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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Response of the Asian summer Monsoons to a high-latitude thermal forcing: mechanisms and nonlinearities
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2020
    In:  Climate Dynamics Vol. 54, No. 9-10 ( 2020-05), p. 3927-3944
    Details
    In: Climate Dynamics, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 54, No. 9-10 ( 2020-05), p. 3927-3944
    Abstract: This study investigates mechanisms and nonlinearities in the response of the Asian Summer Monsoons (ASM) to high-latitude thermal forcings of different amplitudes. Using a suite of runs carried out with an intermediate-complexity atmospheric general circulation model, we find that the imposed forcings produce a strong precipitation response over the eastern ASM but a rather weak response over the southern ASM. The forcing also causes a precipitation dipole with wet conditions over the eastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) and dry conditions over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and southeast Asia. A moderate increase of precipitation along the southern margin of the TP is also produced. Simulations designed to isolate the causal mechanisms show that thermodynamic interactions involving the tropical surface oceans are far less important than the water-vapour feedback for the transmission of information from the high-latitudes to the ASM. Additionally, we assess the nonlinearity of the ASM precipitation response to the forcing amplitude using a novel application of the empirical orthogonal function method. The response can be decomposed in two overlapping patterns. The first pattern represents a precipitation dipole with wet conditions over the eastern TP and dry conditions over BoB, which linearly increases with forcing amplitude becoming quasi-stationary for large forcing amplitudes (i.e. amplitudes leading to Arctic temperature anomalies larger than 10 °C). The second pattern is associated with increased precipitation over the southeastern TP and is nonlinearly dependent on forcing, being most important for intermediate forcing amplitudes (i.e. amplitudes leading to Arctic temperature anomalies between 5 and 10 °C).
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0930-7575 , 1432-0894
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05210-9
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 382992-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1471747-5
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Ukrainian early (pre‐1850) historical weather observations
    Wiley ; 2021
    In:  Geoscience Data Journal Vol. 8, No. 1 ( 2021-06), p. 55-73
    Details
    In: Geoscience Data Journal, Wiley, Vol. 8, No. 1 ( 2021-06), p. 55-73
    Abstract: In this paper, we describe the results of a climate data rescue (DARE) activity conducted at the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute (Kyiv, Ukraine) in cooperation with the Justus Liebig University Giessen (Giessen, Germany), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Met Office Hadley Centre (Exeter, United Kingdom). The focus of our work is on pre‐1850 sub‐daily meteorological observations conducted on the territory of modern Ukraine. Data from eight stations (stored in special hard copy tables/books, with handwritten records) have been digitized during the DARE process, resulting in 291,103 rescued values in total. More than half of this number (165,980, ~57%) are related to air temperature data, 124,376 data values (~42.7%) concern atmospheric pressure records and 747 values (~0.3%) are precipitation data. Simple quality control of the digitized data has been conducted, including an intercomparison between stations as well as comparison with monthly temperature data previously digitized from other paper sources. The quality control procedures revealed fairly good agreement between rescued time series on the monthly time scale as well as with the monthly data from independent sources. However, several periods for a few stations should be used with caution due to relatively large discrepancies that were found. The rescued digital database can be used for extreme value analysis for the pre‐1850 period in comparison with today's climate, regional climatological studies and will be used for future Reanalysis. In addition, for the first time, we show that subdaily temperature from Kyiv during 'the year without summer' 1816 in Western and Central Europe were not anomalous in this part of Eastern Europe.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2049-6060 , 2049-6060
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/gdj3.v8.1
    DOI: 10.1002/gdj3.108
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2745699-7
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update: A Prediction for 2021–25
    American Meteorological Society ; 2022
    In:  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 103, No. 4 ( 2022-04), p. E1117-E1129
    Details
    In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 103, No. 4 ( 2022-04), p. E1117-E1129
    Abstract: As climate change accelerates, societies and climate-sensitive socioeconomic sectors cannot continue to rely on the past as a guide to possible future climate hazards. Operational decadal predictions offer the potential to inform current adaptation and increase resilience by filling the important gap between seasonal forecasts and climate projections. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has recognized this and in 2017 established the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Predictions (shortened to “Lead Centre” below), which annually provides a large multimodel ensemble of predictions covering the next 5 years. This international collaboration produces a prediction that is more skillful and useful than any single center can achieve. One of the main outputs of the Lead Centre is the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (GADCU), a consensus forecast based on these predictions. This update includes maps showing key variables, discussion on forecast skill, and predictions of climate indices such as the global mean near-surface temperature and Atlantic multidecadal variability. it also estimates the probability of the global mean temperature exceeding 1.5°C above preindustrial levels for at least 1 year in the next 5 years, which helps policy-makers understand how closely the world is approaching this goal of the Paris Agreement. This paper, written by the authors of the GADCU, introduces the GADCU, presents its key outputs, and briefly discusses its role in providing vital climate information for society now and in the future.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0003-0007 , 1520-0477
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0311.1
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2029396-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 419957-1
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Monthly North Atlantic Sea Level Pressure Reconstruction Back to 1750 CE Using Artificial Intelligence Optimization
    American Meteorological Society ; 2022
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 35, No. 11 ( 2022-06), p. 3395-3410
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 35, No. 11 ( 2022-06), p. 3395-3410
    Abstract: Main modes of atmospheric variability exert a significant influence on weather and climate at local and regional scales on all time scales. However, their past changes and variability over the instrumental record are not well constrained due to limited availability of observations, particularly over the oceans. Here we couple a reconstruction method with an evolutionary algorithm to yield a new 1° × 1° optimized reconstruction of monthly North Atlantic sea level pressure since 1750 from a network of meteorological land and ocean observations. Our biologically inspired optimization technique finds an optimal set of weights for the observing network that maximizes the reconstruction skill of sea level pressure fields over the North Atlantic Ocean, bringing significant improvements over poorly sampled oceanic regions, as compared to non-optimized reconstructions. It also reproduces realistic variations of regional climate patterns such as the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and the associated variability of the subtropical North Atlantic high and the subpolar low pressure system, including the unprecedented strengthening of the Azores high in the second half of the twentieth century. We find that differences in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation indices are partially explained by disparities in estimates of its Azores high center. Moreover, our reconstruction also shows that displacements of the summer Azores high center toward the northeast coincided with extremely warm events in western Europe including the anomalous summer of 1783. Overall, our results highlight the importance of improving the characterization of the Azores high for understanding the climate of the Euro-Atlantic sector and the added value of artificial intelligence in this avenue.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0155.1
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0155.s1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Instrumental Meteorological Records before 1850: An Inventory
    American Meteorological Society ; 2020
    In:  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 101, No. 1 ( 2020-01), p. 43-47
    Details
    In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 101, No. 1 ( 2020-01), p. 43-47
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0003-0007 , 1520-0477
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0040.A
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2029396-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 419957-1
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Planning for Compound Hazards during the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Role of Climate Information Systems
    American Meteorological Society ; 2022
    In:  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 103, No. 3 ( 2022-03), p. E704-E709
    Details
    In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 103, No. 3 ( 2022-03), p. E704-E709
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0003-0007 , 1520-0477
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0215.1
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2029396-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 419957-1
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    A Sensitivity Assessment of COSMO-CLM to Different Land Cover Schemes in Convection-Permitting Climate Simulations over Europe
    MDPI AG ; 2021
    In:  Atmosphere Vol. 12, No. 12 ( 2021-11-29), p. 1595-
    Details
    In: Atmosphere, MDPI AG, Vol. 12, No. 12 ( 2021-11-29), p. 1595-
    Abstract: The question of how sensitive the regional and local climates are to different land cover maps and fractions is important, as land cover affects the atmospheric circulation via its influence on heat, moisture, and momentum transfer, as well as the chemical composition of the atmosphere. In this study, we used three independent land cover data sets, GlobCover 2009, GLC2000 and ESACCI-LC, as the lower boundary of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (Consortium for Small Scale Modeling in Climate Mode, v5.0-clm15) to perform convection-permitting regional climate simulations over the large part of Europe covering the years 1999 and 2000 at a 0.0275° horizontal resolution. We studied how the sensitivity of the impacts on regional and local climates is represented by different land cover maps and fractions, especially between warm (summer) and cold (winter) seasons. We show that the simulated regional climate is sensitive to different land cover maps and fractions. The simulated temperature and observational data are generally in good agreement, though with differences between the seasons. In comparison to winter, the summer simulations are more heterogeneous across the study region. The largest deviation is found for the alpine area (−3 to +3 °C), which might be among different reasons due to different classification systems in land cover maps and orographical aspects in the COSMO-CLM model. The leaf area index and plant cover also showed different responses based on various land cover types, especially over the area with high vegetation coverage. While relating the differences of land cover fractions and the COSMO-CLM simulation results (the leaf area index, and plant coverage) respectively, the differences in land cover fractions did not necessarily lead to corresponding bias in the simulation results. We finally provide a comparative analysis of how sensitive the simulation outputs (temperature, leaf area index, plant cover) are related to different land cover maps and fractions. The different regional representations of COSMO-CLM indicate that the soil moisture, atmospheric circulation, evaporative demand, elevation, and snow cover schemes need to be considered in the regional climate simulation with a high horizontal resolution.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2073-4433
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.3390/atmos12121595
    Language: English
    Publisher: MDPI AG
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2605928-9
    SSG: 23
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Eastern Mediterranean summer temperatures since 730 CE from Mt. Smolikas tree-ring densities
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2020
    In:  Climate Dynamics Vol. 54, No. 3-4 ( 2020-02), p. 1367-1382
    Details
    In: Climate Dynamics, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 54, No. 3-4 ( 2020-02), p. 1367-1382
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0930-7575 , 1432-0894
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-05063-x
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 382992-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1471747-5
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Analysis of future changes in meteorological drought patterns in Fulda, Germany
    Wiley ; 2020
    In:  International Journal of Climatology Vol. 40, No. 13 ( 2020-11-15), p. 5515-5526
    Details
    In: International Journal of Climatology, Wiley, Vol. 40, No. 13 ( 2020-11-15), p. 5515-5526
    Abstract: Meteorological droughts have large impacts on society and the environment. A better understanding and quantification of their occurrences can be highly relevant for the development of proper climate change mitigation, adaptation and resilience strategies. Here we examine meteorological droughts from observed data covering the 1971–2000 period for the Fulda catchment in Germany by means of the Standardized Precipitation Index. The joint dependency of drought duration and severity is modelled by a copula function, which relates their univariate distributions in a functional relationship. Recurrence intervals are further calculated as a function of the joint relationship and univariate marginals. Future projections are investigated in which downscaled EURO‐CORDEX Regional Climate Model (RCM) projections for the period 2021–2050 are used together with the three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, in order to analyse and compare future joint patterns of duration and severity of events. We find that drought duration and severity present a clear interdependency supporting the choice of a bivariate model. Results suggest substantial differences in the future joint relationship duration–severity. Depending on the RCM and RCP, drought patterns show different magnitude of changes in the future. The projected changes are different for the different returns periods. RCP8.5 shows more severe events and longer drought durations than RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. The uncertainties of the projected patterns also depend on the RCP and RCM and are larger for higher return periods.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0899-8418 , 1097-0088
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/joc.v40.13
    DOI: 10.1002/joc.6532
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1491204-1
    SSG: 14
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  • 10
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    Online Resource
    Extending the climatological concept of ‘ Detection and Attribution’ to global change ecology in the Anthropocene
    Wiley ; 2020
    In:  Functional Ecology Vol. 34, No. 11 ( 2020-11), p. 2270-2282
    Details
    In: Functional Ecology, Wiley, Vol. 34, No. 11 ( 2020-11), p. 2270-2282
    Abstract: Research into global change ecology is motivated by the need to understand the role of humans in changing biotic systems. Mechanistic understanding of ecological responses requires the separation of different climatic parameters and processes that often operate on diverse spatiotemporal scales. Yet most environmental studies do not distinguish the effects of internal climate variability from those caused by external, natural (e.g. volcanic, solar, orbital) or anthropogenic (e.g. greenhouse gases, ozone, aerosols, land‐use) forcing factors. We suggest extending the climatological concept of ‘Detection and Attribution’ (DA) to unravel abiotic drivers of ecological dynamics in the Anthropocene. We therefore apply DA to quantify the relative roles of natural versus industrial temperature change on elevational shifts in the outbreak epicentres of the larch budmoth (LBM; Zeiraphera diniana or griseana Gn.); the classic example of a cyclic forest defoliating insect. Our case study shows that anthropogenic warming shifts the epicentre of travelling LBM waves upward, which disrupts the intensity of population outbreaks that occurred regularly over the past millennium in the European Alps. Our findings demonstrate the ability of DA to detect ecological responses beyond internal system variability, to attribute them to specific external climate forcing factors and to identify climate‐induced ecological tipping points. In order to implement the climatological concept of ‘Detection and Attribution’ successfully into modern global change ecology, future studies should combine high‐resolution paleoenvironmental reconstructions and state‐of‐the‐art climate model simulations to inform inference‐based ecosystem models. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0269-8463 , 1365-2435
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1111/fec.v34.11
    DOI: 10.1111/1365-2435.13647
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2020307-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 619313-4
    SSG: 12
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