Description: We present a consistent data set for the ice thickness, the bedrock topography and the ice surface topography of the King George Island ice cap (Arctowski Icefield and the adjacent central part). The data set is composed of groundbased and airborne Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) and differential GPS (DGPS) measurements, obtained during several field campaigns. The data set incorporates groundbased measurements in the safely accessible inner parts and airborne measurements in the heavily crevassed coastal areas of the ice cap. In particular, the inclusion of airborne GPR measurements with the 30MHz BGR-P30-System developed at the Institute of Geophysics (University of Münster) completes the picture of the ice geometry substantially. The compiled digital elevation model of the bedrock shows a rough, highly variable topography with pronounced valleys, ridges, and troughs. The mean ice thickness is approx. 238m, with a maximum value of approx. 400m in the surveyed area. Noticeable are bounded areas in the bedrock topography below sea level where marine based ice exists.

Description: The Antarctic Peninsula has been identified as a region of rapid on-going climate change with impacts on the cryosphere. The knowledge of glacial changes and freshwater budgets resulting from intensified glacier melt is an important boundary condition for many biological and integrated earth system science approaches. We provide a case study on glacier and mass balance changes for the ice cap of King George Island. The area loss between 2000 and 2008 amounted to about 20 km**2 (about 1.6% of the island area) and compares to glacier retreat rates observed in previous years. Measured net accumulation rates for two years (2007 and 2008) show a strong interannual variability with maximum net accumulation rates of 4950 mm w.e./a and 3184 mm w.e./a, respectively. These net accumulation rates are at least 4 times higher than reported mean values (1926-95) from an ice core. An elevation dependent precipitation rate of 343 mm w.e./a (2007) and 432 mm w.e./a (2008) per 100 m elevation increase was observed. Despite these rather high net accumulation rates on the main ice cap, consistent surface lowering was observed at elevations below 270 m above ellipsoid over an 11-year period. These DGPS records reveal a linear dependence of surface lowering with altitude with a maximum annual surface lowering rate of 1.44 m/a at 40 m and -0.20 m/a at 270 m above ellipsoid. These results fit well to observations by other authors and surface lowering rates derived from the ICESat laser altimeter. Assuming that climate conditions of the past 11 years continue, the small ice cap of Bellingshausen Dome will disappear in about 285 years.

Description: King George Island is located at the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, which is influenced by maritime climate conditions. The observed mean annual air temperature at sea level is -2.4°C. Thus, the ice cap is regarded as sensitive to changing climatic conditions. Ground-penetrating radar surveys indicate a partly temperate ice cap with an extended water layer at the firn/ice transition of the up to 700 m high ice cap. Measured firn temperatures are close to 0°C at the higher elevations, and they differ considerably from the measured mean annual air temperature. The aim of this paper is to present ice-flow dynamics by means of observations and simulations of the flow velocities. During several field campaigns from 1997/98 to 2008/09, ice surface velocities were derived with repeated differential GPS measurements. Ice velocities vary from 0.7 m/a at the dome to 112.1 m/a along steep slopes. For the western part of the ice cap a three-dimensional diagnostic full-Stokes model was applied to calculate ice flow. Parameters of the numerical model were identified with respect to measured ice surface velocities. The simulations indicate cold ice at higher elevations, while temperate ice at lower elevations is consistent with the observations.

Description: The stability of ice shelves depends on the existence of embayments and is largely influenced by ice rises and ice rumples, which act as “pinning-points” for ice shelf movement. Of additional critical importance are interactions between ice shelves and the water masses underlying them in ice shelf cavities, particularly melting and refreezing processes. The present study aims to elucidate the role of ice rises and ice rumples in the context of climate change impacts on Antarctic ice shelves. However, due to their smaller spatial extent, ice rumples react more sensitively to climate change than ice rises. Different forcings are at work and need to be considered separately as well as synergistically. In order to address these issues, we have decided to deal with the following three issues explicitly: oceanographic-, cryospheric and general topics. In so doing, we paid particular attention to possible interrelationships and feedbacks in a coupled ice-shelf-ocean system. With regard to oceanographic issues, we have applied the ocean circulation model ROMBAX to ocean water masses adjacent to and underneath a number of idealized ice shelf configurations: wide and narrow as well as laterally restrained and unrestrained ice shelves. Simulations were performed with and without small ice rises located close to the calving front. For larger configurations, the impact of the ice rises on melt rates at the ice shelf base is negligible, while for smaller configurations net melting rates at the ice-shelf base differ by a factor of up to eight depending on whether ice rises are considered or not. We employed the thermo-coupled ice flow model TIM-FD3 to simulate the effects of several ice rises and one ice rumple on the dynamics of ice shelf flow. We considered the complete un-grounding of the ice shelf in order to investigate the effect of pinning points of different characteristics (interior or near calving front, small and medium sized) on the resulting flow and stress fields, focusing on the floating ice parts of the Brunt and Riiser-Larsen ice shelves. The major response of the ice is observed instantaneously and is caused by the time independent nature of the Stokes equations and the used Glen-type rheology. The influence of ice temperatures and therefore the time-dependent effect on the flow-rate are small, given a 100 year time frame and applying a fixed-geometry setting.. A particularly important result of the current project lies in the fact that we have numerically simulated the three-dimensional stress fields in an ice shelf. Common numerical models that utilize a vertically integrated Shallow Shelf Approximation (SSA-models), do not provide that information. Due to the detailed horizontal resolution of 1km in our models, we were able to also model the observed heavily fractured areas in the vicinity of McDonald Ice Rise, a region that is characterized by simulated tensile stresses reaching maximum vertical extension in the ice column.

Description: Numerical simulations moved in the recent year(s) from describing the cold-temperate transition surface (CTS) towards an enthalpy description, which allows avoiding incorporating a singular surface inside the model (As- chwanden et al., 2012). In Enthalpy methods the CTS is represented as a level set of the enthalpy state variable. This method has several numerical and practical advantages (e.g. representation of the full energy by one scalar field, no restriction to topology and shape of the CTS). The proposed method is rather new in glaciology and to our knowledge not verified and validated against analytical solutions. Unfortunately we are still lacking analytical solutions for sufficiently complex thermo-mechanically coupled polythermal ice flow. However, we present two experiments to test the implementation of the enthalpy equation and corresponding boundary conditions. The first experiment tests particularly the functionality of the boundary condition scheme and the corresponding basal melt rate calculation. Dependent on the different thermal situations that occur at the base, the numerical code may have to switch to another boundary type (from Neuman to Dirichlet or vice versa). The main idea of this set-up is to test the reversibility during transients. A former cold ice body that run through a warmer period with an associated built up of a liquid water layer at the base must be able to return to its initial steady state. Since we impose several assumptions on the experiment design analytical solutions can be formulated for different quantities during distinct stages of the simulation. The second experiment tests the positioning of the internal CTS in a parallel-sided poly- thermal slab. We compare our simulation results to the analytical solution proposed by Greve and Blatter (2009). Results from three different ice flow-models (COMIce, ISSM, TIMFD3) are presented.

Description: Predictions of marine ice-sheet behaviour require models able to simulate grounding-line migration. We present results of an intercomparison experiment for plan-view marine ice-sheet models. Verification is effected by comparison with approximate analytical solutions for flux across the grounding line using simplified geometrical configurations (no lateral variations, no buttressing effects from lateral drag). Perturbation experiments specifying spatial variation in basal sliding parameters permitted the evolution of curved grounding lines, generating buttressing effects. The experiments showed regions of compression and extensional flow across the grounding line, thereby invalidating the boundary layer theory. Steady-state grounding-line positions were found to be dependent on the level of physical model approximation. Resolving grounding lines requires inclusion of membrane stresses, a sufficiently small grid size (〈500m), or subgrid interpolation of the grounding line. The latter still requires nominal grid sizes of 〈5 km. For larger grid spacings, appropriate parameterizations for ice flux may be imposed at the grounding line, but the short-time transient behaviour is then incorrect and different from models that do not incorporate grounding-line parameterizations. The numerical error associated with predicting grounding-line motion can be reduced significantly below the errors associated with parameter ignorance and uncertainties in future scenarios.

Description: Full-Stokes (FS) ice sheet models provide the most sophisticated formulation of ice sheet flow. However, their applicability is often limited due to the high computational demand and numerical challenges. To balance computational demand and accuracy, the so-called Blatter–Pattyn (BP) stress regime is frequently used. Here, we explore the dynamic consequences of using simplified approaches by solving FS and the BP stress regime applied to the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream. To ensure a consistent comparison, we use one single ice sheet model to run the simulations under identical numerical conditions. A sensitivity study to the horizontal grid resolution (from 12.8 to a resolution of 0.1 km) reveals that velocity differences between the FS and BP solution emerge below ∼ 1 km horizontal resolution and continuously increase with resolution. Over the majority of the modelling domain both models reveal similar surface velocity patterns. At the grounding line of the 79∘ North Glacier the simulations show considerable differences whereby the BP model overestimates ice discharge of up to 50 % compared to FS. A sensitivity study to the friction type reveals that differences are stronger for a power-law friction than a linear friction law. Model differences are attributed to topographic variability and the basal drag, in which neglected stress terms in BP become important.

Description: Accurately modelling the contribution of Greenland and Antarctica to sea level rise requires solving partial differential equations at a high spatial resolution. In this paper, we discuss the scaling of the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) applied to the Greenland Ice Sheet with horizontal grid resolutions varying between 10 and 0.25 km. The model setup used as benchmark problem comprises a variety of modules with different levels of complexity and computational demands. The core builds the so-called stress balance module, which uses the higher-order approximation (or Blatter–Pattyn) of the Stokes equations, including free surface and ice-front evolution as well as thermodynamics in form of an enthalpy balance, and a mesh of linear prismatic finite elements, to compute the ice flow. We develop a detailed user-oriented, yet low-overhead, performance instrumentation tailored to the requirements of Earth system models and run scaling tests up to 6144 Message Passing Interface (MPI) processes. The results show that the computation of the Greenland model scales overall well up to 3072 MPI processes but is eventually slowed down by matrix assembly, the output handling and lower-dimensional problems that employ lower numbers of unknowns per MPI process. We also discuss improvements of the scaling and identify further improvements needed for climate research. The instrumented version of ISSM thus not only identifies potential performance bottlenecks that were not present at lower core counts but also provides the capability to continually monitor the performance of ISSM code basis. This is of long-term significance as the overall performance of ISSM model depends on the subtle interplay between algorithms, their implementation, underlying libraries, compilers, run-time systems and hardware characteristics, all of which are in a constant state of flux. We believe that future large-scale high-performance computing (HPC) systems will continue to employ the MPI-based programming paradigm on the road to exascale. Our scaling study pertains to a particular modelling setup available within ISSM and does not address accelerator techniques such as the use of vector units or GPUs. However, with 6144 MPI processes, we identified issues that need to be addressed in order to improve the ability of the ISSM code base to take advantage of upcoming systems that will require scaling to even higher numbers of MPI processes.

Description: The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2,3,4,5,6,7,8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

Description: Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.