Description: Here we present a new, pan-Atlantic compilation and analysis of data on Calanus finmarchicus abundance, demography, dormancy, egg production and mortality in relation to basin-scale patterns of temperature, phytoplankton biomass, circulation and other environmental characteristics in the context of understanding factors determining the distribution and abundance of C. finmarchicus across its North Atlantic habitat. A number of themes emerge: (1) the south-to-north transport of plankton in the northeast Atlantic contrasts with north-to-south transport in the western North Atlantic, which has implications for understanding population responses of C. finmarchicus to climate forcing, (2) recruitment to the youngest copepodite stages occurs during or just after the phytoplankton bloom in the east whereas it occurs after the bloom at many western sites, with up to 3.5 months difference in recruitment timing, (3) the deep basin and gyre of the southern Norwegian Sea is the centre of production and overwintering of C. finmarchicus, upon which the surrounding waters depend, whereas, in the Labrador/Irminger Seas production mainly occurs along the margins, such that the deep basins serve as collection areas and refugia for the overwintering populations, rather than as centres of production, (4) the western North Atlantic marginal seas have an important role in sustaining high C. finmarchicus abundance on the nearby coastal shelves, (5) differences in mean temperature and chlorophyll concentration between the western and eastern North Atlantic are reflected in regional differences in female body size and egg production, (6) regional differences in functional responses of egg production rate may reflect genetic differences between western and eastern populations, (7) dormancy duration is generally shorter in the deep waters adjacent to the lower latitude western North Atlantic shelves than in the east, (8) there are differences in stage-specific daily mortality rates between eastern and western shelves and basins, but the survival trajectories for cohort development from CI to CV are similar, and (9) early life stage survival is much lower in regions where C. finmarchicus is found with its congeners, C. glacialis and/or C. hyperboreus. This compilation and analysis provides new knowledge for evaluation and parameterisation of population models of C. finmarchicus and their responses to climate change in the North Atlantic. The strengths and weaknesses of modeling approaches, including a statistical approach based on ecological niche theory and a dynamical approach based on knowledge of spatial population dynamics and life history, are discussed, as well as needs for further research.

Description: Generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to test the hypothesis that changes in physical and biological environmental conditions affected by current climatic warming would negatively impact the euphausiid populations in the North Atlantic. Two zooplankton time series were used, one collected by the Marine Research Institute (MRI) on a transect south of Iceland during spring (1990–2011) and the other by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey (1958–2007) in the oceanic waters south of Iceland covering all months. Due to limitations of the sampling gears used, the results mainly reflect the variations of the early stages of euphausiids. On a spatial scale, results reveal a general decline of euphausiid abundance from the east coast of Greenland to the Faroe Islands. On a temporal scale, euphausiid numbers decreased in most CPR areas from 1958 to 2007. Conversely, an increase was observed in numbers of larvae during spring 1990–2011 for the shelf south of Iceland. Single variable-based GAMs indicated that phytoplankton biomass was generally the main environmental factor regulating euphausiid abundance. Multiple variable-based GAMs showed that phytoplankton biomass was the strongest predictor of euphausiid abundance in the west, whereas in the east temperature appears to be most important. In addition, the onset of the spring bloom also affected the long-term changes in euphausiid abundance. For the oceanic areas, it is concluded that a weakened temporal synchrony between the development of young euphausiids and the phytoplankton bloom influenced by recent climate warming may have led to the observed decrease in euphausiid populations.

Description: Chust, G., Castellani, C., Licandro, P., Ibaibarriaga, L., Sagarminaga, Y., and Irigoien, X. 2014. Are Calanus spp. shifting poleward in the North Atlantic? A habitat modelling approach. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 71: 241–253. In the last decade, the analysis based on Continuous Plankton Recorder survey in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean detected one of the most striking examples of marine poleward migration related to sea warming. The main objective of this study is to verify the poleward shift of zooplankton species ( Calanus finmarchicus , C. glacialis , C. helgolandicus , C. hyperboreus ) for which distributional changes have been recorded in the North Atlantic Ocean and to assess how much of this shift was triggered by sea warming, using Generalized Additive Models. To this end, the population gravity centre of observed data was compared with that of a series of simulation experiments: (i) a model using only climate factors (i.e. niche-based model) to simulate species habitat suitability, (ii) a model using only temporal and spatial terms to reconstruct the population distribution, and (iii) a model using both factors combined, using a subset of observations as independent dataset for validation. Our findings show that only C. finmarchicus had a consistent poleward shift, triggered by sea warming, estimated in 8.1 km per decade in the North Atlantic (16.5 per decade for the northeast), which is substantially lower than previous works at the assemblage level and restricted to the Northeast Atlantic. On the contrary, C. helgolandicus is expanding in all directions, although its northern distribution limit in the North Sea has shifted northward. Calanus glacialis and C. hyperboreus , which have the geographic centres of populations mainly in the NW Atlantic, showed a slight southward shift, probably responding to cool water penetrating southward in the Labrador Current. Our approach, supported by high model accuracy, shows its power in detecting species latitudinal shifts and identifying its causes, since the trend of occurrence observed data is influenced by the sampling frequency, which has progressively concentrated to lower latitudes with time.

Description: The phytoplankton colour index (PCI) of the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey is an in situ measure of ocean colour, which is considered a proxy of the phytoplankton biomass. PCI has been extensively used to describe the major spatiotemporal patterns of phytoplankton in the North Atlantic Ocean and North Sea since 1931. Regardless of its wide application, the lack of an adequate evaluation to test the PCI's quantitative nature is an important limitation. To address this concern, a field trial over the main production season has been undertaken to assess the numerical values assigned by previous investigations for each category of the greenness of the PCI. CPRs were towed across the English Channel from Roscoff to Plymouth consecutively for each of 8 months producing 76 standard CPR samples, each representing 10 nautical miles of tow. The results of this experiment test and update the PCI methodology, and confirm the validity of this long-term in situ ocean colour data set. In addition, using a 60-year time series of the PCI of the western English Channel, a comparison is made between the previous and the current revised experimental calculations of PCI.