Description: We introduce the coupled model of the Green- land glacial system IGLOO 1.0, including the polythermal ice sheet model SICOPOLIS (version 3.3) with hybrid dy- namics, the model of basal hydrology HYDRO and a param- eterization of submarine melt for marine-terminated outlet glaciers. The aim of this glacial system model is to gain a better understanding of the processes important for the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level rise under future climate change scenarios. The ice sheet is initialized via a relaxation towards observed surface elevation, impos- ing the palaeo-surface temperature over the last glacial cycle. As a present-day reference, we use the 1961–1990 standard climatology derived from simulations of the regional atmo- sphere model MAR with ERA reanalysis boundary condi- tions. For the palaeo-part of the spin-up, we add the temper- ature anomaly derived from the GRIP ice core to the years 1961–1990 average surface temperature field. For our pro- jections, we apply surface temperature and surface mass bal- ance anomalies derived from RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenar- ios created by MAR with boundary conditions from simula- tions with three CMIP5 models. The hybrid ice sheet model is fully coupled with the model of basal hydrology. With this model and the MAR scenarios, we perform simulations to estimate the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea level rise until the end of the 21st and 23rd centuries. Fur- ther on, the impact of elevation–surface mass balance feed- back, introduced via the MAR data, on future sea level rise is inspected. In our projections, we found the Greenland ice sheet to contribute between 1.9 and 13.0 cm to global sea level rise until the year 2100 and between 3.5 and 76.4 cm until the year 2300, including our simulated additional sea level rise due to elevation–surface mass balance feedback. Translated into additional sea level rise, the strength of this feedback in the year 2100 varies from 0.4 to 1.7 cm, and in the year 2300 it ranges from 1.7 to 21.8 cm. Additionally, taking the Helheim and Store glaciers as examples, we inves- tigate the role of ocean warming and surface runoff change for the melting of outlet glaciers. It shows that ocean temper- ature and subglacial discharge are about equally important for the melting of the examined outlet glaciers.

Description: Subglacial hydrology plays a key role in many glaciological processes, including ice dynamics via the modulation of basal sliding. Owing to the lack of an overarching theory, however, a variety of model approximations exist to represent the subglacial drainage system. The Subglacial Hydrology Model Intercomparison Project (SHMIP) provides a set of synthetic experiments to compare existing and future models. We present the results from 13 participating models with a focus on effective pressure and discharge. For many applications (e.g. steady states and annual variations, low input scenarios) a simple model, such as an inefficient-system-only model, a flowline or lumped model, or a porous-layer model provides results comparable to those of more complex models. However, when studying short term (e.g. diurnal) variations of the water pressure, the use of a two-dimensional model incorporating physical representations of both efficient and inefficient drainage systems yields results that are significantly different from those of simpler models and should be preferentially applied. The results also emphasise the role of water storage in the response of water pressure to transient recharge. Finally, we find that the localisation of moulins has a limited impact except in regions of sparse moulin density.

Description: The Support Force Glacier, one of the large glacier feeding the Filchner Ice Shelf, shows in satellite imagery, e.g. derived from TerraSAR-X, a clear depression along its extension into the ice shelf. At other ice shelves, such features have shown to be subglacial channels. In coincidence a subglacial water routing model shows an outflow at the position of the observed channel and supports the assumption that the subglacial channel is rather caused by subglacial water drainage from the continent and intensified on the floating part. To investigate the nature of the channel in more detail and its implication on the subglacial mass loss of the ice shelf, an extensive phase sensitive radar (pRES) survey has been carried out with the aim to observe melt rates. This is part of the joint AWI-BAS project FISP/FISS that aims to measure current basal melt rates and ocean circulation below the Filchner Ice Shelf. The survey covers the channel with several cross profiles of an FMCW radar along its longitudinal axes, starting about 15 km downstream of the grounding line, and pointwise pRES measurement has been retrieved along the route. Two permanent combined pRES and GPS stations at the southern beginning of the survey profile, located just outside the channel and above the position showing the steepest slope of it, supplement the observations of subglacial melt in the investigated region, however, the data will be recovered only the upcoming field season.

Description: Over the past two decades net mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet quadrupled, caused by enhanced surface melting and speedup of the marine-terminating outlet glaciers. This speedup has been related, among other factors, to enhanced submarine melting, which in turn is caused by warming of the surrounding ocean and by increased subglacial discharge. For the future and recent mass balance changes of the Greenland Ice Sheet, ice-ocean processes potentially play an important role, yet they are not properly represented in contemporary Greenland Ice Sheet models. In this work we performed numerical experiments with a one-dimensional plume model coupled to a one-dimensional model of outlet glacier. We investigate the response of a coupled ice-flow plume model to possible outcomes of climate change. In particularly, we examine the transient and equilibrium response of the outlet glaciers to changes in ocean temperature and subglacial discharge which affects both: glacier geometry and submarine melt rates.

Description: We present simulations with the dynamic/thermodynamic ice sheet model SICOPOLIS (version 3) coupled to HYDRO, a model of basal hydrology. SICOPOLIS describes the evolution of ice thickness, temperature and water content of ice sheets. Recently, the treatment of longitudinal and lateral stresses (“shelfy stream approximation”) for the dynamics and the enthalpy method as an alternative method for solving the energy equation were included into the model. HYDRO describes the basal water transport using the hydrological potential. In a bi-directional coupling, HYDRO receives the basal water fluxes from SICOPOLIS, while the basal water from HYDRO affects the basal sliding in SICOPOLIS. Here, we present offline simulations with HYDRO as well as simulations with SICOPOLIS-only and the coupled model SICOPOLIS-HYDRO. Several sensitivity studies highlight the importance of basal processes. In particular, we inspect the role of horizontal resolution. It shows that not only horizontal resolution plays an important role for resolving outlet glaciers, but also the coupled model better reproduces outlet glaciers compared to the uncoupled one; even the North-East-Greenland Ice Stream is modelled quite well without the need for special regional tuning.

Description: Ice-stream dynamics are strongly controlled by processes taking place at the ice/bed interface where subglacial water both lubricates the base and saturates any existing, underlying sediment. Large parts of the former Eurasian ice sheet were underlain by thick sequences of soft, marine sediments and many areas are imprinted with geomorphological features indicative of fast flow and wet basal conditions. Here, we study the effect of subglacial water on past Eurasian ice-sheet dynamics by incorporating a thin-film model of basal water flow into the ice-sheet model SICOPOLIS and use it to better represent flow in temperate areas. The adjunction of subglacial hydrology results in a smaller ice-sheet building up over time and generally faster ice velocities, which consequently reduces the total area fraction of temperate basal ice and ice streaming areas. Minima in the hydraulic pressure potential, governing water flow, are used as indicators for potential locations of past subglacial lakes and a probability distribution of lake existence is presented based on estimated lake depth and longevity.

Description: Modeling the evolution of subglacial channels underneath ice sheets is an urgent need for ice sheet modellers, as channels affect sliding velocities and hence ice discharge. Owing to very limited observations of the subglacial hydraulic system, the development of physical models is quite restricted. Subglacial hydrology models are currently taking two different approaches: either modeling the development of a network of individual channels or modeling an equivalent porous layer where the channels are not resolved individually but modeled as a diffusive process, adjusted to reproduce the characteristic of an efficient system. Here, we use the latter approach, improving it by using a confined-unconfined aquifer model (CUAS), that allows the system to run dry in absence of sufficient water input. This ensures physical values for the water pressure. Channels are represented by adjusting the permeability and storage of the system according to projected locations of channels. The evolution of channel positions is governed by a reduced complexity model that computes channel growths according to simple rules (weighted random walks descending the hydraulic potential). As a proof of concept we present the results of the evolution of the hydrological system over time for a simple artificial glacier geometry

Description: Subglacial hydrology plays an important role in ice sheet dynamics as it determines the sliding velocity. It also drives freshwater into the ocean, leading to undercutting of calving fronts by plumes. Modeling subglacial water has been a challenge for decades. Only recently have new approaches been developed such as representing subglacial channels and thin water sheets by separate layers of variable hydraulic conductivity. We extend this concept by modeling a confined–unconfined aquifer system (CUAS) in a single layer of an equivalent porous medium (EPM). The advantage of this formulation is that it prevents unphysical values of pressure at reasonable computational cost. We performed sensitivity tests to investigate the effect of different model parameters. The strongest influence of model parameters was detected in terms of governing the opening and closure of the system. Furthermore, we applied the model to the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream, where an efficient system independent of seasonal input was identified about 500km downstream from the ice divide. Using the effective pressure from the hydrology model, the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) showed considerable improvements in modeled velocities in the coastal region.

Description: Recovery Glacier reaches far into the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. Recent projections point out that its dynamic behavior has a considerable impact on future Antarctic ice loss (Golledge et al., 2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072422). Subglacial lakes are thought to play a major role in the initiation of the rapid ice flow (Bell et al., 2007, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature05554). Satellite altimetry observations have even suggested several actively filling and draining subglacial lakes beneath the main trunk (B. E. Smith et al., 2009, https://doi.org/10.3189/002214309789470879). We present new data of the geometry of this glacier and investigate its basal properties employing radio-echo sounding. Using ice sheet modeling, we were able to constrain estimates of radar absorption in the ice, but uncertainties remain large. The magnitude of the basal reflection coefficient is thus still poorly known. However, its spatial variability, in conjunction with additional indicators, can be used to infer the presence of subglacial water. We find no clear evidence of water at most of the previously proposed lake sites. Especially, locations, where altimetry detected active lakes, do not exhibit lake characteristics in radio-echo sounding. We argue that lakes far upstream the main trunk are not triggering enhanced ice flow, which is also supported by modeled subglacial hydrology.

Description: The SHMIP project is the first intercomparison project of subglacial drainage models (http://shmip.bitbucket.org). Its synthetic test suites and evaluation were designed such that any subglacial hydrology model producing effective pressure can participate. In contrast to ice deformation, the physical processes of subglacial hydrology (which in turn impacts basal sliding of glaciers) are poorly known. A further complication is that different glacial and geological settings can lead to different drainage physics. The aim of the project is therefore to qualitatively compare the outputs of the participating models for a wide range of water forcings and glacier geometries. This will allow to put existing studies, which use different drainage models, into context and will allow new studies to select the most suitable model for the problem at hand. We present the results from the just completed intercomparison exercise. Twelve models participated: eight 2D and four 1D models; nine include both an efficient and inefficient system, the other three one of the systems; all but two models use R channels as efficient system, and/or a linked-cavity like inefficient system, one exception uses porous layers with different characteristic for each of the systems, the other exception is based on canals. The main variable used for the comparison is effective pressure, as that is a direct proxy for basal sliding of glaciers. The models produce large differences in the effective pressure fields, in particular for higher water input scenarios. This shows that the selection of a subglacial drainage model will likely impact the conclusions of a study significantly.