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  • 1
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    Online Resource
    Mitigation of SARS-CoV-2 transmission at a large public university
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2022
    In:  Nature Communications Vol. 13, No. 1 ( 2022-06-09)
    Details
    In: Nature Communications, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 13, No. 1 ( 2022-06-09)
    Abstract: In Fall 2020, universities saw extensive transmission of SARS-CoV-2 among their populations, threatening health of the university and surrounding communities, and viability of in-person instruction. Here we report a case study at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, where a multimodal “SHIELD: Target, Test, and Tell” program, with other non-pharmaceutical interventions, was employed to keep classrooms and laboratories open. The program included epidemiological modeling and surveillance, fast/frequent testing using a novel low-cost and scalable saliva-based RT-qPCR assay for SARS-CoV-2 that bypasses RNA extraction, called covidSHIELD, and digital tools for communication and compliance. In Fall 2020, we performed 〉 1,000,000 covidSHIELD tests, positivity rates remained low, we had zero COVID-19-related hospitalizations or deaths amongst our university community, and mortality in the surrounding Champaign County was reduced more than 4-fold relative to expected. This case study shows that fast/frequent testing and other interventions mitigated transmission of SARS-CoV-2 at a large public university.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2041-1723
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30833-3
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2022
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  • 2
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    An assessment of global and regional sea level for years 1993–2007 in a suite of interannual CORE-II simulations
    Elsevier BV ; 2014
    In:  Ocean Modelling Vol. 78 ( 2014-06), p. 35-89
    Details
    In: Ocean Modelling, Elsevier BV, Vol. 78 ( 2014-06), p. 35-89
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1463-5003
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2014.03.004
    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 2014
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1126496-2
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1498544-5
    SSG: 14
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  • 3
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    The interpretation of temperature and salinity variables in numerical ocean model output and the calculation of heat fluxes and heat content
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2021
    In:  Geoscientific Model Development Vol. 14, No. 10 ( 2021-10-25), p. 6445-6466
    Details
    In: Geoscientific Model Development, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 14, No. 10 ( 2021-10-25), p. 6445-6466
    Abstract: Abstract. The international Thermodynamic Equation of Seawater 2010 (TEOS-10) defined the enthalpy and entropy of seawater, thus enabling the global ocean heat content to be calculated as the volume integral of the product of in situ density, ρ, and potential enthalpy, h0 (with reference sea pressure of 0 dbar). In terms of Conservative Temperature, Θ, ocean heat content is the volume integral of ρcp0Θ, where cp0 is a constant “isobaric heat capacity”. However, many ocean models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) as well as all models that contributed to earlier phases, such as CMIP5, CMIP3, CMIP2, and CMIP1, used EOS-80 (Equation of State – 1980) rather than the updated TEOS-10, so the question arises of how the salinity and temperature variables in these models should be physically interpreted, with a particular focus on comparison to TEOS-10-compliant observations. In this article we address how heat content, surface heat fluxes, and the meridional heat transport are best calculated using output from these models and how these quantities should be compared with those calculated from corresponding observations. We conclude that even though a model uses the EOS-80, which expects potential temperature as its input temperature, the most appropriate interpretation of the model's temperature variable is actually Conservative Temperature. This perhaps unexpected interpretation is needed to ensure that the air–sea heat flux that leaves and arrives in atmosphere and sea ice models is the same as that which arrives in and leaves the ocean model. We also show that the salinity variable carried by present TEOS-10-based models is Preformed Salinity, while the salinity variable of EOS-80-based models is also proportional to Preformed Salinity. These interpretations of the salinity and temperature variables in ocean models are an update on the comprehensive Griffies et al. (2016) paper that discusses the interpretation of many aspects of coupled Earth system models.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1991-9603
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/gmd-14-6445-2021
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2456725-5
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  • 4
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    Challenges in Quantifying Changes in the Global Water Cycle
    American Meteorological Society ; 2015
    In:  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 96, No. 7 ( 2015-07-01), p. 1097-1115
    Details
    In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 96, No. 7 ( 2015-07-01), p. 1097-1115
    Abstract: Understanding observed changes to the global water cycle is key to predicting future climate changes and their impacts. While many datasets document crucial variables such as precipitation, ocean salinity, runoff, and humidity, most are uncertain for determining long-term changes. In situ networks provide long time series over land, but are sparse in many regions, particularly the tropics. Satellite and reanalysis datasets provide global coverage, but their long-term stability is lacking. However, comparisons of changes among related variables can give insights into the robustness of observed changes. For example, ocean salinity, interpreted with an understanding of ocean processes, can help cross-validate precipitation. Observational evidence for human influences on the water cycle is emerging, but uncertainties resulting from internal variability and observational errors are too large to determine whether the observed and simulated changes are consistent. Improvements to the in situ and satellite observing networks that monitor the changing water cycle are required, yet continued data coverage is threatened by funding reductions. Uncertainty both in the role of anthropogenic aerosols and because of the large climate variability presently limits confidence in attribution of observed changes.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0003-0007 , 1520-0477
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00212.1
    DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00212.2
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2015
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  • 5
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    OMIP contribution to CMIP6: experimental and diagnostic protocol for the physical component of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2016
    In:  Geoscientific Model Development Vol. 9, No. 9 ( 2016-09-19), p. 3231-3296
    Details
    In: Geoscientific Model Development, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 9, No. 9 ( 2016-09-19), p. 3231-3296
    Abstract: Abstract. The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) is an endorsed project in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). OMIP addresses CMIP6 science questions, investigating the origins and consequences of systematic model biases. It does so by providing a framework for evaluating (including assessment of systematic biases), understanding, and improving ocean, sea-ice, tracer, and biogeochemical components of climate and earth system models contributing to CMIP6. Among the WCRP Grand Challenges in climate science (GCs), OMIP primarily contributes to the regional sea level change and near-term (climate/decadal) prediction GCs.OMIP provides (a) an experimental protocol for global ocean/sea-ice models run with a prescribed atmospheric forcing; and (b) a protocol for ocean diagnostics to be saved as part of CMIP6. We focus here on the physical component of OMIP, with a companion paper (Orr et al., 2016) detailing methods for the inert chemistry and interactive biogeochemistry. The physical portion of the OMIP experimental protocol follows the interannual Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). Since 2009, CORE-I (Normal Year Forcing) and CORE-II (Interannual Forcing) have become the standard methods to evaluate global ocean/sea-ice simulations and to examine mechanisms for forced ocean climate variability. The OMIP diagnostic protocol is relevant for any ocean model component of CMIP6, including the DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments), historical simulations, FAFMIP (Flux Anomaly Forced MIP), C4MIP (Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate MIP), DAMIP (Detection and Attribution MIP), DCPP (Decadal Climate Prediction Project), ScenarioMIP, HighResMIP (High Resolution MIP), as well as the ocean/sea-ice OMIP simulations.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1991-9603
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/gmd-9-3231-2016
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2016
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2456725-5
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  • 6
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    Industrial-era global ocean heat uptake doubles in recent decades
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2016
    In:  Nature Climate Change Vol. 6, No. 4 ( 2016-4), p. 394-398
    Details
    In: Nature Climate Change, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 6, No. 4 ( 2016-4), p. 394-398
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1758-678X , 1758-6798
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2915
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2016
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2603450-5
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  • 7
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    Ocean Salinities Reveal Strong Global Water Cycle Intensification During 1950 to 2000
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) ; 2012
    In:  Science Vol. 336, No. 6080 ( 2012-04-27), p. 455-458
    Details
    In: Science, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), Vol. 336, No. 6080 ( 2012-04-27), p. 455-458
    Abstract: Fundamental thermodynamics and climate models suggest that dry regions will become drier and wet regions will become wetter in response to warming. Efforts to detect this long-term response in sparse surface observations of rainfall and evaporation remain ambiguous. We show that ocean salinity patterns express an identifiable fingerprint of an intensifying water cycle. Our 50-year observed global surface salinity changes, combined with changes from global climate models, present robust evidence of an intensified global water cycle at a rate of 8 ± 5% per degree of surface warming. This rate is double the response projected by current-generation climate models and suggests that a substantial (16 to 24%) intensification of the global water cycle will occur in a future 2° to 3° warmer world.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0036-8075 , 1095-9203
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1126/science.1212222
    RVK:
    TA 1000
    RVK:
    WA 15000
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Publication Date: 2012
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2066996-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2060783-0
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  • 8
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    Moving beyond the Total Sea Ice Extent in Gauging Model Biases
    American Meteorological Society ; 2016
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 29, No. 24 ( 2016-12-15), p. 8965-8987
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 29, No. 24 ( 2016-12-15), p. 8965-8987
    Abstract: Reproducing characteristics of observed sea ice extent remains an important climate modeling challenge. This study describes several approaches to improve how model biases in total sea ice distribution are quantified, and applies them to historically forced simulations contributed to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The quantity of hemispheric total sea ice area, or some measure of its equatorward extent, is often used to evaluate model performance. A new approach is introduced that investigates additional details about the structure of model errors, with an aim to reduce the potential impact of compensating errors when gauging differences between simulated and observed sea ice. Using multiple observational datasets, several new methods are applied to evaluate the climatological spatial distribution and the annual cycle of sea ice cover in 41 CMIP5 models. It is shown that in some models, error compensation can be substantial, for example resulting from too much sea ice in one region and too little in another. Error compensation tends to be larger in models that agree more closely with the observed total sea ice area, which may result from model tuning. The results herein suggest that consideration of only the total hemispheric sea ice area or extent can be misleading when quantitatively comparing how well models agree with observations. Further work is needed to fully develop robust methods to holistically evaluate the ability of models to capture the finescale structure of sea ice characteristics; however, the “sector scale” metric used here aids in reducing the impact of compensating errors in hemispheric integrals.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0026.1
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0026.s1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2016
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 9
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    Competing Influences of Anthropogenic Warming, ENSO, and Plant Physiology on Future Terrestrial Aridity
    American Meteorological Society ; 2017
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 30, No. 17 ( 2017-09), p. 6883-6904
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 30, No. 17 ( 2017-09), p. 6883-6904
    Abstract: The 2011–16 California drought illustrates that drought-prone areas do not always experience relief once a favorable phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) returns. In the twenty-first century, such an expectation is unrealistic in regions where global warming induces an increase in terrestrial aridity larger than the changes in aridity driven by ENSO variability. This premise is also flawed in areas where precipitation supply cannot offset the global warming–induced increase in evaporative demand. Here, atmosphere-only experiments are analyzed to identify land regions where aridity is currently sensitive to ENSO and where projected future changes in mean aridity exceed the range caused by ENSO variability. Insights into the drivers of these changes in aridity are obtained using simulations with the incremental addition of three different factors to the current climate: ocean warming, vegetation response to elevated CO 2 levels, and intensified CO 2 radiative forcing. The effect of ocean warming overwhelms the range of ENSO-driven temperature variability worldwide, increasing potential evapotranspiration (PET) in most ENSO-sensitive regions. Additionally, about 39% of the regions currently sensitive to ENSO will likely receive less precipitation in the future, independent of the ENSO phase. Consequently aridity increases in 67%–72% of the ENSO-sensitive area. When both radiative and physiological effects are considered, the area affected by arid conditions rises to 75%–79% when using PET-derived measures of aridity, but declines to 41% when an aridity indicator for total soil moisture is employed. This reduction mainly occurs because plant stomatal resistance increases under enhanced CO 2 concentrations, resulting in improved plant water-use efficiency, and hence reduced evapotranspiration and soil desiccation. Imposing CO 2 -invariant stomatal resistance may overestimate future drying in PET-derived indices.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0005.1
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0005.s1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
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  • 10
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    Climate Drift in the CMIP3 Models
    American Meteorological Society ; 2012
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 25, No. 13 ( 2012-07-01), p. 4621-4640
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 25, No. 13 ( 2012-07-01), p. 4621-4640
    Abstract: Even in the absence of external forcing, climate models often exhibit long-term trends that cannot be attributed to natural variability. This so-called climate drift arises for various reasons including the following: perturbations to the climate system on coupling component models together and deficiencies in model physics and numerics. When examining trends in historical or future climate simulations, it is important to know the error introduced by drift so that action can be taken where necessary. This study assesses the importance of drift for a number of climate properties at global and local scales. To illustrate this, the present paper focuses on simulated trends over the second half of the twentieth century. While drift in globally averaged surface properties is generally considerably smaller than observed and simulated twentieth-century trends, it can still introduce nontrivial errors in some models. Furthermore, errors become increasingly important at smaller scales. The direction of drift is not systematic across different models or variables, as such drift is considerably reduced in the multimodel mean. Despite drift being primarily associated with ocean adjustment, it is also apparent in atmospheric variables. For example, most models have local drift magnitudes in surface air and ocean temperatures that are typically between 15% and 35% of the twentieth-century simulation trend magnitudes for 1950–2000. Below depths of 1000–2000 m, drift dominates over any forced trend in most regions. As such steric sea level is strongly affected and for some models and regions the sea level trend direction is reversed. Thus depending on the application, drift may be negligible or may make up an important part of the simulated trend.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00312.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2012
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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