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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2015
    In:  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 96, No. 6 ( 2015-06-01), p. 921-938
    In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 96, No. 6 ( 2015-06-01), p. 921-938
    Abstract: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring mode of tropical Pacific variability, with global impacts on society and natural ecosystems. While it has long been known that El Niño events display a diverse range of amplitudes, triggers, spatial patterns, and life cycles, the realization that ENSO’s impacts can be highly sensitive to this event-to-event diversity is driving a renewed interest in the subject. This paper surveys our current state of knowledge of ENSO diversity, identifies key gaps in understanding, and outlines some promising future research directions.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0003-0007 , 1520-0477
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2015
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2029396-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 419957-1
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  • 2
    In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 100, No. 10 ( 2019-10), p. 2043-2060
    Abstract: The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) is a multimodel subseasonal prediction experiment designed around operational requirements with the goal of improving subseasonal forecasts. Seven global models have produced 17 years of retrospective (re)forecasts and more than a year of weekly real-time forecasts. The reforecasts and forecasts are archived at the Data Library of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, providing a comprehensive database for research on subseasonal to seasonal predictability and predictions. The SubX models show skill for temperature and precipitation 3 weeks ahead of time in specific regions. The SubX multimodel ensemble mean is more skillful than any individual model overall. Skill in simulating the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), two sources of subseasonal predictability, is also evaluated, with skillful predictions of the MJO 4 weeks in advance and of the NAO 2 weeks in advance. SubX is also able to make useful contributions to operational forecast guidance at the Climate Prediction Center. Additionally, SubX provides information on the potential for extreme precipitation associated with tropical cyclones, which can help emergency management and aid organizations to plan for disasters.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0003-0007 , 1520-0477
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2029396-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 419957-1
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2019
    In:  Meteorological Monographs Vol. 59 ( 2019-01-01), p. 8.1-8.57
    In: Meteorological Monographs, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 59 ( 2019-01-01), p. 8.1-8.57
    Abstract: In situ observation networks and reanalyses products of the state of the atmosphere and upper ocean show well-defined, large-scale patterns of coupled climate variability on time scales ranging from seasons to several decades. We summarize these phenomena and their physics, which have been revealed by analysis of observations, by experimentation with uncoupled and coupled atmosphere and ocean models with a hierarchy of complexity, and by theoretical developments. We start with a discussion of the seasonal cycle in the equatorial tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, which are clearly affected by coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean. We then discuss the tropical phenomena that only exist because of the coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean: the Pacific and Atlantic meridional modes, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific, and a phenomenon analogous to ENSO in the Atlantic. For ENSO, we further discuss the sources of irregularity and asymmetry between warm and cold phases of ENSO, and the response of ENSO to forcing. Fundamental to variability on all time scales in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are preferred patterns of uncoupled atmospheric variability that exist independent of any changes in the state of the ocean, land, or distribution of sea ice. These patterns include the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), and the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern; they are most active in wintertime, with a temporal spectrum that is nearly white. Stochastic variability in the NPO, PNA, and NAO force the ocean on days to interannual times scales by way of turbulent heat exchange and Ekman transport, and on decadal and longer time scales by way of wind stress forcing. The PNA is partially responsible for the Pacific decadal oscillation; the NAO is responsible for an analogous phenomenon in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. In models, stochastic forcing by the NAO also gives rise to variability in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) that is partially responsible for multidecadal anomalies in the North Atlantic climate known as the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO); observations do not yet exist to adequately determine the physics of the AMO. We review the progress that has been made in the past 50 years in understanding each of these phenomena and the implications for short-term (seasonal-to-interannual) climate forecasts. We end with a brief discussion of advances of things that are on the horizon, under the rug, and over the rainbow.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0065-9401
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 416187-7
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2630885-X
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  • 4
    In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 101, No. 9 ( 2020-09), p. 767-770
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0003-0007 , 1520-0477
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2029396-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 419957-1
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  • 5
    In: Concurrency and Computation: Practice and Experience, Wiley, Vol. 29, No. 2 ( 2017-01-25)
    Abstract: In Autumn 2013, we—an international team of climate scientists, computer scientists, eScience researchers, and e‐Infrastructure specialists—participated in the enlighten your research global competition, organized to showcase advanced lightpath technologies in support of state‐of‐the‐art research questions. As one of the winning entries, our enlighten your research global team embarked on a very ambitious project to run an extremely high resolution climate model on a collection of supercomputers distributed over two continents and connected using an advanced 10 G lightpath networking infrastructure. Although good progress was made, we were not able to perform all desired experiments due to a varying combination of technical problems, configuration issues, policy limitations and lack of (budget for) human resources to solve these issues. In this paper, we describe our goals, the technical and non‐technical barriers, we encountered and provide recommendations on how these barriers can be removed so future project of this kind may succeed. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1532-0626 , 1532-0634
    URL: Issue
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2052606-4
    SSG: 11
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2021
    In:  Scientific Reports Vol. 11, No. 1 ( 2021-03-18)
    In: Scientific Reports, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 11, No. 1 ( 2021-03-18)
    Abstract: Quasi-decadal climate of the Kuroshio Extension (KE) is pivotal to understanding the North Pacific coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics and their predictability. Recent observational studies suggest that extratropical-tropical coupling between the KE and the central tropical Pacific El Niño Southern Oscillation (CP-ENSO) leads to the observed preferred decadal time-scale of Pacific climate variability. By combining reanalysis data with numerical simulations from a high-resolution climate model and a linear inverse model (LIM), we confirm that KE and CP-ENSO dynamics are linked through extratropical-tropical teleconnections. Specifically, the atmospheric response to the KE excites Meridional Modes that energize the CP-ENSO (extratropicstropics), and in turn, CP-ENSO teleconnections energize the extratropical atmospheric forcing of the KE (tropicsextratropics). However, both observations and the model show that the KE/CP-ENSO coupling is non-stationary and has intensified in recent decades after the mid-1980. Given the short length of the observational and climate model record, it is difficult to attribute this shift to anthropogenic forcing. However, using a large-ensemble of the LIM we show that the intensification in the KE/CP-ENSO coupling after the mid-1980 is significant and linked to changes in the KE atmospheric downstream response, which exhibit a stronger imprint on the subtropical winds that excite the Pacific Meridional modes and CP-ENSO.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2045-2322
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2615211-3
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2019
    In:  Climate Dynamics Vol. 52, No. 12 ( 2019-6), p. 7133-7133
    In: Climate Dynamics, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 52, No. 12 ( 2019-6), p. 7133-7133
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0930-7575 , 1432-0894
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 382992-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1471747-5
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 8
    In: Weather and Forecasting, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 38, No. 3 ( 2023-03), p. 389-390
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0882-8156 , 1520-0434
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2025194-4
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  • 9
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 36, No. 7 ( 2023-04-01), p. 1981-2013
    Abstract: Two decades of high-resolution satellite observations and climate modeling studies have indicated strong ocean–atmosphere coupled feedback mediated by ocean mesoscale processes, including semipermanent and meandrous SST fronts, mesoscale eddies, and filaments. The air–sea exchanges in latent heat, sensible heat, momentum, and carbon dioxide associated with this so-called mesoscale air–sea interaction are robust near the major western boundary currents, Southern Ocean fronts, and equatorial and coastal upwelling zones, but they are also ubiquitous over the global oceans wherever ocean mesoscale processes are active. Current theories, informed by rapidly advancing observational and modeling capabilities, have established the importance of mesoscale and frontal-scale air–sea interaction processes for understanding large-scale ocean circulation, biogeochemistry, and weather and climate variability. However, numerous challenges remain to accurately diagnose, observe, and simulate mesoscale air–sea interaction to quantify its impacts on large-scale processes. This article provides a comprehensive review of key aspects pertinent to mesoscale air–sea interaction, synthesizes current understanding with remaining gaps and uncertainties, and provides recommendations on theoretical, observational, and modeling strategies for future air–sea interaction research. Significance Statement Recent high-resolution satellite observations and climate models have shown a significant impact of coupled ocean–atmosphere interactions mediated by small-scale (mesoscale) ocean processes, including ocean eddies and fronts, on Earth’s climate. Ocean mesoscale-induced spatial temperature and current variability modulate the air–sea exchanges in heat, momentum, and mass (e.g., gases such as water vapor and carbon dioxide), altering coupled boundary layer processes. Studies suggest that skillful simulations and predictions of ocean circulation, biogeochemistry, and weather events and climate variability depend on accurate representation of the eddy-mediated air–sea interaction. However, numerous challenges remain in accurately diagnosing, observing, and simulating mesoscale air–sea interaction to quantify its large-scale impacts. This article synthesizes the latest understanding of mesoscale air–sea interaction, identifies remaining gaps and uncertainties, and provides recommendations on strategies for future ocean–weather–climate research.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    RVK:
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 10
    In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 101, No. 6 ( 2020-06-01), p. E869-E896
    Abstract: Weather and climate variations on subseasonal to decadal time scales can have enormous social, economic, and environmental impacts, making skillful predictions on these time scales a valuable tool for decision-makers. As such, there is a growing interest in the scientific, operational, and applications communities in developing forecasts to improve our foreknowledge of extreme events. On subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales, these include high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, floods, droughts, and heat and cold waves. On seasonal to decadal (S2D) time scales, while the focus broadly remains similar (e.g., on precipitation, surface and upper-ocean temperatures, and their effects on the probabilities of high-impact meteorological events), understanding the roles of internal variability and externally forced variability such as anthropogenic warming in forecasts also becomes important. The S2S and S2D communities share common scientific and technical challenges. These include forecast initialization and ensemble generation; initialization shock and drift; understanding the onset of model systematic errors; bias correction, calibration, and forecast quality assessment; model resolution; atmosphere–ocean coupling; sources and expectations for predictability; and linking research, operational forecasting, and end-user needs. In September 2018 a coordinated pair of international conferences, framed by the above challenges, was organized jointly by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). These conferences surveyed the state of S2S and S2D prediction, ongoing research, and future needs, providing an ideal basis for synthesizing current and emerging developments in these areas that promise to enhance future operational services. This article provides such a synthesis.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0003-0007 , 1520-0477
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2029396-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 419957-1
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