Notes: Abstract Fishes of the Great Lakes contain hazardous chemicals such as synthetic halogenated hydrocarbons and metals. These fish can move from the lakes into the Great Lakes tributaries of Michigan. In doing so, they transport concentrationsof contaminants which may represent a risk to wildlife. Concentrations of mercury (Hg), total polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin equivalents (TCDD-EQ), total DDT complex, aldrin, endrin, dieldrin, heptachlor, heptachlor epoxide, lindane, hexachlorobenzene, cis-chlordane, oxychlordane, endosulfan-I, methoxychlor, trans-chlordane, and trans-nonachlor were determined in composite samples of fishes from above and below Michigan hydroelectric dams, which separate the fishes which have access to the Great Lakes from fishes that do not. Mean concentrations of total PCBs, TCDD-EQ, DDT, and most of the other pesticides were greater in composite samples of six species of fishes from below than above the dams on the Au Sable, Manistee, and Muskegon Rivers. Concentrations of mercury, were the same or greater above the dams than below. However, this difference was statistically significant only on the Au Sable. Mercury concentrations ranged from less than 0.05 mg/kg to 0.73 mg Hg/kg, ww. Total concentrations of PCBs ranged from 0.02 to 1.7 mg/kg, ww. Concentrations of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlordibenzo-p-dioxin equivalents varied among fishes and locations. The concentrations of TCDD-EQ ranged from 2.4 to 71 μg/kg, ww, with concentrations in carp being the greatest. Concentrations of TCDD-EQ were greater than the concentrations which would be expected to occur, due solely to the presence of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDD), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDF), and technical mixtures of PCBs.

Notes: [Auszug] Significant urbanization effects have been noted at many cities7'11. Two factors must be considered, however, when comparing individual city 'heat island' magnitudes with hemispheric warming trends. First, many of the extreme urban biases that have been quoted are the largest daily occurrences, ...

Notes: [Auszug] Tree-ring data have been used to reconstruct the mean summer (April-August) temperature of northern Fennoscandia for each year from AD 500 to the present. Summer temperatures have fluctuated markedly on annual, decadal and century timescales. There is little evidence for the existence of a Medieval ...

Notes: Abstract In this study, the control simulations of two general circulation model (GCM) experiments are assessed in terms of their ability to reproduce realistic ‘real world’ weather. The models examined are the UK Meteorological Office high-resolution atmospheric model (UKHI) and a coupled ocean/atmosphere model of the Max Planck Institut für Meteorologic, Hamburg (MPI). An objective classification of daily airflow patterns over the British Isles is used as a basis for comparing the frequencies of model-generated weather types with the frequencies derived from 110 years of observed mean-sea-level pressure (MSLP) fields. The weather-type frequencies generated by the GCMs, and their relationships with simulated monthly mean temperatures and total precipitation over the UK, are compared, season by season, with similar results derived using the observational data. An index of gale frequencies over the British Isles, derived from a similar objective analysis of daily MSLP fields, is used to evaluate the ability of the GCMs to simulate the observed frequency of storm events. One advantage of using 110 years of observational data is that the observed decadal-scale variability of climate can be introduced into this type of validation exercise. Both the GCMs assessed here are too cyclonic in winter. The seasonality of both anticyclonic and cyclonic types is much too strong in MPI and summer precipitation in this model is greatly underestimated. MPI simulates the annual cycle of temperature well, while UKHI successfully reproduces the annual cycle of precipitation. The analysis also indicates that the summer temperature variability of the two models is not driven by circulation changes.

Notes: Abstract This paper examines the success of various Markov-chain models of daily precipitation series in reproducing the characteristics of area-average rainfall in Britain. The first model considered is the standard twos-tate first-order Markov renewal process coupled to an amount model using the incomplete Γ-probability distribution. We find that variability of seasonal totals and autocorrelation of daily amounts are both too small in this model, compared with observations. These are serious deficiencies, often overlooked, and possibly related. We proceed to consider models involving Markov chains of higher (temporal) order and many states, both of which generalizations may increase autocorrelation. A second-order two-state model is no better than the first-order, but a first-order many-state model captures a high fraction of the seasonal variability, because use of many states improves the model's representation of spells of heavy precipitation, which appear to have a considerable influence on the seasonal variance. Better still is a second-order many-state model, a type which, to our knowledge, has not previously been investigated. We suggest that the best model would have a continuum of states, rather than a discrete set. Our conclusion is that a large proportion of seasonal variability may be explained in terms of the average daily structure, but there may be a residual component caused by processes operating on longer time-scales and possibly predictable with reference to these. Reproduction of long-period (e.g. monthly or seasonal) variance and of the structure of daily autocorrelation provide crucial tests of stochastic “weather generators”, and we recommend that models which fail to simulate these statistics realistically be used only with great caution.

Notes: Abstract Populations of mink (Mustela vison) have declined in many areas of the world. Such declines have been linked to exposures to synthetic, halogenated hydrocarbons. In the Great Lakes region, mink are fewer in areas along the shore of the Great Lakes and their tributaries where mink have access to fish from the Great Lakes. Recently, there has been discussion of the relative merits of passage of fishes around hydroelectric dams on rivers in Michigan. A hazard assessment was conducted to determine the potential for adverse effects on mink, which could consume such fishes from above or below dams on the rivers. Concentrations of organochlorine insecticides, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), 2,3,7,8-tetrachloridibenzo-p-dioxin equivalents (TCDD-EQ), and total mercury were measured in composite samples of fishes from above or below hydroelectric dams on the Manistee and Muskegon Rivers, which flow into Lake Michigan, and the Au Sable River, which flows into Lake Huron. Concentrations of organochlorine insecticides, PCBs, and TCDD-EQ were all greater in fishes from below the dams than those from above. Concentrations of neither organochlorine insecticides nor mercury in fishes are currently a risk to mink above or below the dams. All of the species of fishes collected from downstream of the dams contained concentrations of PCBs and TCDD-EQ, which represent a hazard to mink. The hazard index for PCBs was less than one for the average of all species from the upstream reaches of the Manistee and Au Sable Rivers, but not the Muskegon. The hazard index (concentration in fish/NOAEC) was greater than 1 for all of the species collected from below the dams, in all three rivers. The greatest hazard index was observed for carp (Cyprinus carpio) downstream on the Muskegon River. Because the concentrations of PCBs used in the hazard assessment were corrected for relative toxic potencies, the hazard ratios based on PCBs should be similar to those based on TCDD-EQ. This was found to be true. Thus, either total PCBs or TCDD-EQ could be used as the critical toxicant in the hazard assessment. However, if uncorrected concentrations of PCBs, expressed as Aroclors®, were used in the hazard assessment, the toxicity of the weathered mixture would have been underestimated by approximately five-fold, and, in that instance, TCDD-EQ would be the critical contaminant for the hazard assessment. The average maximum allowable percentage of fish from above the dams, which would result in no observable adverse effects of TCDD-EQ, was 70%. Based on the average TCDD-EQ concentrations in the fishes, an average of 8.6% of the diet could be made up of fishes from below dams on the rivers. The most restrictive daily allowable intakes were for carp on the Muskegon and steelhead trout (Onchorhyncus mykiss) on the Manistee Rivers. Only 2.7% of the diet could be made up of these two species from influenced portion of the Au Sable River, they would be exposed to 390 μg PCBs and 8.55 ng of TCDD-EQ per day, respectively (Giesy et al. 1994b). Thus, it would take 15.1 or 77 days for mink to receive their total annual dose of PCBs or TCDD-EQ, respectively. At least for chinook salmon, the critical contaminant for the purposes of hazard assessment would be total concentrations of PCBs. Consuming chinook salmon for as little as 2 weeks would deliver the annual allowable dose of PCBs to mink.

Notes: Abstract Quantitative estimates of 1480 years of summer temperatures in northern Fennoscandia have previously been derived from continuous treering records from northern Sweden. Here we show the results of spectral analyses of these data. Only a few peaks in the spectra are consistently significant when the data are analyzed over a number of sub-periods. Relatively timestable peaks are apparent at periods of 2.1, 2.5, 3.1, 3.6, 4.8, ∼ 32–33 and for a range between ∼ 55–100 years. These results offer no strong evidence for solar-related forcing of summer temperatures in these regions. Our previously published reconstruction was limited in its ability to represent long-timescale temperature change because of the method used to standardize the original tree-ring data. Here we employ an alternative standardization technique which enables us to capture temperature change on longer timescales. Considerable variance is now reconstructed on timescales of several centuries. In comparison with modern normals (1951–70) generally extended periods when cool conditions prevailed, prior to the start of the instrumental record, include 500–700, 790–870, 1110–1150, 1190–1360, 1570–1750 (A.D.) with the most significant cold troughs centred on about 660, 800, 1140, 1580–1620 and 1640. Predominantly warm conditions occurred in 720–790, 870–1110 and 1360–1570 with peaks of warmth around 750, 930, 990, 1060, 1090, 1160, 1410, 1430, 1760 and 1820.

Notes: Abstract This investigation addresses two general issues regarding the role of pattern similarity statistics in greenhouse warming detection studies: normalization, and the relative merits of centered versus uncentered statistics. A pattern correlation statistic is used to search for the greenhouse warming signals predicted by five different models in the observed records of land and ocean surface temperature changes. Two forms of this statistic were computed: R (t), which makes use of nonnormalized data, and $$\tilde R$$ (t), which employs point-wise normalized data in order to focus the search on regions where the signal-to-noise ratio is large. While there are no trends in the R (t) time series, the time series of $$\tilde R$$ (t) show large positive trends. However, it is not possible to infer from the $$\tilde R$$ (t) results that the observed pattern of temperature change is, in fact, becoming increasingly similar to the model-predicted signal. This is because point-wise normalization of the observed and simulated mean change fields by a single common field introduces a “common factor” effect, which means that the quantities being compared should show some similarity a priori. This does not necessarily make normalization inapplicable, because the detection test involves seeking a trend in the similarity statistic. We show, however, that trends in $$\tilde R$$ (t) must arise almost completely from the observed data, and cannot be an indicator of increasing observed data/signal similarity. We also compare the information provided by centered statistics such as R(t) and the uncentered C(t) statistic introduced by Barnett. We show that C(t) may be expressed as the weighted sum of two terms, one proportional to R(t) and the other proportional to the observed spatial mean. For near-surface temperatures, the spatial average term dominates over the R(t) term. In this case the use of C(t) is equivalent to the use of spatial-mean temperature. We conclude that at present, the most informative pattern correlation statistic for detection purposes is R(t), the standard product-moment correlation coefficient between the observed and model fields. Our failure to find meaningful trends in R(t) may be due to the fact that the signal is being obscured by the background noise of natural variability, and/or because of incorrect model signals or sensitivities.

Notes: Abstract The primary purpose of this publication is to make available two series of historical maps showing ‘summer’ (April–September mean) temperatures over western Europe from A.D. 1750 and western North America from A.D. 1600. These maps have been reconstructed using networks of temperature-sensitive tree-ring chronologies as part of a continuing collaboration between the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (FSL) at Birmensdorf, Switzerland and the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia, Norwich, U.K. The maps were reconstructed using relatively long maximum latewood density chronologies selected from the extensive networks of tree-ring data produced at the FSL. The reconstructions were produced using a spatial regression technique developed at CRU. The basis for the reconstructions are wood samples from various conifers growing at cool-moist sites close to the alpine or boreal timberlines. This material was analysed by x-ray densitometry and the resulting maximum latewood density chronologies were calibrated against meteorological data over a 100-year calibration period. These results emphasize the value of dendroclimatological research which can provide continentalscale reconstructions of past climate which represent a potential resource for climatologists, biologists, and historians with an interest in the spatial variability of summer temperatures over the middle to high latitudes.