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  • 2000-2004  (128)
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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Lifetime data analysis 6 (2000), S. 187-205 
    ISSN: 1572-9249
    Keywords: Bayesian inference ; causal dependence ; weighted-likelihood approach ; model-testing ; prediction
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics
    Notes: Abstract This paper continuesour earlier analysis of a data set on acute ear infections insmall children, presented in Andreev and Arjas (1998). The maingoal here is to provide a method, based on the use of predictivedistributions, for assessing the possible causal influence whichthe type of day care will have on the incidence of ear infections.A closely related technique is used for the assessment of thenonparametric Bayesian intensity model applied in the paper.Two graphical methods, supported by formal tests, are suggestedfor this purpose.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2018-12-06
    Description: Multiple proxy data reveal that the early to middle Holocene (ca. 8–6 kyr B.P.) was warmer than the preindustrial period in most regions of the Northern Hemisphere. This warming is presumably explained by the higher summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere, owing to changes in the orbital parameters. Subsequent cooling in the late Holocene was accompanied by significant changes in vegetation cover and an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration. The essential question is whether it is possible to explain these changes in a consistent way, accounting for the orbital parameters as the main external forcing for the climate system. We investigate this problem using the computationally efficient model of climate system, CLIMBER‐2, which includes models for oceanic and terrestrial biogeochemistry. We found that changes in climate and vegetation cover in the northern subtropical and circumpolar regions can be attributed to the changes in the orbital forcing. Explanation of the atmospheric CO2 record requires an additional assumption of excessive CaCO3 sedimentation in the ocean. The modeled decrease in the carbonate ion concentration in the deep ocean is similar to that inferred from CaCO3 sediment data [Broecker et al., 1999]. For 8 kyr B.P., the model estimates the terrestrial carbon pool ca. 90 Pg higher than its preindustrial value. Simulated atmospheric δ13C declines during the course of the Holocene, similar to δ13C data from the Taylor Dome ice core [Indermühle et al., 1999]. Amplitude of simulated changes in δ13C is smaller than in the data, while a difference between the model and the data is comparable with the range of data uncertainty.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2015-01-26
    Description: Testate amoebae (Protozoa: Testacea) were studied in the Late Quaternary permafrost deposits in the Siberian Arctic (Bykovsky Peninsula of the Laptev Sea coast, 71°40′ –71°80′ N and 129°–129°30′ E). The Testacea associations studied reflect specific environmental conditions in paleocryosols, which were controlled by the local micro-relief as well as by regional climate conditions. In total, 86 species, varieties, and forms of testate amoebae were found in 38 Pleistocene and Holocene samples. The rhizopods indicate that soil conditions at ca. 53,000 14C years BP were probably rather similar to the modern cold and wet arctic tundra environment. More moisture and warmer soil conditions were relatively favorable for rhizopods ca. 45,300–43,000 14C years BP, but it was significantly drier at about 42,000 14C years BP. Drier and colder environmental conditions were also present about 39,300–35,000 14C years BP. The Late Pleistocene samples, radiocarbon dated to 33,000–12,000 years BP, are characterized by a low species diversity and density indicating that this period may have been extremely cold and dry. This conjecture is also supported by the polymorphism of some species. Hydrophilic Difflugia species (mostly obligate hydrobiotes) are broadly represented in the studied Holocene samples. The species composition and density of rhizopods in the majority of Holocene samples suggest wet and relatively warm conditions. Changes in rhizopod assemblages during the last 53,000 years were not very dramatic, mostly consisting of rare species and changes in the dominant species complexes during the Pleistocene and Holocene. However, these changes were more drastic during the Pleistocene. They were probably at least partly responsible for the disappearance of some rare testacean species such as Argynnia sp.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2015-01-26
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  • 5
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    INSTAAR, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research
    In:  Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 36 (2). pp. 147-155.
    Publication Date: 2015-01-26
    Description: A sediment core recovered in Lake Lyadhej-To at the northwestern edge of the Ural Mountains reflects the complete Holocene environmental history from ∼11,000 cal. yr B.P. Five limnological episodes are identified in the diatom and geochemical records. The initial lake stage, Episode I (∼11,000–10,850 cal. yr B.P.) is characterized by the absence of biogenic production and a high influx of clastic sediments. Episode II (∼10,850–8650 cal. yr B.P.) is characterized by ice-free conditions during summer, highest bioproductivity, strong growth of planktic diatoms and anoxic bottom waters. This period represents the Holocene climatic optimum. Deterioration of climatic conditions commenced in Episode III (∼8650–7000 cal. yr B.P.) as indicated by distinctly lower bioproductivity and longer persistence of winter ice on the lake. During Episode IV (∼7000–2500 cal. yr B.P.), the diatom and pollen records indicate that temperatures were cool and the growing season was short. Finally, in Episode V (∼2500 cal. yr B.P. to present), limnological conditions, indicated by increased organic carbon and diatom deposition, initially suggest improved conditions followed by a return to modern conditions beginning ∼500 cal. yr B.P. The pollen stratigraphy from Lake Lyadhej-To is consistent with other paleoclimatic records from northern Eurasia, confirming rapid postglacial warming, the presence of dense tree forests during the climatic optimum, and finally a gradual southward retreat of the treeline towards its modern location.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2015-01-26
    Description: The results of the first protozoological study in terms of paleoecology of long-term sediments and buried soils formed in the cryolite zone of northeastern Siberia are discussed. The data on testaceans (Protozoa: Testacea) inhabiting various sites of Bykovsky Peninsula, Laptev Sea coast near estuary of Lena, within the last 53 000 years (Late Pleistocene and Holocene) are presented.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2015-01-22
    Description: Pollen data from a Levinson-Lessing Lake sediment core (74°28'N, 98°38'E) and Cape Sabler, Taymyr Lake permafrost sequences (74°33'N, 100°32'E) reveal substantial environmental changes on the northern Taymyr Peninsula during the last c. 32000 14C years. The continuous records confirm that a scarce steppe-like vegetation with Poaceae, Artemisia and Cyperaceae dominated c. 32 000–10300 14C yr BP, while tundra-like vegetation with Oxyria, Ranunculaceae and Caryophyllaceae grew in wetter areas. The coldest interval occurred c. 18000 yr BP. Lateglacial pollen data show several warming events followed by a climate deterioration c. 10500 14C yr BP, which may correspond with the Younger Dryas. The Late Pleistocene/Holocene transition, c. 10300–10000 14C yr BP, is characterized by a change from the herb-dominated vegetation to shrubby tundra with Betula sect. Nanae and Salix. Alnus fruticosa arrived locally c. 9000–8500 14Cyr BP and disappeared c. 4000–3500 14Cyr BP. Communities of Betula sect. Nanae, broadly distributed at c. 10000–3500 14Cyr BP, almost disappeared when vegetation became similar to the modern herb tundra after 3500–3000 14Cyr BP. Quantitative climate reconstructions show Last Glacial Maximum summer temperature about 4°C below the present and Preboreal (c. 10 000 14C yr BP) temperature 2–4°C above the present. Maximum summer temperature occurred between 10 000 and 5500 14C yr BP; later summers were similar to present or slightly warmer.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2015-01-22
    Description: A continuous lacustrine sequence from the western part of Lama Lake (69°32′N, 90°12′E), complemented by a peat sequence from the lake catchment provides the first detailed environmental reconstruction for the Late Glacial and Holocene on the Taymyr Peninsula. Scarce steppe-like communities with Artemisia, Poaceae, and Cyperaceae dominated during the Late Glacial. Tundra-like communities with Betula nana, Dryas, and Salix grew on more mesic sites. There are distinct climatic signals, which may be correlated with the Bølling and Allerød warming and Middle and Younger Dryas cooling. The Late Glacial/Preboreal transition, at about 10,000 14C yr BP, was characterized by changes from predominantly open herb communities to shrub tundra ones. Larch forest might have been established as early as 9700–9600 14C yr BP, whilst shrub alder came to the area ca 9500–9400 14C yr BP, and spruce did not reach area before ca 9200 14C yr BP. Spruce-larch forests with shrub alder and tree birch dominated the vegetation around the Lama Lake from ca 9000 14C yr BP. Dwarf birch communities were also broadly distributed. The role of spruce in the forest gradually decreased after 4500 14C yr BP. The vegetation cover in the Lama Lake area became similar to the modern larch-spruce forest ca 2500 14C yr BP. A pollen-based biome reconstruction supports a quantitative interpretation of the pollen spectra. Climate reconstructions obtained with information-statistical and plan-functional-type methods show very similar trends in reconstructed July temperature since ca 12,300 14C yr BP, while precipitation anomalies are less coherent, especially during the Late Glacial–Holocene transition.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2015-01-22
    Description: Radiocarbon-dated pollen, rhizopod, chironomid and total organic carbon (TOC) records from Nikolay Lake (73°20′N, 124°12′E) and a pollen record from a nearby peat sequence are used for a detailed environmental reconstruction of the Holocene in the Lena Delta area. Shrubby Alnus fruticosa and Betula exilis tundra existed during 10,300–4800 cal. yr BP and gradually disappeared after that time. Climate reconstructions based on the pollen and chironomid records suggest that the climate during ca. 10,300–9200 cal. yr BP was up to 2–3 °C warmer than the present day. Pollen-based reconstructions show that the climate was relatively warm during 9200–6000 cal. yr BP and rather unstable between ca. 5800–3700 cal. yr BP. Both the qualitative interpretation of pollen data and the results of quantitative reconstruction indicate that climate and vegetation became similar to modern-day conditions after ca. 3600 cal. yr BP. The chironomid-based temperature reconstruction suggests a relatively warm period between ca. 2300 and 1400 cal. yr BP, which corresponds to the slightly warmer climate conditions reconstructed from the pollen. Modern chironomid and rhizopod assemblages were established after ca. 1400 cal. yr BP.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2015-01-22
    Description: Palaeoenvironmental records from permafrost sequences complemented by infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) and 230Th/U dates from Bol'shoy Lyakhovsky Island (7320'N, 14130'E) document the environmental history in the region for at least the past 200 ka. Pollen spectra and insect fauna indicate that relatively wet grass-sedge tundra habitats dominated during an interstadial c. 200–170 ka BP. Summers were rather warm and wet, while stable isotopes reflect severe winter conditions. The pollen spectra reflect sparser grass-sedge vegetation during a Taz (Late Saalian) stage, c. 170–130 ka BP, with environmental conditions much more severe compared with the previous interstadial. Open Poaceae and Artemisia plant associations dominated vegetation at the beginning of the Kazantsevo (Eemian) c. 130 ka BP. Some shrubs (Alnus fruticosa, Salix, Betula nana) grew in more protected and wetter places as well. The climate was relatively warm during this time, resulting in the melting of Saalian ice wedges. Later, during the interglacial optimum, shrub tundra with Alnus fruticosa and Betula nana s.l. dominated vegetation. Climate was relatively wet and warm. Quantitative pollen-based climate reconstruction suggests that mean July temperatures were 4–5 C higher than the present during the optimum of the Eemian, while late Eemian records indicate significant climate deterioration.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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