Description: Predictive species distribution models are mostly based on statistical dependence between environmental and distributional data and therefore may fail to account for physiological limits and biological interactions that are fundamental when modelling species distributions under future climate conditions. Here, we developed a state-of-the-art method integrating biological theory with survey and experimental data in a way that allows us to explicitly model both physical tolerance limits of species and inherent natural variability in regional conditions and thereby improve the reliability of species distribution predictions under future climate conditions. By using a macroalga-herbivore association (Fucus vesiculosus - Idotea balthica) as a case study, we illustrated how salinity reduction and temperature increase under future climate conditions may significantly reduce the occurrence and biomass of these important coastal species. Moreover, we showed that the reduction of herbivore occurrence is linked to reduction of their host macroalgae. Spatial predictive modelling and experimental biology have been traditionally seen as separate fields but stronger interlinkages between these disciplines can improve species distribution projections under climate change. Experiments enable qualitative prior knowledge to be defined and identify cause-effect relationships, and thereby better foresee alterations in ecosystem structure and functioning under future climate conditions that are not necessarily seen in projections based on non-causal statistical relationships alone.

Description: Habitat forming ecosystem engineers play critical roles in structuring coastal seascapes. Many ecosystem engineers, such as seagrasses and epifaunal bivalves, are known to have positive effects on sediment stability and increase coastal protection and ecosystem resilience. Others, such as bioturbating infaunal bivalves, may instead destabilize sediment. However, despite the common co-occurrence of seagrasses and bivalves in coastal seascapes, little is known of their combined effects on sediment dynamics. Here, we used wave flumes to compare sediment dynamics in monospecific and multispecific treatments of eelgrass, Zostera marina, and associated bivalves (infaunal Limecola balthica, infaunal Cerastoderma edule, epifaunal Magellana gigas) under a range of wave exposures. Eelgrass reduced bedload erosion rates by 25–50%, with digital elevation models indicating that eelgrass affected the sediment micro-bathymetry by decreasing surface roughness and ripple sizes. Effects of bivalves on sediment mobilization were species-specific; L. balthica reduced erosion by 25%, C. edule increased erosion by 40%, while M. gigas had little effect. Importantly, eelgrass modified the impacts of bivalves: the destabilizing effects of C. edule vanished in the presence of eelgrass, while we found positive additive effects of eelgrass and L. balthica on sediment stabilization and potential for mutual anchoring. Such interspecific interactions are likely relevant for habitat patch emergence and resilience to extreme wave conditions. In light of future climate scenarios where increasing storm frequency and wave exposure threaten coastal ecosystems, our results add a mechanistic understanding of sediment dynamics and interactions between ecosystem engineers, with relevance for management and conservation.