Description: Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

Description: The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet contribution from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century. The purpose of this computation is to estimate the uncertainty of Antarctica's future contribution to global sea level rise that arises from large uncertainty in the oceanic forcing and the associated ice shelf melting. Ice shelf melting is considered to be a major if not the largest perturbation of the ice sheet's flow into the ocean. However, by computing only the sea level contribution in response to ice shelf melting, our study is neglecting a number of processes such as surface-mass-balance-related contributions. In assuming linear response theory, we are able to capture complex temporal responses of the ice sheets, but we neglect any self-dampening or self-amplifying processes. This is particularly relevant in situations in which an instability is dominating the ice loss. The results obtained here are thus relevant, in particular wherever the ice loss is dominated by the forcing as opposed to an internal instability, for example in strong ocean warming scenarios. In order to allow for comparison the methodology was chosen to be exactly the same as in an earlier study (Levermann et al., 2014) but with 16 instead of 5 ice sheet models. We include uncertainty in the atmospheric warming response to carbon emissions (full range of CMIP5 climate model sensitivities), uncertainty in the oceanic transport to the Southern Ocean (obtained from the time-delayed and scaled oceanic subsurface warming in CMIP5 models in relation to the global mean surface warming), and the observed range of responses of basal ice shelf melting to oceanic warming outside the ice shelf cavity. This uncertainty in basal ice shelf melting is then convoluted with the linear response functions of each of the 16 ice sheet models to obtain the ice flow response to the individual global warming path. The model median for the observational period from 1992 to 2017 of the ice loss due to basal ice shelf melting is 10.2 mm, with a likely range between 5.2 and 21.3 mm. For the same period the Antarctic ice sheet lost mass equivalent to 7.4 mm of global sea level rise, with a standard deviation of 3.7 mm (Shepherd et al., 2018) including all processes, especially surface-mass-balance changes. For the unabated warming path, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), we obtain a median contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global mean sea level rise from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century of 17 cm, with a likely range (66th percentile around the mean) between 9 and 36 cm and a very likely range (90th percentile around the mean) between 6 and 58 cm. For the RCP2.6 warming path, which will keep the global mean temperature below 2 ∘C of global warming and is thus consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement, the procedure yields a median of 13 cm of global mean sea level contribution. The likely range for the RCP2.6 scenario is between 7 and 24 cm, and the very likely range is between 4 and 37 cm. The structural uncertainties in the method do not allow for an interpretation of any higher uncertainty percentiles. We provide projections for the five Antarctic regions and for each model and each scenario separately. The rate of sea level contribution is highest under the RCP8.5 scenario. The maximum within the 21st century of the median value is 4 cm per decade, with a likely range between 2 and 9 cm per decade and a very likely range between 1 and 14 cm per decade.

Description: The roughness of a glacier bed has high importance for the estimation of the sliding velocity and can also provide valuable insights into the dynamics and history of ice sheets, depending on scale. Measurement of basal properties in present-day ice sheets is restricted to ground-penetrating radar and seismics, with surveys retrieving relatively coarse data sets. Deglaciated areas, like the Barents Sea, can be surveyed by shipborne 2-D and 3-D seismics and multibeam sonar and provide the possibility of studying the basal roughness of former ice sheets and ice streams with high resolution. Here, for the first time, we quantify the subglacial roughness of the former Barents Sea ice sheet by estimating the spectral roughness of the basal topography. We also make deductions about the past flow directions by investigating how the roughness varies along a 2-D line as the orientation of the line changes. Lastly, we investigate how the estimated basal roughness is affected by the resolution of the basal topography data set by comparing the spectral roughness along a cross section using various sampling intervals. We find that the roughness typically varies on a similar scale as for other previously marine-inundated areas in West Antarctica, with subglacial troughs having very low roughness, consistent with fast ice flow and high rates of basal erosion. The resolution of the data set seems to be of minor importance when comparing roughness indices calculated with a fixed profile length. A strong dependence on track orientation is shown for all wavelengths, with profiles having higher roughness across former flow directions than along them.

Description: Ice shelves play an important role in stabilizing the interior grounded ice of the large ice sheets. The thinning of major ice shelves observed in recent years, possibly in connection to warmer ocean waters coming into contact with the ice-shelf base, has focused attention on the ice-ocean interface. Here we reveal a complex network of sub ice-shelf channels under the Fimbul Ice Shelf, Antarctica, mapped using ground-penetrating radar over a 100 km2 grid. The channels are 300–500 m wide and 50 m high, among the narrowest of any reported. Observing narrow channels beneath an ice shelf that is mainly surrounded by cold ocean waters, with temperatures close to the surface freezing point, shows that channelized basal melting is not restricted to rapidly melting ice shelves, indicating that spatial melt patterns around Antarctica are likely to vary on scales that are not yet incorporated in ice-ocean models.

Description: Ice shelves are important elements of the climate system and sensitive to climate changes. The disintegration of large Antarctic ice shelves is the focus of this fracture mechanical analysis. Ice is a complex material which, depending on the context, can be seen as a viscous fluid or as an elastic solid. A fracture event usually occurs on a rather short time scale, thus the elastic response is important and linear elastic fracture mechanics can be used. The investigation of the stress intensity factor as a measure of crack tip loading is based on a 2-dimensional analysis of a single crack with a mode-I type load and additional body loads. This investigation is performed using configurational forces. Depth dependent density and temperature profiles are considered. The relevant parameters are obtained by literature, remote sensing data analysis and modeling of the ice dynamics. The criticality of wet surface cracks is investigated.

Description: Previous studies on the sensitivity of cracks in ice shelves with different boundary conditions, stress states and density profiles revealed the need for further analyses. As the transfer of boundary conditions from dynamic ice flow simulations to the linear elastic fracture analyses proved to be a critical point in previous studies, a new approach to relate viscous and elastic material behaviour is proposed. The numerical simulations are conducted using Finite Elements utilizing the concept of configurational forces. To show the applicability of the approach, a 2-dimensional plane stress geometry with volume loads due to the ice shelf flow is analyzed. The resulting crack path is compared to available crack paths from satellite images.

Description: Ice shelves are formed by the viscous flow of inland ice into the ocean, they are floating and loosing mass by iceberg calving. There are two different kinds of calving: large tabular icebergs detach as singular events in time, and small scale calving occuring on a rather continuous time scale. Three visco-elastic approaches are discussed, in order to derive a general law for calving rates applicable to small scale calving. The results are highly dependent on the termination criterium for each approach, hence the computed calving rate has to be adapted and validated with measurements to get the most qualified value.

Description: Break-up events in ice shelves have been studied extensively during the last years. One popular assumption links disintegration events to surface melting of the ice shelf in conjunction with growing melt-water ponds, leading to hydro-fracture. As this explanation only holds during warm seasons [1], the possibility of frost wedging as forcing mechanism for autumn and winter break-up events is considered. Frost wedging can only occur if a closed ice lid seals the water inside the crack. Hence, the present study of frost wedging in a single crack uses ice lid thicknesses to evaluate the additional pressure on the crack faces. The investigation of the resulting stress intensity factor as a measure of crack criticality follows consequently. The results show that freezing water inside a crack can result in unstable crack growth of an initially stable water filled crack.