Description: Originating in the equatorial Pacific, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has highly consequential global impacts, motivating the need to understand its responses to anthropogenic warming. In this Review, we synthesize advances in observed and projected changes of multiple aspects of ENSO, including the processes behind such changes. As in previous syntheses, there is an inter-model consensus of an increase in future ENSO rainfall variability. Now, however, it is apparent that models that best capture key ENSO dynamics also tend to project an increase in future ENSO sea surface temperature variability and, thereby, ENSO magnitude under greenhouse warming, as well as an eastward shift and intensification of ENSO-related atmospheric teleconnections — the Pacific–North American and Pacific–South American patterns. Such projected changes are consistent with palaeoclimate evidence of stronger ENSO variability since the 1950s compared with past centuries. The increase in ENSO variability, though underpinned by increased equatorial Pacific upper-ocean stratification, is strongly influenced by internal variability, raising issues about its quantifiability and detectability. Yet, ongoing coordinated community efforts and computational advances are enabling long-simulation, large-ensemble experiments and high-resolution modelling, offering encouraging prospects for alleviating model biases, incorporating fundamental dynamical processes and reducing uncertainties in projections. Key points Under anthropogenic warming, the majority of climate models project faster background warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific compared with the west. The observed equatorial Pacific surface warming pattern since 1980, though opposite to the projected faster warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific, is within the inter-model range in terms of sea surface temperature (SST) gradients and is subject to influence from internal variability. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) rainfall responses in the equatorial Pacific are projected to intensify and shift eastward, leading to an eastward intensification of extratropical teleconnections. ENSO SST variability and extreme ENSO events are projected to increase under greenhouse warming, with a stronger inter-model consensus in CMIP6 compared with CMIP5. However, the time of emergence for ENSO SST variability is later than that for ENSO rainfall variability, opposite to that for mean SST versus mean rainfall. Future ENSO change is likely influenced by past variability, such that quantification of future ENSO in the only realization of the real world is challenging. Although there is no definitive relationship of ENSO variability with the mean zonal SST gradient or seasonal cycle, palaeoclimate records suggest a causal connection between vertical temperature stratification and ENSO strength, and a greater ENSO strength since the 1950s than in past centuries, supporting an emerging increase in ENSO variability under greenhouse warming.

Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Tuchen, F., Brandt, P., Hahn, J., Hummels, R., Krahmann, G., Bourlès, B., Provost, C., McPhaden, M., & Toole, J. Two decades of full-depth current velocity observations from a moored observatory in the central equatorial Atlantic at 0°N, 23°W. Frontiers in Marine Science, 9, (2022): 910979, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.910979.

Description: Regional climate variability in the tropical Atlantic, from interannual to decadal time scales, is inevitably connected to changes in the strength and position of the individual components of the tropical current system with impacts on societally relevant climate hazards such as anomalous rainfall or droughts over the surrounding continents (Bourlès et al., 2019; Foltz et al., 2019). Furthermore, the lateral supply of dissolved oxygen in the tropical Atlantic upper-ocean is closely linked to the zonal current bands (Brandt et al., 2008; Brandt et al., 2012; Burmeister et al., 2020) and especially to the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) and its long-term variations with potential implications for regional marine ecosystems (Brandt et al., 2021). The eastward flowing EUC is located between 70 to 200 m depth and forms one of the strongest tropical currents with maximum velocities of up to 1 m s-1 and maximum variability on seasonal time scales (Brandt et al., 2014; Johns et al., 2014). In the intermediate to deep equatorial Atlantic, variability on longer time scales is mainly governed by alternating, vertically-stacked, zonal currents (equatorial deep jets (EDJs); Johnson and Zhang, 2003). At a fixed location, the phases of these jets are propagating downward with time, implying that parts of their energy must propagate upward towards the surface (Brandt et al., 2011). In fact, a pronounced interannual cycle of about 4.5 years, that is associated with EDJs, is projected onto surface parameters such as sea surface temperature or precipitation (Brandt et al., 2011) further demonstrating the importance of understanding equatorial circulation variability and its role in tropical climate variability.

Description: This study was funded by EU H2020 under grant agreement 817578 TRIATLAS project, by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft as part of the Sonderforschungsbereich754 “Climate–Biogeochemistry Interactions in the Tropical Ocean” and through several research cruises with RV Meteor, RV Maria S. Merian, RV L'Atalante, and RV Sonne and by the Deutsche Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF) as part of the projects RACE (03F06518) and by the European Union 7th Framework Programme (FP7) under Grant Agreement 603521. Moored velocity observations were acquired in cooperation with the PIRATA project supported by NOAA (USA), IRD and Meteo-France (France), INPE (Brazil) and the Brazil Navy. This research was performed while FPT held an NRC Research Associateship Award at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. FPT, PB, JH, RH, and GK are grateful for continuing support from GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel. MM acknowledges the support of NOAA; PMEL contribution no. 5359. JT's contributions to this study were supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation.