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  • 11
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 40 (15). pp. 3997-4000.
    Publication Date: 2017-06-20
    Description: Current research indicates an increase in Agulhas leakage for the past and coming decades. This change potentially alters the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, in particular, through advection of positive density anomalies into the North Atlantic. To explore the fate of Agulhas leakage, results from a Lagrangian analysis were evaluated, with virtual floats advected within an eddy-permitting ocean model (ORCA025). A considerable fraction of Agulhas leakage reached the subtropical North Atlantic: of a mean Agulhas leakage transport of 15.3 Sv entering the South Atlantic, 9.7, 7.7, and 6.1 Sv crossed sections at 6 degrees S, 6 degrees N, and 26 degrees N, respectively. The most probable transit time of leakage to reach the respective latitudes is one to two decades. We suggest that changes in Agulhas leakage could manifest in the Gulf Stream regime most probably within two decades. These results were supported by an eddy-resolving implementation of the ocean model (INALT01)
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: The upper ocean circulation of the Pacific and Indian Oceans is connected through both the Indonesian Throughflow north of Australia and the Tasman leakage around its south. The relative importance of these two pathways is examined using virtual Lagrangian particles in a high-resolution nested ocean model. The unprecedented combination of a long integration time within an eddy-permitting ocean model simulation allows the first assessment of the interannual variability of these pathways in a realistic setting. The mean Indonesian Throughflow, as diagnosed by the particles, is 14.3 Sv, considerably higher than the diagnosed average Tasman leakage of 4.2 Sv. The time series of Indonesian Throughflow agrees well with the Eulerian transport through the major Indonesian Passages, validating the Lagrangian approach using transport-tagged particles. While the Indonesian Throughflow is mainly associated with upper ocean pathways, the Tasman leakage is concentrated in the 400–900 m depth range at subtropical latitudes. Over the effective period considered (1968–1994), no apparent relationship is found between the Tasman leakage and Indonesian Throughflow. However, the Indonesian Throughflow transport correlates with ENSO. During strong La Niñas, more water of Southern Hemisphere origin flows through Makassar, Moluccas, Ombai, and Timor Straits, but less through Moluccas Strait. In general, each strait responds differently to ENSO, highlighting the complex nature of the ENSO-ITF interaction.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 13
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union)
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 37 (9). L09610.
    Publication Date: 2017-06-20
    Description: The linear relation between the strength of the Agulhas Current at nominal latitude 34°S and the gradient in sea level height anomaly across the current is investigated in a 1/10° resolution regional numerical ocean model. Our results show that the strength of the current can be estimated with reasonable accuracy using altimeter data, once it has been calibrated using in-situ transport measurements. Three years of transport measurements provide a calibration with worst-case correlation R = 0.78. In that case the errors in proxy transport have a standard deviation of 9.8 Sv, compared to a 20.2 Sv standard deviation of the transport time series itself. From these results we conclude that the design of the Agulhas Current Timeseries (ACT) experiment, a three-year deployment of moorings across the Agulhas Current and along a TOPEX/Jason altimeter ground track, will likely produce a good quality multi-decadal time series of Agulhas Current strength.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 14
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union)
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (10). L10605.
    Publication Date: 2017-06-20
    Description: Key Points: - New observations show westward propagating salinity anomalies in S.Atlantic AAIW - They are the dominant form of variability on subdecadal timescales in a model - They have a speed close to the speed of second baroclinic mode Rossby waves Variability of Antarctic Intermediate Water salinity in the South Atlantic is investigated on interannual and intradecadal timescales. Novel observations of slow, westward propagating salinity anomalies in Argo data are presented. The features have no corresponding signal in temperature and are anomalous in density. Analysis of 40 years of model output supports the existence of these westward propagating salinity anomalies and indicates that they are typical occurrences in time. The features are intensified in a latitude band around 30°S associated with the propagation of Agulhas rings. However, the features are much larger than Agulhas rings and occur on decadal timescales in the model. They propagate westward with speeds of 2.3 cm/s in observations, and 1.7 cm/s in model data. They are more consistent with planetary waves than with the advection of large-scale salinity anomalies. The observation of these features has implications for the interpretation of salinity anomalies, such as the linking of hydrological cycle changes to salinity changes.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 15
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 43 . pp. 4517-4523.
    Publication Date: 2019-02-26
    Description: The response of eddy kinetic energy (EKE) to the strengthening of Southern Hemisphere winds occurring since the 1950s is investigated with a global ocean model having a resolution of 1/12° in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current domain. The simulations expose regional differences in the relative importance of stochastic and wind-related contributions to inter-annual EKE changes. In the Pacific and Indian sectors the model captures the EKE variability observed since 1993 and confirms previous hypotheses of a lagged response to regional wind stress anomalies. Here, the multi-decadal trend in wind stress is reflected in an increase in EKE typically exceeding 5 cm2 sec-2 decade-1. In the western Atlantic EKE variability is mostly stochastic, is weakly correlated with wind fluctuations, and its multi-decadal trends are close to zero. The non-uniform distribution of wind-related changes in the eddy activity could affect the regional patterns of ocean circulation and biogeochemical responses to future climate change.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 16
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 8 (2). pp. 904-916.
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
    Description: If unstructured meshes are refined to locally represent eddy dynamics in ocean circulation models, a practical question arises on how to vary the resolution and where to deploy the refinement. We propose to use the observed sea surface height variability as the refinement criterion. We explore the utility of this method (i) in a suite of idealized experiments simulating a wind-driven double gyre flow in a stratified circular basin and (ii) in simulations of global ocean circulation performed with FESOM. Two practical approaches of mesh refinement are compared. In the first approach the uniform refinement is confined within the areas where the observed variability exceeds a given threshold. In the second one the refinement varies linearly following the observed variability. The resolution is fixed in time. For the double gyre case it is shown that the variability obtained in a high-resolution reference run can be well captured on variable-resolution meshes if they are refined where the variability is high and additionally upstream the jet separation point. The second approach of mesh refinement proves to be more beneficial in terms of improvement downstream the midlatitude jet. Similarly, in global ocean simulations the mesh refinement based on the observed variability helps the model to simulate high variability at correct locations. The refinement also leads to a reduced bias in the upper-ocean temperature
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 17
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union)
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 112 . C09017.
    Publication Date: 2018-04-19
    Description: An eddy-permitting circulation model of the Atlantic Ocean was used to study the effect of mesoscale processes on the uptake and spreading of anthropogenic CO2 and CFC-11. A comparison with a coarser-resolution model version shows anthropogenic tracer distributions with qualitatively similar patterns, but much more structure (e.g., stronger longitudinal gradients) in the eddy-permitting model, improving the agreement with observations. The better representation of the formation of water masses such as subpolar-mode water in the eddy-permitting model has an influence on the distribution of anthropogenic CO2 over density classes, but no influence on the total inventory taken up. In the subpolar Atlantic, the air-sea flux of CFC-11 is dominated by deep-water formation, while the air-sea flux of anthropogenic CO2 extends over a larger part of the subpolar gyre and has a clear association with North Atlantic surface currents. An in-depth analysis of the mechanisms shaping this distribution showed that the entrainment of water from below into the mixed layer determines the structure in the subpolar North Atlantic, whereas the temporal correlation between surface heat fluxes and mixed-layer depth is more important in the subtropical gyre. The northward, integrated heat and anthropogenic CO2 transports in midlatitudes are closely correlated on seasonal to interannual timescales. This has implications for using the ongoing monitoring arrays of the thermohaline circulation for estimation of the transport of anthropogenic CO2.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 18
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union)
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 36 . L03601.
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: Time series of transports in the Agulhas region have been constructed by simulating Lagrangian drifter trajectories in a 1/10 degree two-way nested ocean model. Using these 34 year long time series it is shown that smaller (larger) Agulhas Current transport leads to larger (smaller) Indian-Atlantic inter-ocean exchange. When transport is low, the Agulhas Current detaches farther downstream from the African continental slope. Moreover, the lower inertia suppresses generation of anti-cyclonic vorticity. These two effects cause the Agulhas retroflection to move westward and enhance Agulhas leakage. In the model a 1 Sv decrease in Agulhas Current transport at 32 degrees S results in a 0.7 +/- 0.2 Sv increase in Agulhas leakage
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 19
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, 94 (10). p. 100.
    Publication Date: 2016-08-05
    Description: AGU Chapman Conference: The Agulhas System and Its Role in Changing Ocean Circulation, Climate, and Marine Ecosystems; Stellenbosch, South Africa, 8–12 October 2012
    Type: Article , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2017-06-20
    Description: Multi-decadal weakening trend of the equatorial Pacific easterly winds since 1960 has reversed after 1993. The trend reversal has induced cooling (shallow thermocline) trend in the equatorial western Pacific before 1993, followed by a warming (deep thermocline) trend from 1993 to the present. All available atmospheric reanalysis products corroborate the trend reversal during the two multi-decadal periods. The magnitudes of the multi-decadal trends of the easterly winds, however, differ among the reanalysis products. The trend reversals of regional ocean circulations are assessed using linear regressions between wind and transport anomalies in an eddy-permitting numerical model, suggesting that since 1993 the Indonesian Throughflow and the Leeuwin Current transports have also reversed their multi-decadal weakening trends. Key Points: - There have been reversals of the multi-decadal weakening trends of trade winds - Different reanalysis products capture different trends in trade winds
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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