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  • American Meteorological Society  (13)
  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Investigating the Causes of the Response of the Thermohaline Circulation to Past and Future Climate Changes
    American Meteorological Society ; 2006
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 19, No. 8 ( 2006-04-15), p. 1365-1387
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 19, No. 8 ( 2006-04-15), p. 1365-1387
    Abstract: The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is an important part of the earth's climate system. Previous research has shown large uncertainties in simulating future changes in this critical system. The simulated THC response to idealized freshwater perturbations and the associated climate changes have been intercompared as an activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/Paleo-Modeling Intercomparison Project (CMIP/PMIP) committees. This intercomparison among models ranging from the earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) to the fully coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) seeks to document and improve understanding of the causes of the wide variations in the modeled THC response. The robustness of particular simulation features has been evaluated across the model results. In response to 0.1-Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) freshwater input in the northern North Atlantic, the multimodel ensemble mean THC weakens by 30% after 100 yr. All models simulate some weakening of the THC, but no model simulates a complete shutdown of the THC. The multimodel ensemble indicates that the surface air temperature could present a complex anomaly pattern with cooling south of Greenland and warming over the Barents and Nordic Seas. The Atlantic ITCZ tends to shift southward. In response to 1.0-Sv freshwater input, the THC switches off rapidly in all model simulations. A large cooling occurs over the North Atlantic. The annual mean Atlantic ITCZ moves into the Southern Hemisphere. Models disagree in terms of the reversibility of the THC after its shutdown. In general, the EMICs and AOGCMs obtain similar THC responses and climate changes with more pronounced and sharper patterns in the AOGCMs.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0442 , 0894-8755
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3689.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2006
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    GFDL's CM2 Global Coupled Climate Models. Part IV: Idealized Climate Response
    American Meteorological Society ; 2006
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 19, No. 5 ( 2006-03-01), p. 723-740
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 19, No. 5 ( 2006-03-01), p. 723-740
    Abstract: The climate response to idealized changes in the atmospheric CO2 concentration by the new GFDL climate model (CM2) is documented. This new model is very different from earlier GFDL models in its parameterizations of subgrid-scale physical processes, numerical algorithms, and resolution. The model was constructed to be useful for both seasonal-to-interannual predictions and climate change research. Unlike previous versions of the global coupled GFDL climate models, CM2 does not use flux adjustments to maintain a stable control climate. Results from two model versions, Climate Model versions 2.0 (CM2.0) and 2.1 (CM2.1), are presented. Two atmosphere–mixed layer ocean or slab models, Slab Model versions 2.0 (SM2.0) and 2.1 (SM2.1), are constructed corresponding to CM2.0 and CM2.1. Using the SM2 models to estimate the climate sensitivity, it is found that the equilibrium globally averaged surface air temperature increases 2.9 (SM2.0) and 3.4 K (SM2.1) for a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. When forced by a 1% per year CO2 increase, the surface air temperature difference around the time of CO2 doubling [transient climate response (TCR)] is about 1.6 K for both coupled model versions (CM2.0 and CM2.1). The simulated warming is near the median of the responses documented for the climate models used in the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group I Third Assessment Report (TAR). The thermohaline circulation (THC) weakened in response to increasing atmospheric CO2. By the time of CO2 doubling, the weakening in CM2.1 is larger than that found in CM2.0: 7 and 4 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1), respectively. However, the THC in the control integration of CM2.1 is stronger than in CM2.0, so that the percentage change in the THC between the two versions is more similar. The average THC change for the models presented in the TAR is about 3 or 4 Sv; however, the range across the model results is very large, varying from a slight increase (+2 Sv) to a large decrease (−10 Sv).
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0442 , 0894-8755
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3632.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2006
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Assessment of Twentieth-Century Regional Surface Temperature Trends Using the GFDL CM2 Coupled Models
    American Meteorological Society ; 2006
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 19, No. 9 ( 2006-05-01), p. 1624-1651
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 19, No. 9 ( 2006-05-01), p. 1624-1651
    Abstract: Historical climate simulations of the period 1861–2000 using two new Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) global climate models (CM2.0 and CM2.1) are compared with observed surface temperatures. All-forcing runs include the effects of changes in well-mixed greenhouse gases, ozone, sulfates, black and organic carbon, volcanic aerosols, solar flux, and land cover. Indirect effects of tropospheric aerosols on clouds and precipitation processes are not included. Ensembles of size 3 (CM2.0) and 5 (CM2.1) with all forcings are analyzed, along with smaller ensembles of natural-only and anthropogenic-only forcing, and multicentury control runs with no external forcing. Observed warming trends on the global scale and in many regions are simulated more realistically in the all-forcing and anthropogenic-only forcing runs than in experiments using natural-only forcing or no external forcing. In the all-forcing and anthropogenic-only forcing runs, the model shows some tendency for too much twentieth-century warming in lower latitudes and too little warming in higher latitudes. Differences in Arctic Oscillation behavior between models and observations contribute substantially to an underprediction of the observed warming over northern Asia. In the all-forcing and natural-only forcing runs, a temporary global cooling in the models during the 1880s not evident in the observed temperature records is volcanically forced. El Niño interactions complicate comparisons of observed and simulated temperature records for the El Chichón and Mt. Pinatubo eruptions during the early 1980s and early 1990s. The simulations support previous findings that twentieth-century global warming has resulted from a combination of natural and anthropogenic forcing, with anthropogenic forcing being the dominant cause of the pronounced late-twentieth-century warming. The regional results provide evidence for an emergent anthropogenic warming signal over many, if not most, regions of the globe. The warming signal has emerged rather monotonically in the Indian Ocean/western Pacific warm pool during the past half-century. The tropical and subtropical North Atlantic and the tropical eastern Pacific are examples of regions where the anthropogenic warming signal now appears to be emerging from a background of more substantial multidecadal variability.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0442 , 0894-8755
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3709.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2006
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 4
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    Online Resource
    Physical Exchanges at the Air–Sea Interface: UK–SOLAS Field Measurements
    American Meteorological Society ; 2009
    In:  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 90, No. 5 ( 2009-05), p. 629-644
    Details
    In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 90, No. 5 ( 2009-05), p. 629-644
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0003-0007 , 1520-0477
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/2008BAMS2578.1
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2009
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2029396-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 419957-1
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  • 5
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    Online Resource
    Supplement to Physical Exchanges at the Air–Sea Interface: UK–SOLAS Field Measurements
    American Meteorological Society ; 2009
    In:  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 90, No. 5 ( 2009-05), p. ES9-ES16
    Details
    In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 90, No. 5 ( 2009-05), p. ES9-ES16
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0003-0007 , 1520-0477
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/2008BAMS2578.2
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2009
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2029396-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 419957-1
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    GFDL's CM2 Global Coupled Climate Models. Part I: Formulation and Simulation Characteristics
    American Meteorological Society ; 2006
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 19, No. 5 ( 2006-03-01), p. 643-674
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 19, No. 5 ( 2006-03-01), p. 643-674
    Abstract: The formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled climate models developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) are described. The models were designed to simulate atmospheric and oceanic climate and variability from the diurnal time scale through multicentury climate change, given our computational constraints. In particular, an important goal was to use the same model for both experimental seasonal to interannual forecasting and the study of multicentury global climate change, and this goal has been achieved. Two versions of the coupled model are described, called CM2.0 and CM2.1. The versions differ primarily in the dynamical core used in the atmospheric component, along with the cloud tuning and some details of the land and ocean components. For both coupled models, the resolution of the land and atmospheric components is 2° latitude × 2.5° longitude; the atmospheric model has 24 vertical levels. The ocean resolution is 1° in latitude and longitude, with meridional resolution equatorward of 30° becoming progressively finer, such that the meridional resolution is 1/3° at the equator. There are 50 vertical levels in the ocean, with 22 evenly spaced levels within the top 220 m. The ocean component has poles over North America and Eurasia to avoid polar filtering. Neither coupled model employs flux adjustments. The control simulations have stable, realistic climates when integrated over multiple centuries. Both models have simulations of ENSO that are substantially improved relative to previous GFDL coupled models. The CM2.0 model has been further evaluated as an ENSO forecast model and has good skill (CM2.1 has not been evaluated as an ENSO forecast model). Generally reduced temperature and salinity biases exist in CM2.1 relative to CM2.0. These reductions are associated with 1) improved simulations of surface wind stress in CM2.1 and associated changes in oceanic gyre circulations; 2) changes in cloud tuning and the land model, both of which act to increase the net surface shortwave radiation in CM2.1, thereby reducing an overall cold bias present in CM2.0; and 3) a reduction of ocean lateral viscosity in the extratropics in CM2.1, which reduces sea ice biases in the North Atlantic. Both models have been used to conduct a suite of climate change simulations for the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report and are able to simulate the main features of the observed warming of the twentieth century. The climate sensitivities of the CM2.0 and CM2.1 models are 2.9 and 3.4 K, respectively. These sensitivities are defined by coupling the atmospheric components of CM2.0 and CM2.1 to a slab ocean model and allowing the model to come into equilibrium with a doubling of atmospheric CO2. The output from a suite of integrations conducted with these models is freely available online (see http://nomads.gfdl.noaa.gov/).
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1520-0442 , 0894-8755
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3629.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2006
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 7
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    Online Resource
    On the Seasonal Forecasting of Regional Tropical Cyclone Activity
    American Meteorological Society ; 2014
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 27, No. 21 ( 2014-11-01), p. 7994-8016
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 27, No. 21 ( 2014-11-01), p. 7994-8016
    Abstract: Tropical cyclones (TCs) are a hazard to life and property and a prominent element of the global climate system; therefore, understanding and predicting TC location, intensity, and frequency is of both societal and scientific significance. Methodologies exist to predict basinwide, seasonally aggregated TC activity months, seasons, and even years in advance. It is shown that a newly developed high-resolution global climate model can produce skillful forecasts of seasonal TC activity on spatial scales finer than basinwide, from months and seasons in advance of the TC season. The climate model used here is targeted at predicting regional climate and the statistics of weather extremes on seasonal to decadal time scales, and comprises high-resolution (50 km × 50 km) atmosphere and land components as well as more moderate-resolution (~100 km) sea ice and ocean components. The simulation of TC climatology and interannual variations in this climate model is substantially improved by correcting systematic ocean biases through “flux adjustment.” A suite of 12-month duration retrospective forecasts is performed over the 1981–2012 period, after initializing the climate model to observationally constrained conditions at the start of each forecast period, using both the standard and flux-adjusted versions of the model. The standard and flux-adjusted forecasts exhibit equivalent skill at predicting Northern Hemisphere TC season sea surface temperature, but the flux-adjusted model exhibits substantially improved basinwide and regional TC activity forecasts, highlighting the role of systematic biases in limiting the quality of TC forecasts. These results suggest that dynamical forecasts of seasonally aggregated regional TC activity months in advance are feasible.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00158.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2014
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 8
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    Online Resource
    Unmanned Aircraft Get Together: The LAPSE-RATE Campaign
    American Meteorological Society ; 2020
    In:  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 101, No. 7 ( 2020-07), p. 590-596
    Details
    In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 101, No. 7 ( 2020-07), p. 590-596
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0003-0007 , 1520-0477
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0050.A
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2029396-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 419957-1
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  • 9
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    Online Resource
    Predicting a Decadal Shift in North Atlantic Climate Variability Using the GFDL Forecast System
    American Meteorological Society ; 2014
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 27, No. 17 ( 2014-09-01), p. 6472-6496
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 27, No. 17 ( 2014-09-01), p. 6472-6496
    Abstract: Decadal prediction experiments were conducted as part of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) using the GFDL Climate Model, version 2.1 (CM2.1) forecast system. The abrupt warming of the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (SPG) that was observed in the mid-1990s is considered as a case study to evaluate forecast capabilities and better understand the reasons for the observed changes. Initializing the CM2.1 coupled system produces high skill in retrospectively predicting the mid-1990s shift, which is not captured by the uninitialized forecasts. All the hindcasts initialized in the early 1990s show a warming of the SPG; however, only the ensemble-mean hindcasts initialized in 1995 and 1996 are able to reproduce the observed abrupt warming and the associated decrease and contraction of the SPG. Examination of the physical mechanisms responsible for the successful retrospective predictions indicates that initializing the ocean is key to predicting the mid-1990s warming. The successful initialized forecasts show an increased Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and North Atlantic Current transport, which drive an increased advection of warm saline subtropical waters northward, leading to a westward shift of the subpolar front and, subsequently, a warming and spindown of the SPG. Significant seasonal climate impacts are predicted as the SPG warms, including a reduced sea ice concentration over the Arctic, an enhanced warming over the central United States during summer and fall, and a northward shift of the mean ITCZ. These climate anomalies are similar to those observed during a warm phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, which is encouraging for future predictions of North Atlantic climate.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00476.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2014
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 10
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    Assimilation of a Coordinated Fleet of Uncrewed Aircraft System Observations in Complex Terrain: Observing System Experiments
    American Meteorological Society ; 2022
    In:  Monthly Weather Review Vol. 150, No. 10 ( 2022-10), p. 2737-2763
    Details
    In: Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 150, No. 10 ( 2022-10), p. 2737-2763
    Abstract: Uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) observations from the Lower Atmospheric Profiling Studies at Elevation–A Remotely-Piloted Aircraft Team Experiment (LAPSE-RATE) field campaign were assimilated into a high-resolution configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. The impact of assimilating targeted UAS observations in addition to surface observations was compared to that obtained when assimilating surface observations alone using observing system experiments (OSEs) for a terrain-driven flow case and a convection initiation (CI) case observed within Colorado’s San Luis Valley (SLV). The assimilation of UAS observations in addition to surface observations results in a clear increase in skill for both flow regimes over that obtained when assimilating surface observations alone. For the terrain-driven flow case, the UAS observations improved the representation of thermal stratification across the northern SLV, which produced stronger upvalley flow over the eastern half of the SLV that better matched the observations. For the CI case, the UAS observations improved the representation of the pre-convective environment by reducing dry biases across the SLV and over the surrounding terrain. This led to earlier CI and more organized convection over the foothills that spilled outflows into the SLV, ultimately helping to increase low-level convergence and CI there. In addition, the importance of UAS capturing an outflow that originated over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and triggered CI is discussed. These outflows and subsequent CI were not well captured in the simulation that assimilated surface observations alone. Observations obtained with a fleet of UAS are shown to notably improve high-resolution analyses and short-term predictions of two very different mesogamma-scale weather events.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-0644 , 1520-0493
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-22-0090.1
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2033056-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 202616-8
    SSG: 14
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