Description: Space geodetic studies of both present-day surface mass trend (PDMT) and GIA are significantly hindered by the duality of signatures in various data. Current GIA models are largely built on global forward modeling approaches conducted in the 1990s with subsequent piecemeal improvements often without knowing PDMT. With a general lack of uncertainty assessments, they are not accurate enough to match modern space geodesy precisions, and contain possible ambiguities and large errors. We carry out a joint dynamic inversion of multiple data sets of different space geodetic techniques and historical relative sea level records to solve for PDMT, ice history and Earth rheology simultaneously. The dynamic GIA forward modeling is based on gravitationally and topographically self-consistent sea-level equation solver SELEN 4.0. The deglaciation process features 759 global equal-area, icosahedron-shaped, spherical ice pixels with an approximate radius of 1.34 degrees, 13 2-kyr Heaviside steps, and a 4-layer Earth model. Loose a priori PDMT and GIA models are used based on our earlier kinematic inversions and ICE-6G/VM5A respectively. An innovative finite difference method is developed to overcome the enormous computational cost of evaluating partial derivatives with respect to ice thickness and Earth rheology parameters in the context of solving integral equations. Our results confirm many PDMT and GIA signatures estimated in previous kinematic inversions. But two disjoint minimums of equal size with distinct lower mantle viscosities are seen to both satisfy the data combination. Significant coherent ice history deviations from ICE-6G are also found.

Description: We present a method to measure geocenter motion in the terrestrial reference frame (TRF) defined by a global GPS orbit and clock product. Access to the geocenter is provided through precise orbit determination (POD) of Low Earth Orbiters (LEO) using onboard GPS tracking data. In our method, the geocenter location parameters are explicitly expressed in the observation equations for the LEO tracking data, while the GPS orbital position and clock parameters are held fixed to the product produced by the IGS Analysis Center at JPL. The geocenter location parameters are estimated on a daily basis and the resulting time series describes the motion of the Earth’s instantaneous center of mass sensed by the LEO satellites orbital motion in IGb14 frame defined by the GPS orbit and clock product. The key to the success of this method is the precise modeling of the perturbing forces on the LEOs. When good quality accelerometer measurements are available, such as for GRACE and GRACE-Follow-On missions, the estimated geocenter motion is robust. When the accelerometer measurements are not available, results from multiple LEOs in different orbital planes can be combined to average down the non-common part of systematic errors such as drag and solar radiation pressure force model errors. We present 19 years (2004-2022) of continuous geocenter motion measured using this method. Two types of solutions are compared and features observed in the time series are discussed.

Description: Jupiter has the most complex and energetic radiation belts in our Solar System and one of the most challenging space environments to measure and characterize in-depth. Their hazardous environment is also a reason why so many spacecraft avoid flying directly through their most intense regions, thus explaining how Jupiter’s radiation belts have kept many of their secrets so well hidden, despite having been studied for decades. In this paper we argue why these secrets are worth unveiling. Jupiter’s radiation belts and the vast magnetosphere that encloses them constitute an unprecedented physical laboratory, suitable for interdisciplinary and novel scientific investigations: from studying fundamental high energy plasma physics processes which operate throughout the Universe, such as adiabatic charged particle acceleration and nonlinear wave-particle interactions, to exploiting the astrobiological consequences of energetic particle radiation. The in-situ exploration of the uninviting environment of Jupiter’s radiation belts presents us with many challenges in mission design, science planning, instrumentation, and technology. We address these challenges by reviewing the different options that exist for direct and indirect observations of this unique system. We stress the need for new instruments, the value of synergistic Earth and Jupiter-based remote sensing and in-situ investigations, and the vital importance of multi-spacecraft in-situ measurements. While simultaneous, multi-point in-situ observations have long become the standard for exploring electromagnetic interactions in the inner Solar System, they have never taken place at Jupiter or any strongly magnetized planet besides Earth. We conclude that a dedicated multi-spacecraft mission to Jupiter is an essential and obvious way forward for exploring the planet’s radiation belts. Besides guaranteeing numerous discoveries and huge leaps in our understanding of radiation belt systems, such a mission would also enable us to view Jupiter, its extended magnetosphere, moons, and rings under new light, with great benefits for space, planetary, and astrophysical sciences. For all these reasons, in-situ investigations of Jupiter’s radiation belts deserve to be given a high priority in the future exploration of our Solar System. This article is based on a White Paper submitted in response to the European Space Agency’s call for science themes for its Voyage 2050 programme.

Description: Seamless Prediction of weather and climate is a crucial way to promote services and is characterized by multi-time scale forecasting, usually from sub-seasonal to decadal prediction (S2D), which is considered to fill the gaps between weather and climate, near-term and long-term climate prediction. Improving prediction skills for extreme weather and climate disasters will undoubtedly contribute to disaster risk reduction and the sustainable development of the monsoon regions. The latest FGOALS-f2 ensemble prediction system is a seamless prediction established in 2019—four fully coupled components of FGOALS-f2, including atmospheric, oceanic, land, and sea ice modules. The dynamic core of the atmospheric component is FV3, and the critical process of the physical processes in the atmospheric part of FGOALS-f2 is a resolved convection precipitation scheme. FGOALS-f2 prediction system achieved not only 30-year forecasts but also began operational prediction in 2020. Recently, the FGOALS-f2 outputs of the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction have been submitted to WWRP/WCRP S2S Phase 2 Project. The prediction products cover global and regional areas, such as ENSO, MJO, TC, Arctic Sea Ice, Tibet Plateau, and surrounding Asian monsoon regions. Some typical applications of the seamless system in the monsoon region will be introduced.

Description: South Asian monsoon convection plays an important role in the entry of South Asia pollutants to the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (TP) and even to the stratosphere. Based on the TRMM observations and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) index, the ISM is proven to have an important impact on the formation of thunderstorms in the northwestern inland Indian subcontinent, dominated by the water vapor supply. The water vapor transportation originating from the Bay of Bengal has a more significant contribution to thunderstorm formation there than that from the Arabian Sea. Stronger ISM means the southerly meridional wind component over the Bay of Bengal is more dominant, which forces more water vapor to be transported to further inland areas along the Himalayas. Together with the unique huge barrier terrain, thunderstorms in the region are particularly frequent. The lightning density reaches 70fl/km^2/yr which is equivalent to that in tropical Africa. The number of thunderstorms in this area is slightly less than that on the TP but with a larger horizontal scale and stronger convective intensity, which leads to the produced lightning being five times that on the TP. Ultimately, the strong convective vertical transport and a large amount of lightning produced NOx, OH- and other substances, on the one hand, affecting the atmospheric composition in the middle and lower layers of the TP under the influence of the westerly wind, and on the other hand, entering the stratosphere directly by work together with the South Asian High, thus affecting regional and even global climate.

Description: Precipitation whiplash, including abrupt shifts between extremely wet and dry conditions, can bring significant potential impacts on the coupled human and natural system. However, observed and projected changes in sub-seasonal precipitation whiplash occurrences remain not quantified comprehensively, and response of precipitation whiplash to anthropogenic forcings remains unknown. Here we detect and attribute changes in precipitation whiplashes over the historical and RCP8.5 scenario future periods using a series of daily precipitation reanalyses and simulations. Results show that anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions have increased occurrences of precipitation whiplash, despite opposing influences of anthropogenic aerosols (AER) emissions to decreasing occurrences. Anthropogenic GHG emissions will bring ~20% increases in occurrences of precipitation whiplashes (11% increases in occurrences of shifts from dry extremes to wet extremes and 9% increases in occurrences of shifts from wet extremes to dry extremes), given anthropogenic GHG emissions are projected to outpace of anthropogenic AER emissions after the 2020s sharply. Furthermore, changes in precipitation whiplashes are concurrent with changes in precipitation totals and extremes, despite modest spatial variability of individual trends and concurrences. These changes in precipitation regimes will potentially challenge the current water resources management and disaster prevention actions.

Description: The impacts of urbanization on extreme precipitation at multiple temporal scales under a warming climate remains uncertain. Here, using gauge-based observations and reanalysis data, we evaluate changes to hourly and daily extreme precipitation during 1981-2020 in urbanized Pearl River Delta, China. We find that hourly extreme precipitation in urban areas is more intense and frequent than surrounding rural areas, compared to daily extreme precipitation, which is also supported by the spatial distribution of trends with field significance test. Hourly extreme intensity increased nearly 50% faster than the daily intensity. Larger super-Clausius‐Clapeyron behavior in urban areas is observed in scaling of hourly extreme precipitation with dew-point temperature. Our analysis of atmospheric properties indicates that urban areas provide a more favorable environment for the development of hourly extreme precipitation than for that of the daily one, and that hourly extreme precipitation is more sensitive to urban-induced warming.

Description: Global climate warming is accelerating permafrost degradation. The large amounts of soil organic matter in permafrost-affected soils are prone to increased microbial decomposition in a warming climate. Along with permafrost degradation, changes to the soil microbiome play a crucial role in enhancing our understanding and in predicting the feedback of permafrost carbon. In this article, we review the current state of knowledge of carbon-cycling microbial ecology in permafrost regions. Microbiomes in degrading permafrost exhibit variations across spatial and temporal scales. Among the short-term, rapid degradation scenarios, thermokarst lakes have distinct biogeochemical conditions promoting emission of greenhouse gases. Additionally, extreme climatic events can trigger drastic changes in microbial consortia and activity. Notably, environmental conditions appear to exert a dominant influence on microbial assembly in permafrost ecosystems. Furthermore, as the global climate is closely connected to various permafrost regions, it will be crucial to extend our understanding beyond local scales, for example by conducting comparative and integrative studies between Arctic permafrost and alpine permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau at global and continental scales. These comparative studies will enhance our understanding of microbial functioning in degrading permafrost ecosystems and help inform effective strategies for managing and mitigating the impacts of climate change on permafrost regions.