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  • 1
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    Late Quaternary Climate Reconstruction and Lead-Lag Relationships of Biotic and Sediment-Geochemical Indicators at Lake Bolshoe Toko, Siberia (2021)
    Frontiers
    In:  EPIC3Frontiers in Earth Science, Frontiers, 9, ISSN: 2296-6463
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-06-14
    Description: Millennial-scale climate change history in eastern Siberia and relationships between diatom diversity, paleoclimate, and sediment-geochemical lake system trajectories are still poorly understood. This study investigates multi-proxy time series reaching back to the Late Pleistocene derived from radiocarbon dated Lake Bolshoe Toko sediment cores, southeastern Yakutia, Russia. We analyzed diatoms, elements (XRF), minerals (XRD), grain-size, organic carbon, and included chironomid analyses and published pollen-data for quantitative paleoclimate reconstruction. Changes in diatom species abundances reveal repeated episodes of thermal stratification indicated by shifts from euplanktonic Aulacoseira to Cyclotella species. Chironomid and pollen-inferred temperature reconstruction reveal that the main shift between these diatom species is related to the onset of Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) at 7.1 cal ka BP. Comparison to other paleoclimate records along a north-south transect through Yakutia shows that the HTM was delayed as far south as the Stanovoy mountains. Relationships between sediment-geochemistry, paleoclimate variability and diatom species richness (alpha diversity) was tested in a moving temporal offset approach to detect lead-lag relationships. Sediment-geochemical data, mainly uniform during the Holocene, revealed strongest positive or negative correlations ahead of species richness changes. Mean July air temperature (TJuly) reconstructions correlate with both Hill numbers and relative assemblage changes indicated by sample scores of multidimensional scaling analysis (MDS) over the entire time series. We found that sediment organic carbon revealed distinct positive correlations, i.e., centennial-scale delay to increases in diatom effective richness (Hill numbers N0 and N2). We conclude that a lag of deposited organic carbon concentrations behind changes in diatom alpha diversity reveals that species richness can augment the production and thus sequestration of organic matter in comparable lake systems.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 2
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    Microbial communities under distinct thermal and geochemical regimes in axial and off-axis sediments of Guaymas Basin (2021)
    Frontiers
    In:  EPIC3Frontiers in microbiology, Frontiers, 12, pp. 110
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-10-20
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 3
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    Editorial: Adaptation and phenotypic plasticity to climate change. (2022)
    Frontiers
    In:  EPIC3Frontiers in Marine Science, Frontiers, 9(893117)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-04-25
    Description: Anthropogenic activities are driving rapid changes in aquatic environments. Numerous studies suggest that climatic shifts and anomalies will convey severe consequences for ecosystems worldwide, leading to disruptions in key processes within populations including larval development, individual growth, and reproductive success. This is further exacerbated by the negative impacts on between-species interactions, and changes to biodiversity and ecosystem services (Munday et al., 2013). Understanding the responses of organisms to environmental shifts is imperative to help predict their fate on a changing planet. Particularly, the capacity of individuals and populations to cope through phenotypic plasticity and adaptation is of critical interest, with advances in genomics and epigenomics techniques helping to unveil the underlying molecular mechanisms (Eirin-Lopez and Putnam, 2019). However, major knowledge gaps remain about the adaptive potential of marine organisms to respond to future ocean conditions. The aim of this Research Topic was to bring together novel research approaches that examine acclimation and adaptation processes in marine organisms, their role in population resilience, and implications for geographical distributions and range shifts under rapid climate change. Contributions to the topic span a broad range of taxa, and investigate a diverse array of response mechanisms such as thermal safety margins (Bennett et al.), thermotolerance via endosymbionts and gene expression (Naugle et al.), tolerance via changes in allele frequencies (Knöbel et al.), local adaptation and maternal effects (Richards et al.), transgenerational plasticity (TGP; Chang et al.), environment-dependent reproductive success (Wanzenböck et al.), and phenological shifts to long-term seasonal changes (Xia et al.). Furthermore, the importance of environmental variability (not only mean changes) at different time scales, the role of developmental or life history stage in phenotypic responses, as well as future challenges for plasticity research (both within and across generations) are outlined in Bautista and Crespel.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 4
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    The Future of the Arctic: What Does It Mean for Sea Ice and Small Creatures? (2020)
    Frontiers
    In:  Frontiers for Young Minds, 8 . Art.Nr. 97.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-01-08
    Description: The warming of our planet is changing the Arctic dramatically. The area covered by sea-ice is shrinking and the ice that is left is younger and thinner. We took part in an expedition to the Arctic, to study how these changes affect organisms living in and under the ice. Following this expedition, we found that storms can more easily break the thinner ice. Storms form cracks in the sea ice, allowing sunlight to pass into the water below, which makes algal growth possible. Algae are microscopic “plants” that grow in water or sea ice. Storms also brought thick heavy snow, which pushed the ice surface below the water. This flooded the snow and created slush. We discovered that this slush is another good habitat for algae. If Arctic sea ice continues to thin, and storms become more common, we expect that these algal habitats will become more important in the future.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.3389/frym.2020.00097
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 5
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    Dynamic Species Distribution Models in the Marine Realm: Predicting Year-Round Habitat Suitability of Baleen Whales in the Southern Ocean (2021)
    Frontiers
    In:  EPIC3Frontiers in Marine Science, Frontiers, 8(802276), ISSN: 2296-7745
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-01-04
    Description: Species distribution models (SDMs) relate species information to environmental conditions to predict potential species distributions. The majority of SDMs are static, relating species presence information to long-term average environmental conditions. The resulting temporal mismatch between species information and environmental conditions can increase model inference’s uncertainty. For SDMs to capture the dynamic species-environment relationships and predict near-real-time habitat suitability, species information needs to be spatiotemporally matched with environmental conditions contemporaneous to the species’ presence (dynamic SDMs). Implementing dynamic SDMs in the marine realm is highly challenging, particularly due to species and environmental data paucity and spatiotemporally biases. Here, we implemented presence-only dynamic SDMs for four migratory baleen whale species in the Southern Ocean (SO): Antarctic minke, Antarctic blue, fin, and humpback whales. Sightings were spatiotemporally matched with their respective daily environmental predictors. Background information was sampled daily to describe the dynamic environmental conditions in the highly dynamic SO. We corrected for spatial sampling bias by sampling background information respective to the seasonal research efforts. Independent model evaluation was performed on spatial and temporal cross-validation. We predicted the circumantarctic year-round habitat suitability of each species. Daily predictions were also summarized into bi-weekly and monthly habitat suitability. We identified important predictors and species suitability responses to environmental changes. Our results support the propitious use of dynamic SDMs to fill species information gaps and improve conservation planning strategies. Near-real-time predictions can be used for dynamic ocean management, e.g., to examine the overlap between habitat suitability and human activities. Nevertheless, the inevitable spatiotemporal biases in sighting data from the SO call for the need for improving sampling effort in the SO and using alternative data sources (e.g., passive acoustic monitoring) in future SDMs. We further discuss challenges of calibrating dynamic SDMs on baleen whale species in the SO, with a particular focus on spatiotemporal sampling bias issues and how background information should be sampled in presence-only dynamic SDMs. We also highlight the need to integrate visual and acoustic data in future SDMs on baleen whales for better coverage of environmental conditions suitable for the species and avoid constraints of using either data type alone.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , peerRev
    Format: application/pdf
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 6
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    Integrative Post-event Impact Assessment Framework for Volcanic Eruptions: A Disaster Forensic Investigation of the 2011–2012 Eruption of the Cordón Caulle Volcano (Chile) (2021)
    Frontiers
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-07
    Description: Understanding the complexity of future volcanic impacts that can be potentially induced by the large variability of volcanic hazards and the multiple dimensions of vulnerability of the increasingly interdependent and interconnected societies, requires an in-depth analysis of past events. A structured and inclusive post-event impact assessment framework is proposed and applied for the evaluation of damage and disruption on critical infrastructures caused by the eruption of the Cordón Caulle volcano (Chile) in 2011–2012. This framework is built on the forensic analysis of disasters combined with the techniques of the root cause analysis that converge in a bow-tie tool. It consists of a fault tree connected to subsequent event trees to describe the causal order of impacts. Considering the physical and systemic dimensions of vulnerability, four orders of impact have been identified: i) the first order refers to the physical damage or the primary impact on a component of the critical infrastructure; ii) the second order refers to the loss of functionality in the system due to a physical damage on key components of the system; iii) the third order refers to the systemic impact due to the interdependency and connectivity among different critical infrastructures; and iv) a higher order is related to the consequences on the main economic sectors and to social disruption that can activate an overall damage to the economy of the country or countries affected. Our study in the Argentinian Patagonia shows that the long-lasting impact of the 2011–2012 Cordón Caulle eruption is mostly due to a secondary hazard (i.e., wind remobilisation of ash), which exacerbated the primary impact affecting significantly larger areas and for longer time with respect to primary tephra deposition. In addition, systemic vulnerability, particularly the intrinsic dependencies within and among systems, played a major role in the cascading impact of the analysed communities.
    Description: This study was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (200021–163152).
    Description: Published
    Description: 645945
    Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: impact assessment ; volcanic eruptions ; forensic analysis ; systemic vulnerability ; cascading effects ; bow-tie approach ; 04.08. Volcanology ; 05.08. Risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 7
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    Testing Tsunami Inundation Maps for Evacuation Planning in Italy (2021)
    Frontiers
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-07
    Description: Inundation maps are a fundamental tool for coastal risk management and in particular for designing evacuation maps and evacuation planning. These in turn are a necessary component of the tsunami warning systems’ last-mile. In Italy inundation maps are informed by a probabilistic tsunami hazard model. Based on a given level of acceptable risk, Italian authorities in charge for this task recommended to consider, as design hazard intensity, the average return period of 2500 years and the 84th percentile of the hazard model uncertainty. An available, regional-scale tsunami hazard model was used that covers the entire Italian coastline. Safety factors based on analysis of run-up variability and an empirical coastal dissipation law on a digital terrain model (DTM) were applied to convert the regional hazard into the design run-up and the corresponding evacuation maps with a GIS-based approach. Since the regional hazard cannot fully capture the local-scale variability, this simplified and conservative approach is considered a viable and feasible practice to inform local coastal risk management in the absence of high-resolution hazard models. The present work is a first attempt to quantify the uncertainty stemming from such procedure. We compare the GIS-based inundation maps informed by a regional model with those obtained from a local high-resolution hazard model. Two locations on the coast of eastern Sicily were considered, and the local hazard was addressed with the same seismic model as the regional one, but using a higher-resolution DTM and massive numerical inundation calculations with the GPU-based Tsunami-HySEA nonlinear shallow water code. This study shows that the GIS-based inundation maps used for planning deal conservatively with potential hazard underestimation at the local scale, stemming from typically unmodeled uncertainties in the numerical source and tsunami evolution models. The GIS-based maps used for planning fall within the estimated “error-bar” due to such uncertainties. The analysis also demonstrates the need to develop local assessments to serve very specific risk mitigation actions to reduce the uncertainty. More in general, the presented case-studies highlight the importance to explore ways of dealing with uncertainty hidden within the high-resolution numerical inundation models, e.g., related to the crude parameterization of the bottom friction, or the inaccuracy of the DTM.
    Description: Published
    Description: 628061
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: tsunamis ; inundation maps ; early warning ; probabilistic hazard ; numerical modeling ; Italy
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 8
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    Extending New Zealand’s Marine Shellfish Aquaculture Into Exposed Environments – Adapting to Modern Anthropogenic Challenges (2020)
    Frontiers
    In:  EPIC3Frontiers in Marine Science, Frontiers, 7(565686), pp. 1-7
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-09-07
    Description: New Zealand has a large exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of which the area between the 30 and 50 m bathymetric zone offers the most prospects for shellfish production. Only 0.3% of this zone would be required to increase New Zealand’s shellfish production by 150,000 t. The Enabling Open Ocean Aquaculture Program, funded by the New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, is a collaboration aiming to develop technologies that will enable the extension of aquaculture into New Zealand’s harsh and challenging open ocean conditions, and facilitate adaptation to the escalating effects of climate change in inner shore environments. New Zealand has started expanding aquaculture into exposed environments, allowing farm expansion to meet increasing demand for aquaculture products but also enabling ventures into new aquatic products. Expansion into offshore developments is in direct response to mounting stakeholder interaction in inshore coastal areas. This document presents a brief overview of the potential zones for open ocean aquaculture, the influence of climate change, and two potential shellfish operational systems that may facilitate the expansion of shellfish aquaculture onto New Zealand’s exposed ocean sites.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 9
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    Practical Issues in Monitoring a Hydrocarbon Cultivation Activity in Italy: The Pilot Project at the Cavone Oil Field (2021)
    Frontiers
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-11-12
    Description: In this paper we describe the results of an experimental implementation of the recent guidelines issued by the Italian regulatory body for monitoring hydrocarbon production activities. In particular, we report about the pilot study on seismic, deformation, and pore pressure monitoring of the Mirandola hydrocarbon cultivation facility in Northern Italy. This site hosts the Cavone oil field that was speculated of possibly influencing the 2012 ML 5.8 Mirandola earthquake source. According to the guidelines, the monitoring center should analyse geophysical measurements related to seismicity, crustal deformation and pore pressure in quasi real-time (within 24–48 h). A traffic light system would then be used to regulate underground operations in case of detecting significant earthquakes (i.e., events with size and location included in critical ranges). For these 2-year period of guidelines experimentation, we analysed all different kinds of available data, and we tested the existence of possible relationship between their temporal trends. Despite the short time window and the scarce quantity of data collected, we performed the required analysis and extracted as much meaningful and statistically reliable information from the data. We discuss here the most important observations drawn from the monitoring results, and highlight the lessons learned by describing practical issues and limitations that we have encountered in carrying out the tasks as defined in the guidelines. Our main goal is to contribute to the discussion about how to better monitor the geophysical impact of this kind of anthropogenic activity. We point out the importance of a wider seismic network but, mostly, of borehole sensors to improve microseismic detection capabilities. Moreover, the lack of an assessment of background seismicity in an unperturbed situation -due to long life extraction activities- makes it difficult to get a proper picture of natural background seismic activity, which would be instead an essential reference information for a tectonically-active regions, such as Northern Italy.
    Description: “Convenzione tra il comune di San Possidonio e l’Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia -I.N.G.V.- per l’attuazione del monitoraggio nella concessione di coltivazione idrocarburi “Mirandola” finalizzata alla messa in opera di attività di monitoraggio di sperimentazione degli indirizzi e linee guida per i monitoraggi ILG ed assunzione funzioni di Struttura Preposta al Monitoraggio di cui all’art. 6 del Protocollo Operativo”
    Description: Published
    Description: 685300
    Description: 3SR TERREMOTI - Attività dei Centri
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Italian guidelines for monitoring industrial activities ; induced seismicity ; pore pressure monitoring ; deformation monitoring ; seismic monitoring ; 04.06. Seismology ; 05.09. Miscellaneous ; 04.02. Exploration geophysics ; 04.03. Geodesy
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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