processes driving these changes. The models simulate small to modest decreases in global EP between −1 and −12 %. Models differ greatly with regard to the drivers causing these changes. Among them, the formation of particles is the most uncertain process with models not agreeing on either magnitude or the direction of change. The removal of the sinking particles by remineralisation is simulated to increase in the low and intermediate latitudes in three models, driven by either warming-induced increases in remineralisation or slower particle sinking, and show insignificant changes in the remaining model. Changes in ecosystem structure, particularly the relative role of diatoms matters as well, as diatoms produce larger and denser particles that sink faster and are partly protected from remineralisation. Also this controlling factor is afflicted with high uncertainties, particularly since the models differ already substantially with regard to both the initial (present-day) distribution of diatoms (between 11–94 % in the Southern Ocean) and the diatom contribution to particle formation (0.6–3.8 times higher than their contribution to biomass). As a consequence, changes in diatom concentration are a strong driver for EP changes in some models but of low significance in others. Observational and experimental constraints on ecosystem structure and how the fixed carbon is routed through the ecosystem to produce export production are urgently needed in order to improve current generation ecosystem models and their ability to project future changes.

Description: The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7 2007-2013) under grant agreement no. 238366. Meike Vogt and Nicolas Gruber acknowledge funding by ETH Zürich. Judith Hauck was funded by the Helmholtz Post- Doc Programme (Initiative and Networking Fund of the Helmholtz Association). Scott C. Doney and Ivan D. Lima acknowledge the support of the National Science Foundation through the Center for Microbial Oceanography Research and Education (C-MORE), an NSF Science and Technology Center (EF-0424599).

Description: In coupled biogeochmical–ocean models, the choice of numerical schemes in the ocean circulation component can have a large influence on the distribution of the biological tracers. Biogeochemical models are traditionally coupled to ocean general circulation models (OGCMs), which are based on dynamical cores employing quasi-regular meshes, and therefore utilize limited spatial resolution in a global setting. An alternative approach is to use an unstructured-mesh ocean model, which allows variable mesh resolution. Here, we present initial results of a coupling between the Finite Element Sea Ice–Ocean Model (FESOM) and the biogeochemical model REcoM2 (Regulated Ecosystem Model 2), with special focus on the Southern Ocean. Surface fields of nutrients, chlorophyll a and net primary production (NPP) were compared to available data sets with a focus on spatial distribution and seasonal cycle. The model produces realistic spatial distributions, especially regarding NPP and chlorophyll a, whereas the iron concentration becomes too low in the Pacific Ocean. The modelled NPP is 32.5 Pg C yr−1 and the export production 6.1 Pg C yr−1, which is lower than satellite-based estimates, mainly due to excessive iron limitation in the Pacific along with too little coastal production. The model performs well in the Southern Ocean, though the assessment here is hindered by the lower availability of observations. The modelled NPP is 3.1 Pg C yr−1 in the Southern Ocean and the export production 1.1 Pg C yr−1. All in all, the combination of a circulation model on an unstructured grid with a biogeochemical–ocean model shows similar performance to other models at non-eddy-permitting resolution. It is well suited for studies of the Southern Ocean, but on the global scale deficiencies in the Pacific Ocean would have to be taken into account.

Description: The effects of climate change (CC) on contaminants and their potential consequences to marine ecosystem services and human wellbeing are of paramount importance, as they pose overlapping risks. Here, we discuss how the interaction between CC and contaminants leads to poorly constrained impacts that affects the sensitivity of organisms to contamination leading to impaired ecosystem function, services and risk assessment evaluations. Climate drivers, such as ocean warming, ocean deoxygenation, changes in circulation, ocean acidification, and extreme events interact with trace metals, organic pollutants, excess nutrients, and radionuclides in a complex manner. Overall, the holistic consideration of the pollutants-climate change nexus has significant knowledge gaps, but will be important in understanding the fate, transport, speciation, bioavailability, toxicity, and inventories of contaminants. Greater focus on these uncertainties would facilitate improved predictions of future changes in the global biogeochemical cycling of contaminants and both human health and marine ecosystems.