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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    West Antarctic Surface Climate Changes Since the Mid‐20th Century Driven by Anthropogenic Forcing
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2022
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 49, No. 16 ( 2022-08-28)
    Details
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 49, No. 16 ( 2022-08-28)
    Abstract: Surface climate changes since the 1950s in West Antarctica are out of the range of internal variability The increase in greenhouse gas emissions and stratospheric ozone depletion are responsible for these changes The future changes over the 21st century will depend on both the greenhouse gas emissions and the ozone layer recovery
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0094-8276 , 1944-8007
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2022GL099543
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021599-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7403-2
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Forced and Unforced Decadal Behavior of the Interhemispheric SST Contrast during the Instrumental Period (1881–2012): Contextualizing the Late 1960s–Early 1970s Shift
    American Meteorological Society ; 2020
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 33, No. 9 ( 2020-05-01), p. 3487-3509
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 33, No. 9 ( 2020-05-01), p. 3487-3509
    Abstract: The sea surface temperature (SST) contrast between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) influences the location of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the intensity of the monsoon systems. This study examines the contributions of external forcing and unforced internal variability to the interhemispheric SST contrast in HadSST3 and ERSSTv5 observations, and 10 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) from 1881 to 2012. Using multimodel mean fingerprints, a significant influence of anthropogenic, but not natural, forcing is detected in the interhemispheric SST contrast, with the observed response larger than that of the model mean in ERSSTv5. The forced response consists of asymmetric NH–SH SST cooling from the mid-twentieth century to around 1980, followed by opposite NH–SH SST warming. The remaining best-estimate residual or unforced component is marked by NH–SH SST maxima in the 1930s and mid-1960s, and a rapid NH–SH SST decrease around 1970. Examination of decadal shifts in the observed interhemispheric SST contrast highlights the shift around 1970 as the most prominent from 1881 to 2012. Both NH and SH SST variability contributed to the shift, which appears not to be attributable to external forcings. Most models examined fail to capture such large-magnitude shifts in their control simulations, although some models with high interhemispheric SST variability are able to produce them. Large-magnitude shifts produced by the control simulations feature disparate spatial SST patterns, some of which are consistent with changes typically associated with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC).
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0102.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Orbital Forcing Strongly Influences Seasonal Temperature Trends During the Last Millennium
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2021
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 48, No. 4 ( 2021-02-28)
    Details
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 48, No. 4 ( 2021-02-28)
    Abstract: Orbital forcing induces a strong seasonal fingerprint in climate model simulations, which is distinct from any other forcings Over the last millennium, surface temperature trends simulated by climate models lag asymmetrically behind the insolation by around a month Differences between long‐term trends of proxy records could be caused by seasonal orbital forcing, which influences climate reconstructions
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0094-8276 , 1944-8007
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2020GL088776
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021599-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7403-2
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The effect of volcanic eruptions on global precipitation
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2013
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Vol. 118, No. 16 ( 2013-08-27), p. 8770-8786
    Details
    In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 118, No. 16 ( 2013-08-27), p. 8770-8786
    Abstract: Following eruptions wet regions get drier and dry regions wetter in HadCM3 Observed response to volcanic eruptions is noisy but detectable in boreal winter HadCM3 underestimates the global and wet tropics boreal winter land response
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2169-897X , 2169-8996
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.v118.16
    DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50678
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2013
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 710256-2
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016800-7
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2969341-X
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Separating Forced from Chaotic Climate Variability over the Past Millennium
    American Meteorological Society ; 2013
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 26, No. 18 ( 2013-09-15), p. 6954-6973
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 26, No. 18 ( 2013-09-15), p. 6954-6973
    Abstract: Reconstructions of past climate show notable temperature variability over the past millennium, with relatively warm conditions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and a relatively cold Little Ice Age (LIA). Multimodel simulations of the past millennium are used together with a wide range of reconstructions of Northern Hemispheric mean annual temperature to separate climate variability from 850 to 1950 CE into components attributable to external forcing and internal climate variability. External forcing is found to contribute significantly to long-term temperature variations irrespective of the proxy reconstruction, particularly from 1400 onward. Over the MCA alone, however, the effect of forcing is only detectable in about half of the reconstructions considered, and the response to forcing in the models cannot explain the warm conditions around 1000 CE seen in some reconstructions. The residual from the detection analysis is used to estimate internal variability independent from climate modeling, and it is found that the recent observed 50- and 100-yr hemispheric temperature trends are substantially larger than any of the internally generated trends even using the large residuals over the MCA. Variations in solar output and explosive volcanism are found to be the main drivers of climate change from 1400 to 1900, but for the first time a significant contribution from greenhouse gas variations to the cold conditions during 1600–1800 is also detected. The proxy reconstructions tend to show a smaller forced response than is simulated by the models. This discrepancy is shown, at least partly, to be likely associated with the difference in the response to large volcanic eruptions between reconstructions and model simulations.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00826.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2013
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Determining the likelihood of pauses and surges in global warming
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2015
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 42, No. 14 ( 2015-07-28), p. 5974-5982
    Details
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 42, No. 14 ( 2015-07-28), p. 5974-5982
    Abstract: The recent hiatus is not unusual in the context of the last 230 years Models agree with observations regarding likelihood and pattern of events Likelihood increases if natural forcings (e.g., volcanic) are also considered
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0094-8276 , 1944-8007
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/grl.v42.14
    DOI: 10.1002/2015GL064458
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2015
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021599-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7403-2
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Possible causes of data model discrepancy in the temperature history of the last Millennium
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2018
    In:  Scientific Reports Vol. 8, No. 1 ( 2018-05-15)
    Details
    In: Scientific Reports, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 8, No. 1 ( 2018-05-15)
    Abstract: Model simulations and proxy-based reconstructions are the main tools for quantifying pre-instrumental climate variations. For some metrics such as Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures, there is remarkable agreement between models and reconstructions. For other diagnostics, such as the regional response to volcanic eruptions, or hemispheric temperature differences, substantial disagreements between data and models have been reported. Here, we assess the potential sources of these discrepancies by comparing 1000-year hemispheric temperature reconstructions based on real-world paleoclimate proxies with climate-model-based pseudoproxies. These pseudoproxy experiments (PPE) indicate that noise inherent in proxy records and the unequal spatial distribution of proxy data are the key factors in explaining the data-model differences. For example, lower inter-hemispheric correlations in reconstructions can be fully accounted for by these factors in the PPE. Noise and data sampling also partly explain the reduced amplitude of the response to external forcing in reconstructions compared to models. For other metrics, such as inter-hemispheric differences, some, although reduced, discrepancy remains. Our results suggest that improving proxy data quality and spatial coverage is the key factor to increase the quality of future climate reconstructions, while the total number of proxy records and reconstruction methodology play a smaller role.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2045-2322
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-25862-2
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2615211-3
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Quantifying the contribution of forcing and three prominent modes of variability to historical climate
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2023
    In:  Climate of the Past Vol. 19, No. 5 ( 2023-05-09), p. 943-957
    Details
    In: Climate of the Past, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 19, No. 5 ( 2023-05-09), p. 943-957
    Abstract: Abstract. Climate models can produce accurate representations of the most important modes of climate variability, but they cannot be expected to follow their observed time evolution. This makes direct comparison of simulated and observed variability difficult and creates uncertainty in estimates of forced change. We investigate the role of three modes of climate variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode, as pacemakers of climate variability since 1781, evaluating where their evolution masks or enhances forced climate trends. We use particle filter data assimilation to constrain the observed variability in a global climate model without nudging, producing a near-free-running model simulation with the time evolution of these modes similar to those observed. Since the climate model also contains external forcings, these simulations, in combination with model experiments with identical forcing but no assimilation, can be used to compare the forced response to the effect of the three modes assimilated and evaluate the extent to which these are confounded with the forced response. The assimilated model is significantly closer than the “forcing only” simulations to annual temperature and precipitation observations over many regions, in particular the tropics, the North Atlantic and Europe. The results indicate where initialised simulations that track these modes could be expected to show additional skill. Assimilating the three modes cannot explain the large discrepancy previously found between observed and modelled variability in the southern extra-tropics but constraining the El Niño–Southern Oscillation reconciles simulated global cooling with that observed after volcanic eruptions.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1814-9332
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/cp-19-943-2023
    DOI: 10.5194/cp-19-943-2023-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2217985-9
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Importance of Accounting for the North Atlantic Oscillation When Applying Observational Constraints to European Climate Projections
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2023
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 50, No. 16 ( 2023-08-28)
    Details
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 50, No. 16 ( 2023-08-28)
    Abstract: Variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has contributed to the recent multidecadal trends observed in European climate The suite of current comprehensive global models (CMIP6) struggle to reproduce the NAO's contribution to multidecadal trends Removing the NAO from both observations and models provides a tighter, unbiased constraint, which can then be applied to model projections
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0094-8276 , 1944-8007
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2023GL103431
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021599-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7403-2
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The importance of ENSO phase during volcanic eruptions for detection and attribution
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2016
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 43, No. 6 ( 2016-03-28), p. 2851-2858
    Details
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 43, No. 6 ( 2016-03-28), p. 2851-2858
    Abstract: There is disagreement between observed and simulated global mean cooling response to recent volcanic eruptions Accounting for the observed coincidence of El Niño events with recent eruptions resolves this bias Detection and attribution studies must consider sampling biases arising from internal variability
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0094-8276 , 1944-8007
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/grl.v43.6
    DOI: 10.1002/2016GL067935
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2016
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021599-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7403-2
    SSG: 16,13
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