Description: The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 years ago (lig127k), designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models as for the future and following a common experimental protocol. Here we present a first analysis of a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 1.8 to 5.6 ∘C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the CMIP6 piControl and much-reduced minimum sea ice in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than the CMIP6 midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 than 6 ka. New synthesis for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and for precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model–data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions. The CMIP6–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, improve our confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, and Arctic sea ice, thus providing a key target for model evaluation and optimization.

Description: The last extended time period when climate may have been warmer than today was during the Last Interglacial (LIG; ca. 129 to 120 thousand years ago). However, a global view of LIG precipitation is lacking. Here, seven new LIG climate models are compared to the first global database of proxies for LIG precipitation. In this way, models are assessed in their ability to capture important hydroclimatic processes during a different climate. The models can reproduce the proxy-based positive precipitation anomalies from the preindustrial period over much of the boreal continents. Over the Southern Hemisphere, proxy-model agreement is partial. In models, LIG boreal monsoons have 42% wider area than in the preindustrial and produce 55% more precipitation and 50% more extreme precipitation. Austral monsoons are weaker. The mechanisms behind these changes are consistent with stronger summer radiative forcing over boreal high latitudes and with the associated higher temperatures during the LIG.

Description: While the influence of precession on monsoon at low latitudes through insolation forcing is well-known, the role of obliquity is still debated since its influence on the distribution of incoming solar radiation is small in these regions. In southern Africa, long marine and terrestrial sedimentary records attest of a precessional influence on the South African monsoon at orbital time scale. The obliquity signal is occasionally observed in the geological records although modeling results suggest an influence of precession and obliquity on summer monsoon. Here, we present a record of microscopic charcoal from core MD96-2098 located off Namibia covering the past 184,000 years. Our record of fire activity reveals cyclic changes at frequencies of 23, 58 and 12 kyr−1 and lacks the obliquity signal at 41 kyr−1. Changes in fire over southern Africa are interpreted as shifts in large and intense fires spreading in open-grassland savanna as a result of orbitally-driven changes in rainfall intensity associated with the South African monsoon. We show that, despite the absence of a 41 kyr obliquity imprint, the presence of 23, 58 and 12 kyr−1 frequencies likely stems from a nonlinear response of fire to precipitation controlled by a combination of precession and obliquity frequencies, supporting the influence of obliquity on the South African monsoon.