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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) ; 2020
    In:  Science Vol. 368, No. 6488 ( 2020-04-17), p. 314-318
    In: Science, American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), Vol. 368, No. 6488 ( 2020-04-17), p. 314-318
    Abstract: Severe and persistent 21st-century drought in southwestern North America (SWNA) motivates comparisons to medieval megadroughts and questions about the role of anthropogenic climate change. We use hydrological modeling and new 1200-year tree-ring reconstructions of summer soil moisture to demonstrate that the 2000–2018 SWNA drought was the second driest 19-year period since 800 CE, exceeded only by a late-1500s megadrought. The megadrought-like trajectory of 2000–2018 soil moisture was driven by natural variability superimposed on drying due to anthropogenic warming. Anthropogenic trends in temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation estimated from 31 climate models account for 46% (model interquartiles of 34 to 103%) of the 2000–2018 drought severity, pushing an otherwise moderate drought onto a trajectory comparable to the worst SWNA megadroughts since 800 CE.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0036-8075 , 1095-9203
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    Language: English
    Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Publication Date: 2020
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ; 2019
    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 116, No. 38 ( 2019-09-17), p. 18848-18853
    In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 116, No. 38 ( 2019-09-17), p. 18848-18853
    Abstract: Compound extremes such as cooccurring soil drought (low soil moisture) and atmospheric aridity (high vapor pressure deficit) can be disastrous for natural and societal systems. Soil drought and atmospheric aridity are 2 main physiological stressors driving widespread vegetation mortality and reduced terrestrial carbon uptake. Here, we empirically demonstrate that strong negative coupling between soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit occurs globally, indicating high probability of cooccurring soil drought and atmospheric aridity. Using the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE)-CMIP5 experiment, we further show that concurrent soil drought and atmospheric aridity are greatly exacerbated by land–atmosphere feedbacks. The feedback of soil drought on the atmosphere is largely responsible for enabling atmospheric aridity extremes. In addition, the soil moisture–precipitation feedback acts to amplify precipitation and soil moisture deficits in most regions. CMIP5 models further show that the frequency of concurrent soil drought and atmospheric aridity enhanced by land–atmosphere feedbacks is projected to increase in the 21st century. Importantly, land–atmosphere feedbacks will greatly increase the intensity of both soil drought and atmospheric aridity beyond that expected from changes in mean climate alone.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-8424 , 1091-6490
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    Language: English
    Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Publication Date: 2019
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  • 3
    In: American Journal of Botany, Wiley, Vol. 100, No. 7 ( 2013-07), p. 1407-1421
    Abstract: • Premise of the study: The study of how phenology may contribute to the assembly of plant communities has a long history in ecology. Climate change has brought renewed interest in this area, with many studies examining how phenology may contribute to the success of exotic species. In particular, there is increasing evidence that exotic species occupy unique phenological niches and track climate change more closely than native species. • Methods: Here, we use long‐term records of species’ first flowering dates from five northern hemisphere temperate sites (Chinnor, UK and in the United States, Concord, Massachusetts; Fargo, North Dakota; Konza Prairie, Kansas; and Washington, D.C.) to examine whether invaders have distinct phenologies. Using a broad phylogenetic framework, we tested for differences between exotic and native species in mean annual flowering time, phenological changes in response to temperature and precipitation, and longer‐term shifts in first flowering dates during recent pronounced climate change (“flowering time shifts”). • Key results: Across North American sites, exotic species have shifted flowering with climate change while native species, on average, have not. In the three mesic systems, exotic species exhibited higher tracking of interannual variation in temperature, such that flowering advances more with warming, than native species. Across the two grassland systems, however, exotic species differed from native species primarily in responses to precipitation and soil moisture, not temperature. • Conclusions: Our findings provide cross‐site support for the role of phenology and climate change in explaining species’ invasions. Further, they support recent evidence that exotic species may be important drivers of extended growing seasons observed with climate change in North America.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0002-9122 , 1537-2197
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    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2013
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Wiley ; 2021
    In:  New Phytologist Vol. 229, No. 1 ( 2021-01), p. 323-334
    In: New Phytologist, Wiley, Vol. 229, No. 1 ( 2021-01), p. 323-334
    Abstract: Temperate forests are shaped by late spring freezes after budburst – false springs – which may shift with climate change. Research to date has generated conflicting results, potentially because few studies focus on the multiple underlying drivers of false spring risk. Here, we assessed the effects of mean spring temperature, distance from the coast, elevation and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) using PEP725 leafout data for six tree species across 11 648 sites in Europe, to determine which were the strongest predictors of false spring risk and how these predictors shifted with climate change. All predictors influenced false spring risk before recent warming, but their effects have shifted in both magnitude and direction with warming. These shifts have potentially magnified the variation in false spring risk among species with an increase in risk for early‐leafout species (i.e. Aesculus hippocastanum , Alnus glutinosa , Betula pendula ) compared with a decline or no change in risk among late‐leafout species (i.e. Fagus sylvatica , Fraxinus excelsior , Quercus robur ). Our results show how climate change has reshaped the drivers of false spring risk, complicating forecasts of future false springs, and potentially reshaping plant community dynamics given uneven shifts in risk across species.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0028-646X , 1469-8137
    URL: Issue
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2021
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  • 5
    In: Journal of Ecology, Wiley, Vol. 111, No. 2 ( 2023-02), p. 327-337
    Abstract: A fenologia das plantas tem mudado dramaticamente em resposta às mudanças climáticas, o que pode ter consequências ecológicas significativas e generalizadas. Os biomas tropicais são particularmente preocupantes, pois representam as regiões mais biodiversas e ameaçadas do mundo. No entanto, em comparação com as floras temperadas, sabemos pouco sobre as respostas fenológicas das plantas tropicais porque os conjuntos de dados observacionais de longo prazo nos trópicos são escassos. Espécimes de herbário têm contribuído muito para o conhecimento fenológico em regiões temperadas, mas dados desse tipo têm sido subutilizados nos trópicos e sua adequação para esse fim não foi amplamente validada. Aqui, comparamos estimativas fenológicas derivadas de dados observacionais de pesquisas de campo com espécimes de herbário em várias escalas espaciais e taxonômicas para determinar se esses últimos podem fornecer estimativas precisas dos períodos reprodutivos e sua variação espacial. Demonstramos aqui que as estimativas fenológicas baseadas em observações de campo e em espécimes de herbário coincidem bem. Menos de 5% das espécies exibiram diferenças significativas entre os períodos de floração inferidos a partir de observações de campo versus espécimes de herbário, independentemente da agregação espacial. Em contraste com os estudos baseados em registros de campo, os espécimes de herbário amostraram extensões geográficas e climáticas muito maiores, como foi documentado anteriormente para plantas temperadas, e capturaram com eficácia respostas fenológicas em ambientes variados. Síntese . Espécimes de herbário demonstraram ser um recurso vital para preencher a lacuna em nosso conhecimento fenológico sobre sistemas tropicais. A fenologia reprodutiva de plantas tropicais inferida a partir de registros de herbários é amplamente congruente com observações de campo, sugerindo que elas podem e devem ser usadas para investigar a variação fenológica e seus gatilhos ambientais de forma mais ampla nos biomas tropicais.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0022-0477 , 1365-2745
    URL: Issue
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2023
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  • 6
    In: Ecosystems, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 15, No. 8 ( 2012-12), p. 1283-1294
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1432-9840 , 1435-0629
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2012
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1478731-3
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ; 2009
    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 106, No. 13 ( 2009-03-31), p. 4997-5001
    In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, No. 13 ( 2009-03-31), p. 4997-5001
    Abstract: The “Dust Bowl” drought of the 1930s was highly unusual for North America, deviating from the typical pattern forced by “La Nina” with the maximum drying in the central and northern Plains, warm temperature anomalies across almost the entire continent, and widespread dust storms. General circulation models (GCMs), forced by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the 1930s, produce a drought, but one that is centered in southwestern North America and without the warming centered in the middle of the continent. Here, we show that the inclusion of forcing from human land degradation during the period, in addition to the anomalous SSTs, is necessary to reproduce the anomalous features of the Dust Bowl drought. The degradation over the Great Plains is represented in the GCM as a reduction in vegetation cover and the addition of a soil dust aerosol source, both consequences of crop failure. As a result of land surface feedbacks, the simulation of the drought is much improved when the new dust aerosol and vegetation boundary conditions are included. Vegetation reductions explain the high temperature anomaly over the northern U.S., and the dust aerosols intensify the drought and move it northward of the purely ocean-forced drought pattern. When both factors are included in the model simulations, the precipitation and temperature anomalies are of similar magnitude and in a similar location compared with the observations. Human-induced land degradation is likely to have not only contributed to the dust storms of the 1930s but also amplified the drought, and these together turned a modest SST-forced drought into one of the worst environmental disasters the U.S. has experienced.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-8424 , 1091-6490
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    Language: English
    Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Publication Date: 2009
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ; 2020
    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 117, No. 6 ( 2020-02-11), p. 2864-2869
    In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 117, No. 6 ( 2020-02-11), p. 2864-2869
    Abstract: Agrobiodiversity—the variation within agricultural plants, animals, and practices—is often suggested as a way to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on crops [S. A. Wood et al. , Trends Ecol. Evol. 30, 531–539 (2015)]. Recently, increasing research and attention has focused on exploiting the intraspecific genetic variation within a crop [Hajjar et al. , Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 123, 261–270 (2008)], despite few relevant tests of how this diversity modifies agricultural forecasts. Here, we quantify how intraspecific diversity, via cultivars, changes global projections of growing areas. We focus on a crop that spans diverse climates, has the necessary records, and is clearly impacted by climate change: winegrapes (predominantly Vitis vinifera subspecies vinifera ). We draw on long-term French records to extrapolate globally for 11 cultivars (varieties) with high diversity in a key trait for climate change adaptation—phenology. We compared scenarios where growers shift to more climatically suitable cultivars as the climate warms or do not change cultivars. We find that cultivar diversity more than halved projected losses of current winegrowing areas under a 2 °C warming scenario, decreasing areas lost from 56 to 24%. These benefits are more muted at higher warming scenarios, reducing areas lost by a third at 4 °C (85% versus 58%). Our results support the potential of in situ shifting of cultivars to adapt agriculture to climate change—including in major winegrowing regions—as long as efforts to avoid higher warming scenarios are successful.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-8424 , 1091-6490
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    Language: English
    Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 209104-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1461794-8
    SSG: 11
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Oxford University Press (OUP) ; 2019
    In:  Journal of Plant Ecology Vol. 12, No. 3 ( 2019-05-15), p. 542-549
    In: Journal of Plant Ecology, Oxford University Press (OUP), Vol. 12, No. 3 ( 2019-05-15), p. 542-549
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1752-993X
    Language: English
    Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
    Publication Date: 2019
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  • 10
    In: Global Change Biology, Wiley, Vol. 17, No. 12 ( 2011-12), p. 3633-3643
    Abstract: Forecasting how species and ecosystems will respond to climate change has been a major aim of ecology in recent years. Much of this research has focused on phenology – the timing of life‐history events. Phenology has well‐demonstrated links to climate, from genetic to landscape scales; yet our ability to explain and predict variation in phenology across species, habitats and time remains poor. Here, we outline how merging approaches from ecology, climate science and evolutionary biology can advance research on phenological responses to climate variability. Using insight into seasonal and interannual climate variability combined with niche theory and community phylogenetics, we develop a predictive approach for species’ reponses to changing climate. Our approach predicts that species occupying higher latitudes or the early growing season should be most sensitive to climate and have the most phylogenetically conserved phenologies. We further predict that temperate species will respond to climate change by shifting in time, while tropical species will respond by shifting space, or by evolving. Although we focus here on plant phenology, our approach is broadly applicable to ecological research of plant responses to climate variability.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1354-1013 , 1365-2486
    URL: Issue
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2011
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