Description: Productivity of marine fish stocks is known to be affected by environmental and ecological drivers, and global climate change is anticipated to alter recruitment success of many stocks. While the direct effects of environmental drivers on fish early life stage survival can be quantified experimentally, indirect effects in marine ecosystems and the role of adaptation are still highly uncertain. We developed an integrative model for the effects of ocean warming and acidification on the early life stages of Atlantic cod in the Barents Sea, termed SCREI (Simulator of Cod Recruitment under Environmental Influences). Experimental results on temperature and CO2 effects on egg fertilization, egg and larval survival and development times are incorporated. Calibration using empirical time series of egg production, temperature, food and predator abundance reproduces age-0 recruitment over three decades. We project trajectories of recruitment success under different scenarios and quantify confidence limits based on variation in experiments. A publicly accessible web version of the SCREI model can be run under www.oceanchange.uni-bremen.de/;SCREI. Severe reductions in average age-0 recruitment success of Barents Sea cod are projected under uncompensated warming and acidification toward the middle to end of this century. Although high population stochasticity was found, considerable rates of evolutionary adaptation to acidification and shifts in organismal thermal windows would be needed to buffer impacts on recruitment. While increases in food availability may mitigate short-term impacts, an increase in egg production achieved by stock management could provide more long-term safety for cod recruitment success. The SCREI model provides a novel integration of multiple driver effects in different life stages and enables an estimation of uncertainty associated with interindividual and ecological variation. The model thus helps to advance toward an improved empirical foundation for quantifying climate change impacts on marine fish recruitment, relevant for ecosystem-based assessments of marine systems under climate change.

Description: Ocean acidification—the decrease in seawater pH due to rising CO2 concentrations—has been shown to lower survival in early life stages of fish and, as a consequence, the recruitment of populations including commercially important species. To date, ocean-acidification studies with fish larvae have focused on the direct physiological impacts of elevated CO2, but largely ignored the potential effects of ocean acidification on food web interactions. In an in situ mesocosm study on Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) larvae as top predators in a pelagic food web, we account for indirect CO2 effects on larval survival mediated by changes in food availability. The community was exposed to projected end-of-the-century CO2 conditions (~760 µatm pCO2) over a period of 113 days. In contrast with laboratory studies that reported a decrease in fish survival, the survival of the herring larvae in situ was significantly enhanced by 19 ± 2%. Analysis of the plankton community dynamics suggested that the herring larvae benefitted from a CO2-stimulated increase in primary production. Such indirect effects may counteract the possible direct negative effects of ocean acidification on the survival of fish early life stages. These findings emphasize the need to assess the food web effects of ocean acidification on fish larvae before we can predict even the sign of change in fish recruitment in a high-CO2 ocean.

Description: Ocean acidification (OA), the dissolution of excess anthropogenic carbon dioxide in ocean waters, is a potential stressor to many marine fish species. Whether species have the potential to acclimate and adapt to changes in the seawater carbonate chemistry is still largely unanswered. Simulation experiments across several generations are challenging for large commercially exploited species because of their long generation times. For Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), we present first data on the effects of parental acclimation to elevated aquatic CO2 on larval survival, a fundamental parameter determining population recruitment. The parental generation in this study was exposed to either ambient or elevated aquatic CO2 levels simulating end-of-century OA levels (~1100 µatm CO2) for six weeks prior to spawning. Upon fully reciprocal exposure of the F1 generation, we quantified larval survival, combined with two larval feeding regimes in order to investigate the potential effect of energy limitation. We found a significant reduction in larval survival at elevated CO2 that was partly compensated by parental acclimation to the same CO2 exposure. Such compensation was only observed in the treatment with high food availability. This complex 3-way interaction indicates that surplus metabolic resources need to be available to allow a transgenerational alleviation response to ocean acidification.

Description: In the coming decades, environmental change like warming and acidification will affect life in the ocean. While data on single stressor effects on fish are accumulating rapidly, we still know relatively little about interactive effects of multiple drivers. Of particular concern in this context are the early life stages of fish, for which direct effects of increased CO2 on growth and development have been observed. Whether these effects are further modified by elevated temperature was investigated here for the larvae of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus), a commercially important fish species. Over a period of 32 days, larval survival, growth in size and weight, and instantaneous growth rate were assessed in a crossed experimental design of two temperatures (10°C and 12°C) with two CO2 levels (400 μatm and 900 μatm CO2) at food levels mimicking natural levels using natural prey. Elevated temperature alone led to increased swimming activity, as well as decreased survival and instantaneous growth rate (Gi). The comparatively high sensitivity to elevated temperature in this study may have been influenced by low food levels offered to the larvae. Larval size, Gi and swimming activity were not affected by CO2, indicating tolerance of this species to projected "end of the century" CO2 levels. A synergistic effect of elevated temperature and CO2 was found for larval weight, where no effect of elevated CO2 concentrations was detected in the 12°C treatment, but a negative CO2 effect was found in the 10°C treatment. Contrasting CO2 effects were found for survival between the two temperatures. Under ambient CO2 conditions survival was increased at 12°C compared to 10°C. In general, CO2 effects were minor and considered negligible compared to the effect of temperature under these mimicked natural food conditions. These findings emphasize the need to include biotic factors such as energy supply via prey availability in future studies on interactive effects of multiple stressors. © 2018 Sswat et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Description: Throughout the twentieth and the beginning of the twenty-first century technical advancements in many industries as well as the vast increase in world population have led to increasing emissions of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide. The changes in the chemistry of the atmosphere not only result in retention of heat causing global warming, but also transfer to the oceans. The world’s oceans are not only warming, but are furthermore acidifying through the reaction of seawater with carbon dioxide, measured in pH and termed ocean acidification. The aim of this thesis was to provide greater understanding of the impact of ocean acidification on one of the most important commercial species, the Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and to provide a quantitative foundation to evaluate recruitment processes of this species. This thesis has quantified the effect of ocean acidification on larval survival of two Atlantic cod stocks from the Western Baltic Sea and the Barents Sea and how this translates into the recruitment of these populations. Additionally, the effect of acidification and its interaction with food availability on larval growth was quantified for the Barents Sea cod. In order to investigate the potential for adaptation or acclimation, it was furthermore explored whether the acclimation of the parental generation to acidification had a significant effect on larval survival and organ development. The results of this dissertation demonstrate that ocean acidification may pose a severe threat to Atlantic cod populations. Nonetheless, the exact effects are very complex and rely on other factors, like the exposure of the parental generation to acidification and on food availability to the larvae.

Description: Human-induced climate change such as ocean warming and acidification, threatens marine ecosystems and associated fisheries. In the Western Baltic cod stock socio-ecological links are particularly important, with many relying on cod for their livelihoods. A series of recent experiments revealed that cod populations are negatively affected by climate change, but an ecological-economic assessment of the combined effects, and advice on optimal adaptive management are still missing. For Western Baltic cod, the increase in larval mortality due to ocean acidification has experimentally been quantified. Time-series analysis allows calculating the temperature effect on recruitment. Here, we include both processes in a stock-recruitment relationship, which is part of an ecological-economic optimization model. The goal was to quantify the effects of climate change on the triple bottom line (ecological, economic, social) of the Western Baltic cod fishery. Ocean warming has an overall negative effect on cod recruitment in the Baltic. Optimal management would react by lowering fishing mortality with increasing temperature, to create a buffer against climate change impacts. The negative effects cannot be fully compensated, but even at 3 °C warming above the 2014 level, a reduced but viable fishery would be possible. However, when accounting for combined effects of ocean warming and acidification, even optimal fisheries management cannot adapt to changes beyond a warming of +1.5° above the current level. Our results highlight the need for multi-factorial climate change research, in order to provide the best available, most realistic, and precautionary advice for conservation of exploited species as well as their connected socio-economic systems.

Description: In order to understand the effect of global change on marine fishes, it is imperative to quantify the effects on fundamental parameters such as survival and growth. Larval survival and recruitment of the Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) were found to be heavily impaired by end-of-century levels of ocean acidification. Here, we analysed larval growth among 35–36 days old surviving larvae, along with organ development and ossification of the skeleton. We combined CO2treatments (ambient: 503 µatm, elevated: 1,179 µatm) with food availability in order to evaluate the effect of energy limitation in addition to the ocean acidification stressor. As expected, larval size (as a proxy for growth) and skeletogenesis were positively affected by high food availability. We found significant interactions between acidification and food availability. Larvae fed ad libitum showed little difference in growth and skeletogenesis due to the CO2 treatment. Larvae under energy limitation were significantly larger and had further developed skeletal structures in the elevated CO2 treatment compared to the ambient CO2 treatment. However, the elevated CO2 group revealed impairments in critically important organs, such as the liver, and had comparatively smaller functional gills indicating a mismatch between size and function. It is therefore likely that individual larvae that had survived acidification treatments will suffer from impairments later during ontogeny. Our study highlights important allocation trade-off between growth and organ development, which is critically important to interpret acidification effects on early life stages of fish.

Description: Ocean acidification (OA), a direct consequence of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration dissolving in ocean waters, is impacting many fish species. Little is known about the molecular mechanisms underlying the observed physiological impacts in fish. We used RNAseq to characterize the transcriptome of 3 different larval stages of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) exposed to simulated OA at levels (1179 µatm CO2) representing end-of-century predictions compared to controls (503 µatm CO2), which were shown to induce tissue damage and elevated mortality in G. morhua. Only few genes were differentially expressed in 6 and 13 days-post-hatching (dph) (3 and 16 genes, respectively), during a period when maximal mortality as a response to elevated pCO2 occurred. At 36 dph, 1413 genes were differentially expressed, most likely caused by developmental asynchrony between the treatment groups, with individuals under OA growing faster. A target gene analysis revealed only few genes of the universal and well-defined cellular stress response to be differentially expressed. We thus suggest that predicted ocean acidification levels constitute a “stealth stress” for early Atlantic cod larvae, with a rapid breakdown of cellular homeostasis leading to organismal death that was missed even with an 8-fold replication implemented in this study.