Description: Highlights: • OGCM simulations of the AMOC are highly sensitive to the subarctic freshwater forcing. • Trends in the simulated AMOC are linked to the salinity of the DSOW. • DSOW salinity trends can be traced back to the freshwater transport by the NAC. • The NAC freshwater budget is highly affected by the salinity restoring used in OGCMs. • Modifications in the subarctic precipitation can help to minimize the restoring flux. Global ocean sea-ice models with an atmospheric forcing based on bulk formulations of the air-sea fluxes exhibit spurious trends in key flow indices like the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), constraining their use in investigations of multi-decadal ocean variability. To identify the critical model factors affecting the temporal evolution of the AMOC on time scales of up to 60 years, a series of experiments with both eddy-permitting (0.25°) and non-eddying (0.5°) ocean-ice models has been performed, focusing on the influence of artificial choices for the freshwater forcing, in particular the restoring of sea surface salinity towards climatological values. The atmospheric forcing builds on the proposal for Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE), utilizing the refined atmospheric reanalysis products for 1948–2006 compiled by Large and Yeager. Sensitivity experiments with small variations in precipitation (within the observational uncertainty) and sea surface salinity restoring in the subarctic Atlantic produce a wide range of AMOC transports, between upward drifts to more than 22 Sv and nearly-collapsed states with less than 7 Sv, reflecting the excessive role of the salinity feedback in such simulations. In all cases the AMOC is tightly related to the density of the Denmark Strait overflow; changes in that density are governed by the salinity in the Nordic Seas; and in turn, that salinity is strongly affected by the properties of the inflowing North Atlantic water.

Description: Highlights: • We combine high-resolution ocean models with population genetics • Variation in wind-driven ocean currents mediates the collapse of A. anguilla • Female eels are philopatric within the Sargasso Sea, while males maintain gene flow • We present first evidence of the role of ocean currents in shaping species’ evolution Summary: Worldwide, exploited marine fish stocks are under threat of collapse [1]. Although the drivers behind such collapses are diverse, it is becoming evident that failure to consider evolutionary processes in fisheries management can have drastic consequences on a species’ long-term viability [2]. The European eel (Anguilla anguilla; Linnaeus, 1758) is no exception: not only does the steep decline in recruitment observed in the 1980s [ 3 and 4] remain largely unexplained, the punctual detection of genetic structure also raises questions regarding the existence of a single panmictic population [ 5, 6 and 7]. With its extended Transatlantic dispersal, pinpointing the role of ocean dynamics is crucial to understand both the population structure and the widespread decline of this species. Hence, we combined dispersal simulations using a half century of high-resolution ocean model data with population genetics tools. We show that regional atmospherically driven ocean current variations in the Sargasso Sea were the major driver of the onset of the sharp decline in eel recruitment in the beginning of the 1980s. The simulations combined with genotyping of natural coastal eel populations furthermore suggest that unexpected evidence of coastal genetic differentiation is consistent with cryptic female philopatric behavior within the Sargasso Sea. Such results demonstrate the key constraint of the variable oceanic environment on the European eel population.

Description: Highlights: • Phase II of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II) is introduced. • Solutions from CORE-II simulations from eighteen participating models are presented. • Mean states in the North Atlantic with a focus on AMOC are examined. • The North Atlantic solutions differ substantially among the models. • Many factors, including parameterization choices, contribute to these differences. Simulation characteristics from eighteen global ocean–sea-ice coupled models are presented with a focus on the mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and other related fields in the North Atlantic. These experiments use inter-annually varying atmospheric forcing data sets for the 60-year period from 1948 to 2007 and are performed as contributions to the second phase of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). The protocol for conducting such CORE-II experiments is summarized. Despite using the same atmospheric forcing, the solutions show significant differences. As most models also differ from available observations, biases in the Labrador Sea region in upper-ocean potential temperature and salinity distributions, mixed layer depths, and sea-ice cover are identified as contributors to differences in AMOC. These differences in the solutions do not suggest an obvious grouping of the models based on their ocean model lineage, their vertical coordinate representations, or surface salinity restoring strengths. Thus, the solution differences among the models are attributed primarily to use of different subgrid scale parameterizations and parameter choices as well as to differences in vertical and horizontal grid resolutions in the ocean models. Use of a wide variety of sea-ice models with diverse snow and sea-ice albedo treatments also contributes to these differences. Based on the diagnostics considered, the majority of the models appear suitable for use in studies involving the North Atlantic, but some models require dedicated development effort.

Description: Highlights: • Global mean sea level simulated in interannual CORE simulations. • Regional sea level patterns simulated in interannual CORE simulations. • Theoretical foundation for analysis of global mean sea level and regional patterns. Abstract: We provide an assessment of sea level simulated in a suite of global ocean-sea ice models using the interannual CORE atmospheric state to determine surface ocean boundary buoyancy and momentum fluxes. These CORE-II simulations are compared amongst themselves as well as to observation-based estimates. We focus on the final 15 years of the simulations (1993–2007), as this is a period where the CORE-II atmospheric state is well sampled, and it allows us to compare sea level related fields to both satellite and in situ analyses. The ensemble mean of the CORE-II simulations broadly agree with various global and regional observation-based analyses during this period, though with the global mean thermosteric sea level rise biased low relative to observation-based analyses. The simulations reveal a positive trend in dynamic sea level in the west Pacific and negative trend in the east, with this trend arising from wind shifts and regional changes in upper 700 m ocean heat content. The models also exhibit a thermosteric sea level rise in the subpolar North Atlantic associated with a transition around 1995/1996 of the North Atlantic Oscillation to its negative phase, and the advection of warm subtropical waters into the subpolar gyre. Sea level trends are predominantly associated with steric trends, with thermosteric effects generally far larger than halosteric effects, except in the Arctic and North Atlantic. There is a general anti-correlation between thermosteric and halosteric effects for much of the World Ocean, associated with density compensated changes.

Description: Model drift in the Labrador Sea in eddy permitting model simulations is examined using a series of configurations based on the NEMO numerical framework. There are two phases of the drift that we can identify, beginning with an initial rapid 3-year period, associated with the adjustment of the model from its initial conditions followed by an extended model drift/adjustment that continued for at least another decade. The drift controlled the model salinity in the Labrador Sea, over-riding the variability. Thus, during this initial period, similar behavior was observed between the inter-annually forced experiments as with perpetual year forcing. The results also did not depend on whether the configuration was global, or regional North Atlantic Ocean. The inclusion of an explicit sea-ice component did not seem to have a significant impact on the interior drift. Clear cut evidence for the drift having an advective nature was shown, based on two separate currents/flow regimes. We find, as expected, the representation of freshwater in the sub-polar gyre’s boundary currents important. But this study also points out another, equally important process and pathway: the input of high salinity mode water from the subtropical North Atlantic. The advective regime is dependent on the details of the model, such as the representation of the freshwater transport in the model’s East Greenland Current being very sensitive to the strength of the local sea surface salinity restoring (and the underlying field that the model is being restored to).

Description: On interannual to decadal times scales, model simulations suggest a strong relationship between anomalies in the deep water formation rate, the strength of the subpolar gyre, and the meridional overturning circulation in the North Atlantic. Whether this is valid, can only be confirmed by continuous, long observational time series. Several measurement components are already in place, but crucial arrays to obtain time series of the meridional volume and heat transport in the subpolar North Atlantic are still missing. Here we summarize the recent developments of the deep water formation rates and the subpolar gyre transports. We discuss how existing observational components in the subpolar North Atlantic could be supplemented to provide long-term monitoring of the meridional heat and volume transport. Through a combined analysis of observations and model results the temporal and spatial scales that had to be covered with instruments are discussed, together with the key regions with the highest variability in the velocity and temperature fields.

Description: A suite of high-resolution models of the Atlantic Ocean circulation is used to study the deep seasonal current variability in the equatorial regime, with a particular emphasis on its manifestation in the variability of the interhemispheric transports near the western boundary. The basic experiment has a resolution of 1/3∘1/3∘ horizontally and 45 vertical levels, and is subject to a monthly mean atmospheric forcing based on ECMWF flux fields. Sensitivity experiments explore the effects of higher horizontal resolution (1/12∘1/12∘), and alternative mixing parameterizations. The model behavior near the equator confirms previous suggestions based on solutions of the WOCE Community Modelling Effort (“CME”) and the “DYNAMO” model intercomparison project, of the presence of a system of vigorous seasonal current oscillations, spanning the whole water column and nearly the whole zonal extent of the basin. The patterns of the primarily zonal current anomalies are fairly robust across the range of model cases investigated, i.e., show relatively little sensitivity to horizontal resolution/mixing, or to the different choices of vertical discretization and vertical mixing as in the DYNAMO cases. The amplitude of the seasonal variation exceeds 10 cm/s in the surface layer, and decreases to about 5 cm/s near 1000 m and 2–3 cm/s in the deep ocean in both the basic 1/3∘1/3∘- and the 1/12∘1/12∘-cases, thereby leading to seasonally reversing current signatures at all depths below the EUC. A particular aspect of the seasonal current variability concerns its manifestation in the southward transport of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) by the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC). The temporal characteristics of the DWBC variability are in agreement with moored current meter observations at 44∘W44∘W, with simulated DWBC transports varying between a maximum of more than 30 Sv in January/February, and almost vanishing transport in September. However, in contrast to the annual-mean deep water transport which is confined to the DWBC and tight, O(100) km-recirculation cells, the seasonal cycle of transport is not trapped near the boundary: the simulations show that the zonal current variations of the equatorial wave guide, near the western boundary give rise to a broad system of seasonal recirculation cells of the DWBC. Calculations of the amplitude of the seasonal variability in the deep water transport near the equator are therefore strongly dependent of the spatial extent of the cross-section considered; in particular, for being approximately representative of low-frequency variations in the net, zonally-integrated meridional transport of deep water in the equatorial regime, transport sections would need to extend over nearly the whole western basin.

Description: The upper ocean large-scale circulation of the western tropical Atlantic from 11.5°S to the Caribbean in November and December 2000 is investigated from a new type of shipboard ADCP able to measure accurate velocities to 600 m depth, combined with lowered ADCP measurements. Satellite data and numerical model output complement the shipboard measurements to better describe the large-scale circulation. In November 2000 the North Brazil Undercurrent (NBUC) was strongly intensified between 11 and 5°S by inflow from the east, hence the NBUC was formed further to the north than in the mean. The NBUC was transporting 23.1 Sv northward at 5°S, slightly less than the mean of six cruises (Geophysical Research Letters (2002) 29 (7) 1840). At 35°W the North Brazil Current (NBC) transported 29.4 Sv westward, less than the mean of 13 cruises (Geophysical Research Letters (2003) 30 (7) 1349). A strong retroflection ring had just pinched off the NBC retroflection according to the satellite information. The inflow into the Caribbean south of 16.5°N originated in part of a leakage from the NBC retroflection zone and in part from the North Equatorial Current. A thermocline intensified ring with a transport of about 30 Sv was located off Guadeloupe carrying South Atlantic Central Water towards the north. Observed deviations of the November/December 2000 flow field from the November long-term mean flow field were related to an enhanced Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) associated with an increased North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC), as well as to boundary current rings and Rossby waves with zonal wavelength of the order of 1000 km. At 44°W the presence of a Rossby wave associated with an anticyclonic circulation led to a strongly enhanced NBC of 65.0 Sv as well as to a combined NECC and Equatorial Undercurrent transport of 52.4 Sv, much stronger than during earlier cruises. While the 1/3°-FLAME model is unable to reproduce details of the vertical distribution of the observed horizontal flow at 44 °W for November 2000 as well as the horizontal distribution of some of the observed permanent current bands, a climatological simulation with the 1/12°-FLAME agrees much better with the observations and provides information on the spreading path between the sections. E.g., the interpretation that the widening in the Antarctic Intermediate Water layer of the westward flowing NBC at 44°W in November was caused by water from the Equatorial Intermediate Current was further supported by the model results

Description: Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (COREs) are presented as a tool to explore the behaviour of global ocean-ice models under forcing from a common atmospheric dataset. We highlight issues arising when designing coupled global ocean and sea ice experiments, such as difficulties formulating a consistent forcing methodology and experimental protocol. Particular focus is given to the hydrological forcing, the details of which are key to realizing simulations with stable meridional overturning circulations. The atmospheric forcing from [Large, W., Yeager, S., 2004. Diurnal to decadal global forcing for ocean and sea-ice models: the data sets and flux climatologies. NCAR Technical Note: NCAR/TN-460+STR. CGD Division of the National Center for Atmospheric Research] was developed for coupled-ocean and sea ice models. We found it to be suitable for our purposes, even though its evaluation originally focussed more on the ocean than on the sea-ice. Simulations with this atmospheric forcing are presented from seven global ocean-ice models using the CORE-I design (repeating annual cycle of atmospheric forcing for 500 years). These simulations test the hypothesis that global ocean-ice models run under the same atmospheric state produce qualitatively similar simulations. The validity of this hypothesis is shown to depend on the chosen diagnostic. The CORE simulations provide feedback to the fidelity of the atmospheric forcing and model configuration, with identification of biases promoting avenues for forcing dataset and/or model development.

Description: For the past 50 years it has been assumed that the principal pathway for the deep limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC). However, recent observations of Lagrangian floats have shown that the DWBC is not necessarily a unique, dominant, or continuous pathway for these deep waters. A significant portion of the deep water export from the subpolar to the subtropical gyres follows a pathway through the interior of the Newfoundland and subtropical basins, which is constrained by the western boundary and the western flank of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The hypothesis that deep eddy-driven recirculation gyres are a mechanism for partitioning the deep limb of the AMOC into the DWBC and this interior pathway is investigated here. Eulerian and Lagrangian analyses of the output of ocean general circulation models at eddy-resolving, eddy-permitting, and non-eddy permitting resolutions are used to test this hypothesis. Eddy-driven recirculation gyres, simulated in the eddy-resolving and eddy-permitting models and similar to recirculations inferred from hydrographic data, are shown to shape the export pathways of deep water from the subpolar to the subtropical gyres.