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  • American Meteorological Society  (26)
  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    A Homogeneous Record (1896–2006) of Daily Weather and Climate at Mohonk Lake, New York*
    American Meteorological Society ; 2010
    In:  Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology Vol. 49, No. 3 ( 2010-03-01), p. 544-555
    Details
    In: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 49, No. 3 ( 2010-03-01), p. 544-555
    Abstract: Reliable, long-term records of daily weather and climate are relatively rare but are crucial for understanding long-term trends and variability in extreme events and other climate metrics that are not resolvable at the monthly time scale. Here, the distinct features of a continuous, long-term (1896–2006) daily weather record from Mohonk Lake, New York, are highlighted. The site is optimal for daily climate analyses, since it has experienced negligible land-use change, no station moves, and has maintained methodological and instrumental consistency over the entire period of record. Unlike many sites, the site has always used maximum/minimum thermometers rather than shifting to the automated Maximum/Minimum Temperature Sensor. Notable results from the analysis of this record include 1) a warming trend driven largely by trends in maximum temperatures, especially during summer, 2) increasing diurnal temperature range during summer, and 3) a reduction in the number of freeze-days per year with little change in the length of the freeze-free season. These findings deviate from some regional level trends, suggesting there may be value in revisiting selected, consistently monitored, and maintained stations similar to Mohonk for focused analyses of regional climate change.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1558-8432 , 1558-8424
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/2009JAMC2221.1
    RVK:
    UA 4547
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2010
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2227779-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2227759-6
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  • 2
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    Dynamics, Variability, and Change in Seasonal Precipitation Reconstructions for North America
    American Meteorological Society ; 2020
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 33, No. 8 ( 2020-04-15), p. 3173-3195
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 33, No. 8 ( 2020-04-15), p. 3173-3195
    Abstract: Cool- and warm-season precipitation totals have been reconstructed on a gridded basis for North America using 439 tree-ring chronologies correlated with December–April totals and 547 different chronologies correlated with May–July totals. These discrete seasonal chronologies are not significantly correlated with the alternate season; the December–April reconstructions are skillful over most of the southern and western United States and north-central Mexico, and the May–July estimates have skill over most of the United States, southwestern Canada, and northeastern Mexico. Both the strong continent-wide El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal embedded in the cool-season reconstructions and the Arctic Oscillation signal registered by the warm-season estimates faithfully reproduce the sign, intensity, and spatial patterns of these ocean–atmospheric influences on North American precipitation as recorded with instrumental data. The reconstructions are included in the North American Seasonal Precipitation Atlas (NASPA) and provide insight into decadal droughts and pluvials. They indicate that the sixteenth-century megadrought, the most severe and sustained North American drought of the past 500 years, was the combined result of three distinct seasonal droughts, each bearing unique spatial patterns potentially associated with seasonal forcing from ENSO, the Arctic Oscillation, and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Significant 200–500-yr-long trends toward increased precipitation have been detected in the cool- and warm-season reconstructions for eastern North America. These seasonal precipitation changes appear to be part of the positive moisture trend measured in other paleoclimate proxies for the eastern area that began as a result of natural forcing before the industrial revolution and may have recently been enhanced by anthropogenic climate change.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0270.1
    DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0270.s1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 3
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    Online Resource
    Bridging Past and Future Climate across Paleoclimatic Reconstructions, Observations, and Models: A Hydroclimate Case Study*
    American Meteorological Society ; 2015
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 28, No. 8 ( 2015-04-15), p. 3212-3231
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 28, No. 8 ( 2015-04-15), p. 3212-3231
    Abstract: Potential biases in tree-ring reconstructed Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) are evaluated using Thornthwaite (TH), Penman–Monteith (PM), and self-calibrating Penman–Monteith (SC) PDSI in three diverse regions of the United States and tree-ring chronologies from the North American drought atlas (NADA). Minimal differences are found between the three PDSI reconstructions and all compare favorably to independently reconstructed Thornthwaite-based PDSI from the NADA. Reconstructions are bridged with model-derived PDSI_TH and PDSI_PM, which both closely track modeled soil moisture (near surface and full column) during the twentieth century. Differences between modeled moisture-balance metrics only emerge in twenty-first-century projections. These differences confirm the tendency of PDSI_TH to overestimate drying when temperatures exceed the range of the normalization interval; the more physical accounting of PDSI_PM compares well with modeled soil moisture in the projection interval. Remaining regional differences in the secular behavior of projected soil moisture and PDSI_PM are interpreted in terms of underlying physical processes and temporal sampling. Results demonstrate the continued utility of PDSI as a metric of surface moisture balance while additionally providing two recommendations for future work: 1) PDSI_PM (or similar moisture-balance metrics) compare well to modeled soil moisture and are an appropriate means of representing soil-moisture balance in model simulations and 2) although PDSI_PM is more physically appropriate than PDSI_TH, the latter metric does not bias tree-ring reconstructions of past hydroclimate variability and, as such, reconstructions targeting PDSI_TH can be used with confidence in data–model comparisons. These recommendations and the collective results of this study thus provide a framework for comparing hydroclimate variability within paleoclimatic, observational, and modeled data.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00417.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2015
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 4
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    Climate and the Global Famine of 1876–78
    American Meteorological Society ; 2018
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 31, No. 23 ( 2018-12), p. 9445-9467
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 31, No. 23 ( 2018-12), p. 9445-9467
    Abstract: From 1875 to 1878, concurrent multiyear droughts in Asia, Brazil, and Africa, referred to as the Great Drought, caused widespread crop failures, catalyzing the so-called Global Famine, which had fatalities exceeding 50 million people and long-lasting societal consequences. Observations, paleoclimate reconstructions, and climate model simulations are used 1) to demonstrate the severity and characterize the evolution of drought across different regions, and 2) to investigate the underlying mechanisms driving its multiyear persistence. Severe or record-setting droughts occurred on continents in both hemispheres and in multiple seasons, with the “Monsoon Asia” region being the hardest hit, experiencing the single most intense and the second most expansive drought in the last 800 years. The extreme severity, duration, and extent of this global event is associated with an extraordinary combination of preceding cool tropical Pacific conditions (1870–76), a record-breaking El Niño (1877–78), a record strong Indian Ocean dipole (1877), and record warm North Atlantic Ocean (1878) conditions. Composites of historical analogs and two sets of ensemble simulations—one forced with global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and another forced with tropical Pacific SSTs—were used to distinguish the role of the extreme conditions in different ocean basins. While the drought in most regions was largely driven by the tropical Pacific SST conditions, an extreme positive phase of the Indian Ocean dipole and warm North Atlantic SSTs, both likely aided by the strong El Niño in 1877–78, intensified and prolonged droughts in Australia and Brazil, respectively, and extended the impact to northern and southeastern Africa. Climatic conditions that caused the Great Drought and Global Famine arose from natural variability, and their recurrence, with hydrological impacts intensified by global warming, could again potentially undermine global food security.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0159.1
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0159.s1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 5
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    Precipitation, Temperature, and Teleconnection Signals across the Combined North American, Monsoon Asia, and Old World Drought Atlases
    American Meteorological Society ; 2017
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 30, No. 18 ( 2017-09-15), p. 7141-7155
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 30, No. 18 ( 2017-09-15), p. 7141-7155
    Abstract: The tree-ring-based North American Drought Atlas (NADA), Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA), and Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) collectively yield a near-hemispheric gridded reconstruction of hydroclimate variability over the last millennium. To test the robustness of the large-scale representation of hydroclimate variability across the drought atlases, the joint expression of seasonal climate variability and teleconnections in the NADA, MADA, and OWDA are compared against two global, observation-based PDSI products. Predominantly positive (negative) correlations are determined between seasonal precipitation (surface air temperature) and collocated tree-ring-based PDSI, with average Pearson’s correlation coefficients increasing in magnitude from boreal winter to summer. For precipitation, these correlations tend to be stronger in the boreal winter and summer when calculated for the observed PDSI record, while remaining similar for temperature. Notwithstanding these differences, the drought atlases robustly express teleconnection patterns associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). These expressions exist in the drought atlas estimates of boreal summer PDSI despite the fact that these modes of climate variability are dominant in boreal winter, with the exception of the AMO. ENSO and NAO teleconnection patterns in the drought atlases are particularly consistent with their well-known dominant expressions in boreal winter and over the OWDA domain, respectively. Collectively, the findings herein confirm that the joint Northern Hemisphere drought atlases robustly reflect large-scale patterns of hydroclimate variability on seasonal to multidecadal time scales over the twentieth century and are likely to provide similarly robust estimates of hydroclimate variability prior to the existence of widespread instrumental data.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0766.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 6
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    Pan-Continental Droughts in North America over the Last Millennium*
    American Meteorological Society ; 2014
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 27, No. 1 ( 2014-01-01), p. 383-397
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 27, No. 1 ( 2014-01-01), p. 383-397
    Abstract: Regional droughts are common in North America, but pan-continental droughts extending across multiple regions, including the 2012 event, are rare relative to single-region events. Here, the tree-ring-derived North American Drought Atlas is used to investigate drought variability in four regions over the last millennium, focusing on pan-continental droughts. During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the central plains (CP), Southwest (SW), and Southeast (SE) regions experienced drier conditions and increased occurrence of droughts and the Northwest (NW) experienced several extended pluvials. Enhanced MCA aridity in the SW and CP manifested as multidecadal megadroughts. Notably, megadroughts in these regions differed in their timing and persistence, suggesting that they represent regional events influenced by local dynamics rather than a unified, continental-scale phenomena. There is no trend in pan-continental drought occurrence, defined as synchronous droughts in three or more regions. SW, CP, and SE (SW+CP+SE) droughts are the most common, occurring in 12% of all years and peaking in prevalence during the twelfth and thirteenth centuries; patterns involving three other regions occur in about 8% of years. Positive values of the Southern Oscillation index (La Niña conditions) are linked to SW, CP, and SE (SW+CP+SE) droughts and SW, CP, and NW (SW+CP+NW) droughts, whereas CP, NW, and SE (CP+NW+SE) droughts are associated with positive values of the Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. While relatively rare, pan-continental droughts are present in the paleo record and are linked to defined modes of climate variability, implying the potential for seasonal predictability. Assuming stable drought teleconnections, these events will remain an important feature of future North American hydroclimate, possibly increasing in their severity in step with other expected hydroclimate responses to increased greenhouse gas forcing.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00100.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2014
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
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  • 7
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    Competing Influences of Anthropogenic Warming, ENSO, and Plant Physiology on Future Terrestrial Aridity
    American Meteorological Society ; 2017
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 30, No. 17 ( 2017-09), p. 6883-6904
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 30, No. 17 ( 2017-09), p. 6883-6904
    Abstract: The 2011–16 California drought illustrates that drought-prone areas do not always experience relief once a favorable phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) returns. In the twenty-first century, such an expectation is unrealistic in regions where global warming induces an increase in terrestrial aridity larger than the changes in aridity driven by ENSO variability. This premise is also flawed in areas where precipitation supply cannot offset the global warming–induced increase in evaporative demand. Here, atmosphere-only experiments are analyzed to identify land regions where aridity is currently sensitive to ENSO and where projected future changes in mean aridity exceed the range caused by ENSO variability. Insights into the drivers of these changes in aridity are obtained using simulations with the incremental addition of three different factors to the current climate: ocean warming, vegetation response to elevated CO 2 levels, and intensified CO 2 radiative forcing. The effect of ocean warming overwhelms the range of ENSO-driven temperature variability worldwide, increasing potential evapotranspiration (PET) in most ENSO-sensitive regions. Additionally, about 39% of the regions currently sensitive to ENSO will likely receive less precipitation in the future, independent of the ENSO phase. Consequently aridity increases in 67%–72% of the ENSO-sensitive area. When both radiative and physiological effects are considered, the area affected by arid conditions rises to 75%–79% when using PET-derived measures of aridity, but declines to 41% when an aridity indicator for total soil moisture is employed. This reduction mainly occurs because plant stomatal resistance increases under enhanced CO 2 concentrations, resulting in improved plant water-use efficiency, and hence reduced evapotranspiration and soil desiccation. Imposing CO 2 -invariant stomatal resistance may overestimate future drying in PET-derived indices.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0005.1
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0005.s1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 8
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    Dynamics and Variability of the Spring Dry Season in the United States Southwest as Observed in AmeriFlux and NLDAS-2 Data
    American Meteorological Society ; 2019
    In:  Journal of Hydrometeorology Vol. 20, No. 6 ( 2019-06-01), p. 1081-1102
    Details
    In: Journal of Hydrometeorology, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 20, No. 6 ( 2019-06-01), p. 1081-1102
    Abstract: The spring dry season occurring in an arid region of the southwestern United States, which receives both winter storm track and summer monsoon precipitation, is investigated. Bimodal precipitation and vegetation growth provide an opportunity to assess multiple climate mechanisms and their impact on hydroclimate and ecosystems. We detect multiple shifts from wet to drier conditions in the observational record and land surface model output. Focusing on the recent dry period, a shift in the late 1990s resulted in earlier and greater spring soil moisture draw down, and later and reduced spring vegetation green-up, compared to a prior wet period (1979–97). A simple soil moisture balance model shows this shift is driven by changes in winter precipitation. The recent post-1999 dry period and an earlier one from 1948 to 1966 are both related to the cool tropics phase of Pacific decadal variability, which influences winter precipitation. In agreement with other studies for the southwestern United States, we find the recent drought cannot be explained in terms of precipitation alone, but also is due to the rising influence of temperature, thus highlighting the sensitivity of this region to warming temperatures. Future changes in the spring dry season will therefore be affected by how tropical decadal variability evolves, and also by emerging trends due to human-driven warming.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1525-755X , 1525-7541
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-18-0154.1
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2042176-X
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  • 9
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    Diverging Global Dry and Humid Heat Responses to Modern Irrigation
    American Meteorological Society ; 2023
    In:  Earth Interactions Vol. 27, No. 1 ( 2023-01)
    Details
    In: Earth Interactions, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 27, No. 1 ( 2023-01)
    Abstract: The moderating influence of irrigation on dry heat extremes is well established, but the effect of irrigation on humid heat is more uncertain. Here, we study the impact of modern irrigation on both dry and humid heat-wave occurrences during the boreal summer using the NASA GISS Earth System Model (ModelE) with and without present-day irrigation. We show that the presence of modern irrigation reduces the total number of dry heat waves in most land areas, especially in arid and temperate regions. In contrast, humid heat waves occur more frequently under modern irrigation, especially in the Mediterranean Sea region, northern Africa, southern Africa, and the Middle East. Present-day irrigation reduces dry heat extremes by favoring latent heating over sensible heating and lowering surface solar radiation by increasing total cloud cover. Meanwhile, modern irrigation drives increases in humid heat through increases in specific humidity and precipitation. Notably, the reduction in dry heat is mostly localized over irrigated grid cells while humid heat increases both in locally irrigated areas and remote (nonirrigated) regions because of widespread increases in humidity associated with irrigation. Our results suggest that irrigation may amplify humid heat, even in nonirrigated areas, highlighting the importance of improving our understanding of both local and remote effects of the irrigation forcing on climate hazards.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1087-3562
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/EI-D-23-0006.1
    DOI: 10.1175/EI-D-23-0006.s1
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2025258-4
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  • 10
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    Megadroughts in Southwestern North America in ECHO-G Millennial Simulations and Their Comparison to Proxy Drought Reconstructions*
    American Meteorological Society ; 2013
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 26, No. 19 ( 2013-10-01), p. 7635-7649
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 26, No. 19 ( 2013-10-01), p. 7635-7649
    Abstract: Simulated hydroclimate variability in millennium-length forced transient and control simulations from the ECHAM and the global Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation (ECHO-G) coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) is analyzed and compared to 1000 years of reconstructed Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) variability from the North American Drought Atlas (NADA). The ability of the model to simulate megadroughts in the North American southwest is evaluated. (NASW: 25°–42.5°N, 125°–105°W). Megadroughts in the ECHO-G AOGCM are found to be similar in duration and magnitude to those estimated from the NADA. The droughts in the forced simulation are not, however, temporally synchronous with those in the paleoclimate record, nor are there significant differences between the drought features simulated in the forced and control runs. These results indicate that model-simulated megadroughts can result from internal variability of the modeled climate system rather than as a response to changes in exogenous forcings. Although the ECHO-G AOGCM is capable of simulating megadroughts through persistent La Niña–like conditions in the tropical Pacific, other mechanisms can produce similarly extreme NASW moisture anomalies in the model. In particular, the lack of low-frequency coherence between NASW soil moisture and simulated modes of climate variability like the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation, and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation during identified drought periods suggests that stochastic atmospheric variability can contribute significantly to the occurrence of simulated megadroughts in the NASW. These findings indicate that either an expanded paradigm is needed to understand multidecadal hydroclimate variability in the NASW or AOGCMs may incorrectly simulate the strength and/or dynamics of the connection between NASW hydroclimate variability and the tropical Pacific.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00603.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2013
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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