Publication Date:
2023-05-04
Description:
〉Hailstorms and climate changeHail is a dangerous phenomenon that regularly causes significant damage and high insured losses around the world. Hailstorms are expected to be affected by climate change, yet the exact nature of these changes remains difficult to quantify and therefore highly uncertain globally. Broadly, a warmer atmosphere would be expected to have higher instability, leading to stronger updrafts that can support larger hailstones; a higher melting-level height, leading to increased melting of smaller hailstones; and reduced overall vertical wind shear, affecting hailstone sizes and storm severity. However, observations and modelling studies worldwide show large geographical variability in these changes and therefore a range of hailstorm responses. Hailstorms, being small-scale and relatively rare, are difficult to observe and to model, meaning there are few long-term datasets suitable for temporal trend analysis, and few projections for future scenarios. There are also gaps in process understanding that complicate efforts to predict changes in hailstorm frequency or severity from changes in other atmospheric variables. In this talk I will present an overview of the current state of knowledge on climate change effects on hailstorms. I will explain how climate change is expected to affect the three factors of instability, microphysical processes, and vertical wind shear. I will review previous results on observed and modelled changes to hailstorms by world region, and explain why uncertainties exist. Finally, I will show recommendations for future study on this important topic.
Language:
English
Type:
info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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