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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Wiley ; 2018
    In:  Diversity and Distributions Vol. 24, No. 10 ( 2018-10), p. 1492-1502
    In: Diversity and Distributions, Wiley, Vol. 24, No. 10 ( 2018-10), p. 1492-1502
    Abstract: Modelling the response of β‐diversity (i.e., the turnover in species composition among sites) to environmental variation has wide‐ranging applications, including informing conservation planning, understanding community assembly and forecasting the impacts of climate change. However, modelling β‐diversity is challenging, especially for multiple diversity facets (i.e., taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity), and current methods have important limitations. Here, we present a new approach for predicting the response of multifaceted β‐diversity to the environment, called Multifaceted Biodiversity Modelling ( MBM ). We illustrate the approach using both a plant diversity dataset from the French Alps and a set of simulated data. We also provide an implementation via an R package. Location French Alps. Methods For both the French Alps and the simulated communities, we compute β‐diversity indices (e.g., Sørensen dissimilarity, mean functional/phylogenetic pairwise distance) among site pairs. We then apply Gaussian process regression, a flexible nonlinear modelling technique, to predict β‐diversity in response to environmental distance among site pairs. For comparison, we also perform similar analyses using Generalized Dissimilarity Modelling ( GDM ), a well‐established method for modelling β‐diversity in response to environmental distance. Results In the Alps, we observed a general increase in taxonomic ( TD ) and functional ( FD ) β‐diversity (i.e., site pairs were more different from each other) as the climatic distance between site pairs increased. GDM performed better for TD and FD when fitting to calibration data, whereas MBM performed better for both when predicting to a validation dataset. For phylogenetic β‐diversity, MBM outperformed GDM in predicting the observed decrease in phylogenetic β‐diversity with increasing climatic distance. Main conclusions Multifaceted Biodiversity Modelling provides a flexible new approach that expands our capacity to model multiple facets of β‐diversity. Advantages of MBM over existing methods include simpler assumptions, more flexible modelling, potential to consider multiple facets of diversity across a range of diversity indices, and robust uncertainty estimation.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1366-9516 , 1472-4642
    URL: Issue
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2020139-4
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1443181-6
    SSG: 12
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  • 2
    In: Global Ecology and Biogeography, Wiley, Vol. 28, No. 11 ( 2019-11), p. 1636-1648
    Abstract: Although much has been said on the spatial distribution of taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity of vertebrates, how this diversity interacts in food webs and how these interactions change across space are largely unknown. Here, we analysed the spatial distribution of tetrapod food webs and asked whether the variation in local food web structure is driven by random processes or by natural and anthropogenic factors. Location Europe. Time period Present. Major taxa studied Tetrapods. Methods We combined an expert‐based food web (1,140 species and 70,601 links) of all European tetrapods with their respective spatial distributions. We mapped 17 different food web metrics representing complexity, chain length, vertical diversity and diet strategy across Europe and tested whether their distribution reflects the spatial structure of species richness using a null model of food web structure. To avoid multicollinearity issues, we defined composite descriptors of food web structure that we related to a set of environmental layers summarizing both natural and anthropogenic influences and tested their relative importance in explaining the spatial distribution of European terrestrial vertebrate food webs. Results Of the 17 metrics, 10 showed a non‐random spatial distribution across Europe and could be summarized along two major axes of variation in food web structure. The first was related to species richness, mean trophic level and the proportion of intermediate species, whereas the second was related to the connectance and proximity of species within the web. Both descriptors varied with latitudinal gradient. The best descriptors of food web structure were mean annual temperature and seasonality (negatively correlated with the first axis), and human footprint (positively correlated with the second axis). Main conclusions We demonstrate the importance of climate and anthropogenic pressure in shaping the spatial structure of European tetrapod food webs.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1466-822X , 1466-8238
    URL: Issue
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1479787-2
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021283-5
    SSG: 12
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  • 3
    In: Journal of Biogeography, Wiley, Vol. 47, No. 1 ( 2020-01), p. 44-58
    Abstract: The positive effect of primary productivity on animal species richness is one of the most conspicuous ecological features on Earth. However, less is known about the relationship between ecosystems primary productivity and the evolutionary history of biota. Here, we analyse how global primary productivity relates to the phylogenetic structure of vertebrate assemblages, and to the distribution of the most distinct lineages and recently diversified clades. Location Global. Taxon Amphibians, birds and mammals. Methods We calculated relative phylogenetic diversity (i.e. phylogenetic diversity corrected for species richness), standardized effect size of the richness of top 25% evolutionary distinct species and of top 25% species‐level lineage diversification rates. We related these three metrics to mean net primary productivity (NPP) at the global scale, and for each zoogeographic region. We also tested the influence of the spatial scaling of species pool on the overall analyses (global, hemispheric and zoogeographic regions‐based species pools). Results Phylogenetic diversity (corrected for species richness) of the three taxa decreases with NPP (in contrast with species richness) and varies considerably in space. High productivity sites harbour more closely related species than low productivity sites consistently across zoogeographic zones. However, the phylogenetically most distinct species are also found in high productivity sites, while the top most rapidly diversifying lineages are found in the least productive sites. Modifying the spatial extent of the species pool did not affect the results much. Conclusions Benign conditions in high productivity sites (a) result in denser niche packing and thus allow for the coexistence of many closely‐related species and (b) protect the persistence of evolutionary distinct species. Low productivity sites may harbour fewer, more distinct and temporarily more variable niches that allow maintenance of unique lineages for longer periods of time.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0305-0270 , 1365-2699
    URL: Issue
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2020428-0
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 188963-1
    SSG: 12
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Elsevier BV ; 2020
    In:  Trends in Ecology & Evolution Vol. 35, No. 12 ( 2020-12), p. 1119-1128
    In: Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Elsevier BV, Vol. 35, No. 12 ( 2020-12), p. 1119-1128
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0169-5347
    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1498910-4
    SSG: 12
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Wiley ; 2022
    In:  Ecology Letters Vol. 25, No. 4 ( 2022-04), p. 889-899
    In: Ecology Letters, Wiley, Vol. 25, No. 4 ( 2022-04), p. 889-899
    Abstract: We have very limited knowledge of how species interact in most communities and ecosystems despite trophic relationships being fundamental for linking biodiversity to ecosystem functioning. A promising approach to fill this gap is to predict interactions based on functional traits, but many questions remain about how well we can predict interactions for different taxa, ecosystems and amounts of input data. Here, we built a new traits‐based model of trophic interactions for European vertebrates and found that even models calibrated with 0.1% of the interactions (100 out of 71 k) estimated the full European vertebrate food web reasonably well. However, predators were easier to predict than prey, especially for some clades (e.g. fowl and storks) and local food web connectance was consistently overestimated. Our results demonstrate the ability to rapidly generate food webs when empirical data are lacking—an important step towards a more complete and spatially explicit description of food webs.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1461-023X , 1461-0248
    URL: Issue
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2020195-3
    SSG: 12
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  • 6
    In: Ecological Monographs, Wiley, Vol. 88, No. 4 ( 2018-11), p. 485-504
    Abstract: In ecology, the true causal structure for a given problem is often not known, and several plausible models and thus model predictions exist. It has been claimed that using weighted averages of these models can reduce prediction error, as well as better reflect model selection uncertainty. These claims, however, are often demonstrated by isolated examples. Analysts must better understand under which conditions model averaging can improve predictions and their uncertainty estimates. Moreover, a large range of different model averaging methods exists, raising the question of how they differ in their behaviour and performance. Here, we review the mathematical foundations of model averaging along with the diversity of approaches available. We explain that the error in model‐averaged predictions depends on each model's predictive bias and variance, as well as the covariance in predictions between models, and uncertainty about model weights. We show that model averaging is particularly useful if the predictive error of contributing model predictions is dominated by variance, and if the covariance between models is low. For noisy data, which predominate in ecology, these conditions will often be met. Many different methods to derive averaging weights exist, from Bayesian over information‐theoretical to cross‐validation optimized and resampling approaches. A general recommendation is difficult, because the performance of methods is often context dependent. Importantly, estimating weights creates some additional uncertainty. As a result, estimated model weights may not always outperform arbitrary fixed weights, such as equal weights for all models. When averaging a set of models with many inadequate models, however, estimating model weights will typically be superior to equal weights. We also investigate the quality of the confidence intervals calculated for model‐averaged predictions, showing that they differ greatly in behaviour and seldom manage to achieve nominal coverage. Our overall recommendations stress the importance of non‐parametric methods such as cross‐validation for a reliable uncertainty quantification of model‐averaged predictions.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0012-9615 , 1557-7015
    URL: Issue
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2010129-6
    SSG: 12
    SSG: 14
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  • 7
    In: Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Elsevier BV, ( 2024-2)
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0169-5347
    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 2024
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1498910-4
    SSG: 12
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  • 8
    In: Global Change Biology, Wiley, Vol. 30, No. 3 ( 2024-03)
    Abstract: Vertebrate species worldwide are currently facing significant declines in many populations. Although we have gained substantial knowledge about the direct threats that affect individual species, these threats only represent a fraction of the broader vertebrate threat profile, which is also shaped by species interactions. For example, threats faced by prey species can jeopardize the survival of their predators due to food resource scarcity. Yet, indirect threats arising from species interactions have received limited investigation thus far. In this study, we investigate the indirect consequences of anthropogenic threats on biodiversity in the context of European vertebrate food webs. We integrated data on trophic interactions among over 800 terrestrial vertebrates, along with their associated human‐induced threats. We quantified and mapped the vulnerability of various components of the food web, including species, interactions, and trophic groups to six major threats: pollution, agricultural intensification, climate change, direct exploitation, urbanization, and invasive alien species and diseases. Direct exploitation and agricultural intensification were two major threats for terrestrial vertebrate food webs: affecting 34% and 31% of species, respectively, they threaten 85% and 69% of interactions in Europe. By integrating network ecology with threat impact assessments, our study contributes to a better understanding of the magnitude of anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1354-1013 , 1365-2486
    URL: Issue
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2024
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2020313-5
    SSG: 12
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  • 9
    In: Current Biology, Elsevier BV, Vol. 32, No. 9 ( 2022-05), p. 2093-2100.e3
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0960-9822
    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2019214-9
    SSG: 12
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2024
    In:  Nature Ecology & Evolution Vol. 8, No. 3 ( 2024-01-22), p. 454-466
    In: Nature Ecology & Evolution, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 8, No. 3 ( 2024-01-22), p. 454-466
    Abstract: To meet the COP15 biodiversity framework in the European Union (EU), one target is to protect 30% of its land by 2030 through a resilient transnational conservation network. The European Alps are a key hub of this network hosting some of the most extensive natural areas and biodiversity hotspots in Europe. Here we assess the robustness of the current European reserve network to safeguard the European Alps’ flora by 2080 using semi-mechanistic simulations. We first highlight that the current network needs strong readjustments as it does not capture biodiversity patterns as well as our conservation simulations. Overall, we predict a strong shift in conservation need through time along latitudes, and from lower to higher elevations as plants migrate upslope and shrink their distribution. While increasing species, trait and evolutionary diversity, migration could also threaten 70% of the resident flora. In the face of global changes, the future European reserve network will need to ensure strong elevation and latitudinal connections to complementarily protect multifaceted biodiversity beyond national borders.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2397-334X
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2024
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2879715-2
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