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  • 1995-1999  (5)
Document type
Publisher
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Year
  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Climate response to increasing levels of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols (1995)
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 376 (1995), S. 501-504 
    Details
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] The general circulation model (GCM) used is the Hadley Centre climate model, a development from an earlier model5. Modified formulations of the atmospheric dynamics6, convection7, land surface, boundary layer8 and cloud9 schemes have been used. The horizontal resolution is 2.5° x ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/376501a0
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    A search for human influences on the thermal structure of the atmosphere (1996)
    [s.l.] : Nature Publishing Group
    Nature 382 (1996), S. 39-46 
    Details
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] The observed spatial patterns of temperature change in the free atmosphere from 1963 to 1987 are similar to those predicted by state-of-the-art climate models incorporating various combinations of changes in carbon dioxide, anthropogenic sulphate aerosol and stratospheric ozone ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/382039a0
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The second Hadley Centre coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM: model description, spinup and validation (1997)
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 13 (1997), S. 103-134 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract.  This study describes a new coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM) developed for studies of climate change and results from a hindcast experiment. The model includes various physical and technical improvements relative to an earlier version of the Hadley Centre OAGCM. A coupled spinup process is used to bring the model to equilibrium. Compared to uncoupled spinup methods this is computationally more expensive, but helps to counter climate drift arising from inadequate sampling of short time scale coupled variability when the components are equilibrated separately. Including sea ice advection and enhancing reference surface salinities in high southern latitudes in austral winter to promote bottom water formation during spinup appears to have stabilized the high-latitude drift exhibited in the earlier model’s control run. In the present study, the atmospheric control climate is stable on multi-century time scales with a drift in global average surface air temperature of only +0.016 K/century, despite a small residual drift in the deep ocean. The control climate is an improvement over the earlier model in several respects, notably in its variability on short time scales. Two anomaly runs are presented incorporating estimated forcing changes over the period 1860 to 1990 arising from greenhouse gases alone and from greenhouse gases plus the radiative scattering effect of sulphate aerosols. These allow validation of the model against the instrumental climate record. Inclusion of aerosol forcing gives a significantly better simulation of historical temperature patterns, although comparisons against recent sea ice trends are equivocal. These studies emphasize the potential importance of including additional forcing terms apart from greenhouse gases in climate simulations, and refining estimates of their spatial distribution and magnitude.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s003820050155
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Global and regional variability in a coupled AOGCM (1997)
    Springer
    Climate dynamics 13 (1997), S. 303-323 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-0894
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract.  The variability of near surface temperature on global and regional spatial scales and interannual time scales from a 1000 year control integration of the Hadley Centre coupled model (HADCM2-CTL) are compared with the observational record of surface temperature. The model succeeds in reproducing the observed patterns of natural variability, with high variability over the northern continents and low variability over much of the tropics. The model global mean variability has similar strength to observed global mean variability on time scales less than 20 years. The warming seen in the historical record is outside the range of natural variability as simulated in HADCM2-CTL. The model has El-Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like behaviour with a central Pacific, peak to peak, strength of approximately 3 K. Changes in near surface temperature in the central Pacific are strongly correlated with changes in near surface temperature over most of the tropics, large regions of the extra-tropics and changes in tropical ocean upper 250 m heat content. Tropospheric temperature changes and tropical surface pressure changes are also strongly correlated with changes in the central Pacific surface temperature. Oceanic regions show significant departures from an AR1 or first order Markov behaviour in the Northwest Atlantic, Northwest Pacific and Arctic oceans. The Northwest Atlantic region has large amounts of variability over periods greater than 50 years. This variability is associated with a jump in the strength of North Atlantic meridional stream function. The spectra of the Western European and Continental US land regions are not significantly different from an AR1 process. The flow through the Drake Passage has an interannual standard deviation of approximately 2.5 Sv with significant departures from an AR1 process at time scales greater than 40 years. Winter northern hemispheric 500 hPa geopotential height shows some evidence of multiple regimes but no year to year persistence of these regimes.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s003820050168
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Towards the Construction of Climate Change Scenarios (1999)
    Springer
    Climatic change 41 (1999), S. 547-581 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Climate impacts assessments need regional scenarios of climate change for a wide range of projected emissions. General circulation models (GCMs) are the most promising approach to providing such information, but as yet there is considerable uncertainty in their regional projections and they are still too costly to run for a large number of emission scenarios. Simpler models have been used to estimate global-mean temperature changes under a range of scenarios. In this paper we investigate whether a fixed pattern from a GCM experiment scaled by global-mean temperature changes from a simple model provides an acceptable estimate of the regional climate change over a range of scenarios. Changes estimated using this approximate approach are evaluated by comparing them with results from ensembles of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Five specific emissions scenarios are considered. For increases in greenhouse gases only, the 'error' in annual mean temperature for the cases considered is smaller than the sampling error due to the model's internal variability. The method may break down for scenarios of stabilisation of concentrations, because the patterns change as the model approaches equilibrium. The inclusion of large local perturbations due to sulphate aerosols can lead to significant deviations of the temperature pattern from that obtained using greenhouse gases alone. Combining separate patterns for the responses to greenhouse gases and aerosols may improve the accuracy of approximation. Finally, the accuracy of the scaling approach is more difficult to assess for deriving changes in regional precipitation because many of the regional changes are not statistically significant in the climate change projections considered here. If precipitation changes are only marginally significant in other models, the apparent disagreement between different models may be as much due to sampling error as to genuine differences in model response.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005466909820
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
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