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  • 2000-2004  (13)
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  • 11
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    Greenland climate characteristics in HadCM3 (2003)
    In:  EPIC3XXIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, Symposium on the Role of Atmospheric Processes in Mass Balance Exchange in the Polar Regions (IAMAS, IAHS), Sapporo (Japan)June-11 July 2003., 30
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
    Description: The HadCM3 AOGCM has been coupled to a 3D dynamic model of the Greenland ice sheet, which includes a visco-elastic solid Earth model. Once every year the AOGCM provides the ice sheet model with precipitation and temperature anomalies which it uses in order to calculate ablation, ice dynamics and basal rebound. A new orography and fresh water fluxes are passed back to the OAGCM to be utilised over the subsequent year. The water from the melting of calved Icebergs is applied evenly to the sea region adjacent to Greenland whilst runoff enters the ocean through 'river' outlets. A multiple century experiment starting from the present day ice sheet with an atmospheric CO2 concentration of four times pre-industrial levels is being undertaken to determine the rate of ice ablation and the impact of ice sheet changes on simulated sea level, and oceanic and atmospheric circulation. The effect of orographic changes in the ice sheet on its own mass balance is also of interest. The results from the first 180 years of the simulation indicate that the modelled surface air temperature over Greenland in the 4xCO2 climate is around 8 degrees warmer than in the pre-industrial control, compared with a global mean difference of 5 degrees. Precipitation is increased by 33% in the 4xCO2 experiment but the rate of ablation rises by 640%, causing a direct sea-level rise of 5mm per year. To understand the mechanisms of change we will examine the spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation anomalies for the model control and 4xCO2 experiments and compare them with data from anomalously warm years determined from in situ (ice core) data.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Conference , notRev
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  • 12
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    Threatened loss of the Greenland ice sheet (2004)
    In:  EPIC3Nature, 428(6983), 616 p.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 13
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    Modelling Antarctic and Greenland volume changes during the 20th and 21st centuries forced by GCM time slice integrations (2004)
    In:  EPIC3Global and Planetary Change, 42, pp. 83-105, ISSN: 0921-8181
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
    Description: Current and future volume changes of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets depend on modern mass balance changes and on the ice-dynamic response to the environmental forcing on time scales as far back as the last glacial period. Here we focus on model predictions for the 20th and 21st centuries using 3-D thermomechanical ice sheet/ice shelf models driven by climate scenarios obtained from General Circulation Models. High-resolution anomaly patterns from the ECHAM4 and HadAM3H time slice integrations are scaled with time series from a variety of lower-resolution Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models to obtain the spread of results for the same emission scenario and the same set of ice-sheet model parameters. Particular attention is paid to the technique of pattern scaling and on how GCM based predictions differ from older ice-sheet model results based on more parameterised mass-balance treatments. As a general result, it is found that the effect of increased precipitation on Antarctica dominates over the effect of increased melting on Greenland for the entire range of predictions, so that both polar ice sheets combined would gain mass in the 21st century. The results are very similar for both time-slice patterns driven by the underlying time evolution series with most of the scatter in the results caused by the variability in the lower-resolution AOGCMs. Combining these results with the long-term background trend yields a 20th and 21st century sea-level trend from polar ice sheets that is however not significantly different from zero.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
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