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  • 2020-2024  (3)
  • 2015-2019  (3)
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  • 1
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    Recent changes in north-west Greenland climate documented by NEEM shallow ice core data and simulations, and implications for past-temperature reconstructions (2015)
    COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
    In:  EPIC3The Cryosphere, COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH, 9(4), pp. 1481-1504, ISSN: 1994-0424
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-08-31
    Description: Combined records of snow accumulation rate, δ18O and deuterium excess were produced from several shallow ice cores and snow pits at NEEM (North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling), covering the period from 1724 to 2007. They are used to investigate recent climate variability and characterise the isotope–temperature relationship. We find that NEEM records are only weakly affected by inter-annual changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation. Decadal δ18O and accumulation variability is related to North Atlantic sea surface temperature and is enhanced at the beginning of the 19th century. No long-term trend is observed in the accumulation record. By contrast, NEEM δ18O shows multidecadal increasing trends in the late 19th century and since the 1980s. The strongest annual positive δ18O values are recorded at NEEM in 1928 and 2010, while maximum accumulation occurs in 1933. The last decade is the most enriched in δ18O (warmest), while the 11-year periods with the strongest depletion (coldest) are depicted at NEEM in 1815–1825 and 1836–1846, which are also the driest 11-year periods. The NEEM accumulation and δ18O records are strongly correlated with outputs from atmospheric models, nudged to atmospheric reanalyses. Best performance is observed for ERA reanalyses. Gridded temperature reconstructions, instrumental data and model outputs at NEEM are used to estimate the multidecadal accumulation–temperature and δ18O–temperature relationships for the strong warming period in 1979–2007. The accumulation sensitivity to temperature is estimated at 11 ± 2 % °C−1 and the δ18O–temperature slope at 1.1 ± 0.2 ‰ °C−1, about twice as large as previously used to estimate last interglacial temperature change from the bottom part of the NEEM deep ice core.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
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    PAPER (OA)
  • 2
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    Variability in the northern North Atlantic and Arctic oceans across the last two millennia: A review (2019)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 34 (8). pp. 1399-1436.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-01-31
    Description: The climate of the last two millennia was characterised by decadal to multi‐centennial variations which were recorded in terrestrial records and had important societal impacts. The cause of these climatic events is still under debate but changes in the North Atlantic circulation have often been proposed to play an important role. In this review we compile available high‐resolution paleoceanographic datasets from the northern North Atlantic and Nordic Seas. The records are grouped into regions related to modern ocean conditions and their variability is discussed. We additionally discuss our current knowledge from modelling studies, with a specific focus on the dynamical changes that are not well inferred from the proxy records. An illustration is provided through the analysis of two climate model ensembles and an individual simulation of the last millennium. This review thereby provides an up‐to‐date paleo‐perspective on the North Atlantic multidecadal to multi‐centennial ocean variability across the last two millennia.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1029/2018PA003508
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 3
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    Socio-economic environment, area facilities and obesity and physical inactivity among children (2016)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-03-24
    Description: Background: To evaluate whether the relationship between socio-economic environment and obesity and physical inactivity in children can be explained by household socio-economic position and area facilities. Methods : Two indicators of the socio-economic context of neighbourhood of residence based on wealth and deprivation were estimated in a sample of 727 children and adolescents residents in Madrid (Spain). Multilevel logit models were used to calculate the relationship between each indicator and obesity and physical inactivity. Results : After adjusting for household socio-economic position, obesity prevalence was 3.79 times higher among subjects living in deprived areas than among those living in non-deprived areas (CI: 1.95–7.34), and 2.38 higher among subjects living in less wealthy areas than in those living in wealthier areas (CI: 0.85–6.65). Adjustment for the availability of retail shops in subjects’ neighbourhood of residence failed to change the magnitude of the association. Neither neighbourhood socio-economic context nor availability of sports facilities was related to physical inactivity. Conclusion : In the city of Madrid, socio-economic context of neighbourhood of residence shows an inverse relationship with obesity but not with physical inactivity among children. The relationship observed with obesity is not explained by the availability of area facilities.
    Print ISSN: 1101-1262
    Electronic ISSN: 1464-360X
    Topics: Medicine
    Published by Oxford University Press
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    PAPER CURRENT
  • 4
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    Constraining variability in large ensembles of climate model simulations to provide skillful predictions and attribute predictability on multi-decadal timescales (2023)
    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-08-09
    Description: Projections of near-term climate are strongly affected by the uncertainties related to internal climate variability. Here we present a novel approach to constrain variability in large ensembles of climate model simulations by phasing in variability between the model simulations and observed climate. Different approaches can be considered to implement the constraint; that focuses primarily on the phasing of climate variability or include also signatures related to the forced climate response. The constraint selects members primarily based on phasing of variability or those with (additionally) ‘more correct’ signature of a sea surface temperature (SST) warming trend (or at least more similar to observations). The constrained ensembles show significant added value over the unconstrained ensemble in predicting surface air temperature over a 20 year period after initialization. The overall skill of the constrained ensemble over the first ten forecast years is qualitatively similar to that of the initialized decadal predictions; however, the constrained ensemble provides skillful predictions over larger regions of the globe compared to the decadal predictions. In addition, the forecast times for the constrained ensemble can be as long as the projection simulations are available. We also demonstrate the applicability of the constraint in attributing the predictability of regional and global climate variations to SST variability in different ocean regions. Furthermore, based on different approaches, as mentioned above, the constrained ensemble can be used to quantify (and attribute) the portion of predictability related to global patterns of variability alone, and variability together with the warming trend.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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  • 5
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    Impact of ocean mesoscale processes on the mean state and variability of the subpolar North Atlantic (2023)
    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-06-16
    Description: Eddy-resolving ocean models allow for a better representation of mesoscale structures in the ocean. In this study we present a multi-model assessment of the subpolar North Atlantic, including historical simulations from a first generation of coupled eddy-resolving climate models. Four eddy-resolving models (with nominal horizontal resolutions of ~ 10 km in the ocean) have been considered: EC-Earth3P-VHR, MPI-ESM1-2_ER, CESM1-CAM5-SE-HR, and HadGEM3-GC31-HH. Their historical simulations follow the protocol of the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP), and have been compared with 39 historical simulations of non-eddy-resolving climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), to thus determine whether resolving the ocean mesoscale makes a difference in the representation of the subpolar North Atlantic. In particular, we explore whether eddy-resolving models are better than the standard CMIP6 models at reproducing observed properties and variability in the subpolar North Atlantic, from the representation of mean state temperature and salinity biases, to the stratification and mixing in the regions of deep water formation, the position, strength and meridional transitions of the Gulf Stream current, and the mean state and variability of the Subpolar Gyre circulation and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. This model validation will help us to detect potential lingering biases in both HighResMIP and CMIP6 models, and uncover new processes and mechanisms resolved in the eddy-rich models that might have remained masked in eddy-parameterized models.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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  • 6
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    Impact of model resolution on the representation of deep water formation and its link with the AMOC (2023)
    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-08-31
    Description: Recent supercomputing power improvements enable us to explore climate variability and change with coupled models that resolve the ocean mesoscale, its fine-scale interactions and feedbacks. Although these processes are usually parametrised in standard resolutions, several studies have already shown that effectively resolving them leads to reduced model biases in the ocean and improved air-sea interactions. In this study, we have used control simulations with the global climate model EC-Earth3P following the HighResMIP protocol to investigate the role of fine-scale processes in large-scale ocean circulation in the Atlantic. In particular, we have worked with three configurations of the model: eddy-parameterised (~100 km nominal horizontal resolution in mid-latitudes), eddy-permitting (~25 km) and eddy-resolving oceans (~10 km). For each model configuration, we have studied the two leading modes of variability of the mixed-layer depth in the subpolar North Atlantic. We have explored their drivers and preconditioners (which include the background stratification, the local buoyancy forcing from the atmosphere, and the advection of salinity and temperature anomalies by the mean circulation). We have also investigated whether and how they eventually impact the variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) through their influence on the southward propagation of density anomalies along the western boundary current.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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