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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-01-31
    Description: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) extends from the Southern Ocean to the northern North Atlantic, transporting heat northwards throughout the South and North Atlantic, and sinking carbon and nutrients into the deep ocean. Climate models indicate that changes to the AMOC both herald and drive climate shifts. Intensive trans-basin AMOC observational systems have been put in place to continuously monitor meridional volume transport variability, and in some cases, heat, freshwater and carbon transport. These observational programs have been used to diagnose the magnitude and origins of transport variability, and to investigate impacts of variability on essential climate variables such as sea surface temperature, ocean heat content and coastal sea level. AMOC observing approaches vary between the different systems, ranging from trans-basin arrays (OSNAP, RAPID 26 degrees N, 11 degrees S, SAMBA 34.5 degrees S) to arrays concentrating on western boundaries (e.g., RAPID WAVE, MOVE 16 degrees N). In this paper, we outline the different approaches (aims, strengths and limitations) and summarize the key results to date. We also discuss alternate approaches for capturing AMOC variability including direct estimates (e.g., using sea level, bottom pressure, and hydrography from autonomous profiling floats), indirect estimates applying budgetary approaches, state estimates or ocean reanalyses, and proxies. Based on the existing observations and their results, and the potential of new observational and formal synthesis approaches, we make suggestions as to how to evaluate a comprehensive, future-proof observational network of the AMOC to deepen our understanding of the AMOC and its role in global climate.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 45 (2018): 3221-3227, doi:10.1002/2017GL076821.
    Description: Global mean sea surface temperature ((T) over bar) is a variable of primary interest in studies of climate variability and change. The temporal evolution of (T) over bar) can be influenced by surface heat fluxes ((F) over bar)) and by diffusion ((D) over bar)) and advection ((A) over bar)) processes internal to the ocean, but quantifying the contribution of these different factors from data alone is prone to substantial uncertainties. Here we derive a closed (T) over bar) budget for the period 1993-2015 based on a global ocean state estimate, which is an exact solution of a general circulation model constrained to most extant ocean observations through advanced optimization methods. The estimated average temperature of the top (10-m thick) level in the model, taken to represent (T) over bar), shows relatively small variability at most time scales compared to (F) over bar), (D) over bar), or (A) over bar), reflecting the tendency for largely balancing effects from all the latter terms. The seasonal cycle in (T) over bar) is mostly determined by small imbalances between (F) over bar) and (D) over bar), with negligible contributions from (A) over bar). While (D) over bar) seems to simply damp (F) over bar) at the annual period, a different dynamical role for (D) over bar) at semiannual period is suggested by it being larger than (F) over bar). At periods longer than annual, (A) over bar) contributes importantly to (T) over bar) variability, pointing to the direct influence of the variable ocean circulation on (T) over bar) and mean surface climate. Plain Language Summary Global mean sea surface temperature (T) over bar) is a key metric when defining the Earth's climate. Determining what controls the evolution of (T) over bar )T is thus vital for understanding past climate variability and predicting its future evolution. Processes that control (T) over bar) involve forcing surface heat fluxes, as well as advection and diffusion of heat internal to the ocean, but their relative contributions are poorly known and difficult to assess from observations alone. Here we use advanced methods to combine models and data and derive a closed budget for (T) over bar) variability in terms of the forcing, advection, and diffusion processes. The estimated (T) over bar) shows relatively small variability compared to surface forcing, advection, or diffusion, reflecting the tendency for largely balancing effects from all the latter terms. The seasonal cycle in (T) over bar) is mostly determined by small imbalances between forcing and diffusion, with negligible contributions from advection. Diffusion does not always act as a simple damping of forcing surface fluxes, however. In addition, at periods longer than annual, advection contributes importantly to (T) over bar) variability. The results point to the direct influence of the variable ocean circulation on (T) over bar) and the Earth's surface climate.
    Description: NSF Grant Number: PLR-1513396
    Description: 2018-09-25
    Keywords: Sea surface temperature
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2018. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.of the United States of America 115 (2018): 7729-7734, doi:10.1073/pnas.1805428115.
    Description: Identifying physical processes responsible for historical coastal sea-level changes is important for anticipating future impacts. Recent studies sought to understand the drivers of interannual to multidecadal sea-level changes on the United States Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Ocean dynamics, terrestrial water storage, vertical land motion, and melting of land ice were highlighted as important mechanisms of sea-level change along this densely populated coast on these time scales. While known to exert an important control on coastal ocean circulation, variable river discharge has been absent from recent discussions of drivers of sea-level change. We update calculations from the 1970s, comparing annual river-discharge and coastal sea-level data along the Gulf of Maine, Mid-Atlantic Bight, South Atlantic Bight, and Gulf of Mexico during 1910–2017. We show that river-discharge and sea-level changes are significantly correlated (p〈0.01), such that sea level rises between 0.01 and 0.08 cm for a 1 km3 annual river-discharge increase, depending on region. We formulate a theory that describes the relation between river-discharge and halosteric sea-level changes (i.e., changes in sea level related to salinity) as a function of river discharge, Earth’s rotation, and density stratification. This theory correctly predicts the order of observed increment sea-level change per unit river-discharge anomaly, suggesting a causal relation. Our results have implications for remote sensing, climate modeling, interpreting Common Era proxy sea-level reconstructions, and projecting coastal flood risk.
    Description: C.G.P. and R.M.P. acknowledge support from NASA Contract NNH16CT01C (which also supported C.M.L.), NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory Subcontract 1569246, and National Science Foundation Award 1558966. C.G.P. also acknowledges support from The Investment in Science Fund at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. A.C.K. and S.E.E. acknowledge NSF Awards OCE-1458921 and OCE-1458903, respectively.
    Keywords: Coastal sea level ; Coastal river plumes ; Coastal flood risk ; Climate modeling ; Physical oceanography
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Heimbach, P., Fukumori, I., Hills, C. N., Ponte, R. M., Stammer, D., Wunsch, C., Campin, J., Cornuelle, B., Fenty, I., Forget, G., Koehl, A., Mazloff, M., Menemenlis, D., Nguyen, A. T., Piecuch, C., Trossman, D., Verdy, A., Wang, O., & Zhang, H. Putting it all together: Adding value to the global ocean and climate observing systems with complete self-consistent ocean state and parameter estimates. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6 (2019):55, doi:10.3389/fmars.2019.00055.
    Description: In 1999, the consortium on Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) set out to synthesize the hydrographic data collected by the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) and the satellite sea surface height measurements into a complete and coherent description of the ocean, afforded by an ocean general circulation model. Twenty years later, the versatility of ECCO's estimation framework enables the production of global and regional ocean and sea-ice state estimates, that incorporate not only the initial suite of data and its successors, but nearly all data streams available today. New observations include measurements from Argo floats, marine mammal-based hydrography, satellite retrievals of ocean bottom pressure and sea surface salinity, as well as ice-tethered profiled data in polar regions. The framework also produces improved estimates of uncertain inputs, including initial conditions, surface atmospheric state variables, and mixing parameters. The freely available state estimates and related efforts are property-conserving, allowing closed budget calculations that are a requisite to detect, quantify, and understand the evolution of climate-relevant signals, as mandated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) protocol. The solutions can be reproduced by users through provision of the underlying modeling and assimilation machinery. Regional efforts have spun off that offer increased spatial resolution to better resolve relevant processes. Emerging foci of ECCO are on a global sea level changes, in particular contributions from polar ice sheets, and the increased use of biogeochemical and ecosystem data to constrain global cycles of carbon, nitrogen and oxygen. Challenges in the coming decade include provision of uncertainties, informing observing system design, globally increased resolution, and moving toward a coupled Earth system estimation with consistent momentum, heat and freshwater fluxes between the ocean, atmosphere, cryosphere and land.
    Description: Major support for ECCO is provided by NASA's Physical Oceanography program via a contract to JPL/Caltech, with additional support through NASA's Modeling, Analysis and Prediction program, the Cryosphere Science program, and the Computational Modeling and Cyberinfrastructure program. Supplemental funding was obtained throughout the years via standard grants to individual team members from NSF, NOAA, and ONR.
    Keywords: ECCO ; Global ocean inverse modeling ; Optimal state and parameter estimation ; Adjoint method ; Ocean observations ; Coupled Earth system data assimilation ; Ocean reanalysis ; Global ocean circulation
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Little, C. M., Hu, A., Hughes, C. W., McCarthy, G. D., Piecuch, C. G., Ponte, R. M., & Thomas, M. D. The relationship between U.S. East Coast sea level and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: a review. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 124(9), (2019): 6435-6458, doi:10.1029/2019JC015152.
    Description: Scientific and societal interest in the relationship between the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and U.S. East Coast sea level has intensified over the past decade, largely due to (1) projected, and potentially ongoing, enhancement of sea level rise associated with AMOC weakening and (2) the potential for observations of U.S. East Coast sea level to inform reconstructions of North Atlantic circulation and climate. These implications have inspired a wealth of model‐ and observation‐based analyses. Here, we review this research, finding consistent support in numerical models for an antiphase relationship between AMOC strength and dynamic sea level. However, simulations exhibit substantial along‐coast and intermodel differences in the amplitude of AMOC‐associated dynamic sea level variability. Observational analyses focusing on shorter (generally less than decadal) timescales show robust relationships between some components of the North Atlantic large‐scale circulation and coastal sea level variability, but the causal relationships between different observational metrics, AMOC, and sea level are often unclear. We highlight the importance of existing and future research seeking to understand relationships between AMOC and its component currents, the role of ageostrophic processes near the coast, and the interplay of local and remote forcing. Such research will help reconcile the results of different numerical simulations with each other and with observations, inform the physical origins of covariability, and reveal the sensitivity of scaling relationships to forcing, timescale, and model representation. This information will, in turn, provide a more complete characterization of uncertainty in relevant relationships, leading to more robust reconstructions and projections.
    Description: The authors acknowledge funding support from NSF Grant OCE‐1805029 (C. M. L.) and NASA Contract NNH16CT01C (C. M. L. and R. M. P.), the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling Program of the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Biological & Environmental Research Cooperative Agreement DE‐FC02‐97ER62402 (A. H.), Natural Environment Research Council NE/K012789/1 (C. W. H.), Irish Marine Institute Project A4 PBA/CC/18/01 (G. D. M.), and NSF Awards OCE‐1558966 and OCE‐1834739 (C. G. P.). The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by National Science Foundation. The authors thank the two reviewers for their comments, and CLIVAR and the U.S. AMOC Science Team for inspiration and patience. All CMIP5 data used in Figures 4-6 are available at http://pcmdi9.llnl.gov/ website; the AMOC strength fields were digitized from Chen et al. (2018, supporting information Figure S3).
    Keywords: Sea level ; AMOC ; United States ; Coastal ; Climate model ; Review
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 124 (2019): 7575-7590, doi: 10.1029/2019JC015339.
    Description: Satellite altimetry reveals substantial decadal variability in sea level 𝜁 across the tropical Pacific during 1993–2015. An ocean state estimate that faithfully reproduces the observations is used to elucidate the origin of these low-frequency tropical Pacific 𝜁 variations. Analysis of the hydrostatic equation reveals that recent decadal 𝜁 changes in the tropical Pacific are mainly hermosteric in nature, related to changes in upper-ocean heat content. A forcing experiment performed with the numerical model suggests that anomalous wind stress was an important driver of the relevant heat storage and thermosteric variation. Closed budget diagnostics further clarify that the wind-stress-related thermosteric 𝜁 variation resulted from the joint actions of large-scale ocean advection and local surface heat flux, such that advection controlled the budget over shorter, intraseasonal to interannual time scales, and local surface heat flux became increasingly influential at longer decadal periods. In particular, local surface heat flux was important in contributing to a recent reversal of decadal 𝜁 trends in the tropical Pacific. Contributions from local surface heat flux partly reflect damping latent heat flux tied to wind-stress-driven sea-surface-temperature variations.
    Description: This work was supported by NSF Awards OCE‐1558966 and OCE‐1834739. Support of the ECCO project by the NASA Physical Oceanography, Cryospheric Science, and Modeling, Analysis and Prediction programs is also acknowledged. We thank Ou Wang (NASA JPL) for performing the forcing perturbation experiment. Comments from two anonymous reviewers were helpful. Altimetry observations used in Figures 1 and 2 were downloaded from CSIRO (http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_data_cmar.html). ECCOv4 output is available on the group website (https://ecco.jpl.nasa.gov/).
    Description: 2020-04-30
    Keywords: Sea‐level change ; Sea‐level variability ; Decadal variability ; Tropical Pacific ; State estimation
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Reviews of Geophysics 58(3), (2020): e2019RG000672, doi:10.1029/2019RG000672.
    Description: Global sea level provides an important indicator of the state of the warming climate, but changes in regional sea level are most relevant for coastal communities around the world. With improvements to the sea‐level observing system, the knowledge of regional sea‐level change has advanced dramatically in recent years. Satellite measurements coupled with in situ observations have allowed for comprehensive study and improved understanding of the diverse set of drivers that lead to variations in sea level in space and time. Despite the advances, gaps in the understanding of contemporary sea‐level change remain and inhibit the ability to predict how the relevant processes may lead to future change. These gaps arise in part due to the complexity of the linkages between the drivers of sea‐level change. Here we review the individual processes which lead to sea‐level change and then describe how they combine and vary regionally. The intent of the paper is to provide an overview of the current state of understanding of the processes that cause regional sea‐level change and to identify and discuss limitations and uncertainty in our understanding of these processes. Areas where the lack of understanding or gaps in knowledge inhibit the ability to provide the needed information for comprehensive planning efforts are of particular focus. Finally, a goal of this paper is to highlight the role of the expanded sea‐level observation network—particularly as related to satellite observations—in the improved scientific understanding of the contributors to regional sea‐level change.
    Description: The research was carried out in part at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. The authors acknowledge support from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Grants 80NSSC17K0565, 80NSSC170567, 80NSSC17K0566, 80NSSC17K0564, and NNX17AB27G. A. A. acknowledges support under GRACE/GRACEFO Science Team Grant (NNH15ZDA001N‐GRACE). T. W. acknowledges support by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) under the New (Early Career) Investigator Program in Earth Science (Grant: 80NSSC18K0743). C. G. P was supported by the J. Lamar Worzel Assistant Scientist Fund and the Penzance Endowed Fund in Support of Assistant Scientists at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.
    Keywords: Sea level ; Satellite observations ; Remote sensing
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Chandanpurkar, H. A., Lee, T., Wang, X., Zhang, H., Fournier, S., Fenty, I., Fukumori, I., Menemenlis, D., Piecuch, C. G., Reager, J. T., Wang, O., & Worden, J. Influence of nonseasonal river discharge on sea surface salinity and height. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 14(2), (2022): e2021MS002715, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002715.
    Description: River discharge influences ocean dynamics and biogeochemistry. Due to the lack of a systematic, up-to-date global measurement network for river discharge, global ocean models typically use seasonal discharge climatology as forcing. This compromises the simulated nonseasonal variation (the deviation from seasonal climatology) of the ocean near river plumes and undermines their usefulness for interdisciplinary research. Recently, a reanalysis-based daily varying global discharge data set was developed, providing the first opportunity to quantify nonseasonal discharge effects on global ocean models. Here we use this data set to force a global ocean model for the 1992–2017 period. We contrast this experiment with another experiment (with identical atmospheric forcings) forced by seasonal climatology from the same discharge data set to isolate nonseasonal discharge effects, focusing on sea surface salinity (SSS) and sea surface height (SSH). Near major river mouths, nonseasonal discharge causes standard deviations in SSS (SSH) of 1.3–3 practical salinity unit (1–2.7 cm). The inclusion of nonseasonal discharge results in notable improvement of model SSS against satellite SSS near most of the tropical-to-midlatitude river mouths and minor improvement of model SSH against satellite or in-situ SSH near some of the river mouths. SSH changes associated with nonseasonal discharge can be explained by salinity effects on halosteric height and estimated accurately through the associated SSS changes. A recent theory predicting river discharge impact on SSH is found to perform reasonably well overall but underestimates the impact on SSH around the global ocean and has limited skill when applied to rivers near the equator and in the Arctic Ocean.
    Description: This research was carried out in part at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NM0018D0004) with support from the Physical Oceanography (PO) and Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction (MAP) Programs. High-end computing resources for the numerical simulation were provided by the NASA Advanced Supercomputing Division at the Ames Research Center.
    Keywords: River discharge ; Sea surface salinity ; Sea surface height
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Gehrels, W. R., Dangendorf, S., Barlow, N. L. M., Saher, M. H., Long, A. J., Woodworth, P. L., Piecuch, C. G., & Berk, K. A preindustrial sea-level rise hotspot along the Atlantic Coast of North America. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(4), (2020): e2019GL085814, doi:10.1029/2019GL085814.
    Description: The Atlantic coast of North America north of Cape Hatteras has been proposed as a “hotspot” of late 20th century sea‐level rise. Here we test, using salt‐marsh proxy sea‐level records, if this coast experienced enhanced sea‐level rise over earlier multidecadal‐centennial periods. While we find in agreement with previous studies that 20th century rates of sea‐level change were higher compared to rates during preceding centuries, rates of 18th century sea‐level rise were only slightly lower, suggesting that the “hotspot” is a reoccurring feature for at least three centuries. Proxy sea‐level records from North America (Iceland) are negatively (positively) correlated with centennial changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation. They are consistent with sea‐level “fingerprints” of Arctic ice melt, and we therefore hypothesize that sea‐level fluctuations are related to changes in Arctic land‐ice mass. Predictions of future sea‐level rise should take into account these long‐term fluctuating rates of natural sea‐level change.
    Description: This work is funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (grant NE/G003440/1). All radiocarbon dating was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council Radiocarbon Facility (allocations 1490.0810, 1566.0511, 1604.0112). Mark Wood assisted with fieldwork. Rob Scaife analyzed pollen data for core SN‐3.3. Sönke Dangendorf and Kevin Berk acknowledge the University of Siegen for their support within the PEPSEA project. Christopher Piecuch was supported by National Science Foundation awards OCE‐1558966 and OCE‐1834739. We thank project members Miguel Ángel Morales Maqueda, Chris Hughes, Vassil Roussenov and Ric Williams for valuable discussions. We are grateful to the International Space Science Institute (ISSI; Bern, Switzerland) for support of the International Team “Towards a unified Sea Level Record”. Data used in this paper are freely available online (https://www.doi.org/10/dgvq).
    Keywords: Sea level ; Late Holocene ; Common Era ; Climate ; Ocean
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Schloesser, F., Thompson, P. R., & Piecuch, C. G. Meridional asymmetry in recent decadal sea-level trends in the subtropical Pacific Ocean. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(6), (2021): e2020GL091959, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091959.
    Description: Recent sea surface height (SSH) trends in the South Pacific are substantially greater than trends in the North Pacific. Here, we use the Estimating the Climate and Circulation of the Ocean Version 4 Release 4 ocean state estimate and the Ocean Reanalysis System 5 to identify the forcing and mechanisms underlying that meridional asymmetry during 2005–2015. Thermosteric contributions dominate the spatial structure in Pacific SSH trends, but contributions from local surface heat fluxes are small. Wind stress trends drive a spin-up of the South Pacific subtropical gyre and a northward shift of the North Pacific subtropical gyre. A reduced gravity model forced with reanalysis winds qualitatively reproduces the meridional seesaw in sea level, suggesting that asymmetric trends in subtropical wind stress drive a cross-equatorial heat transport. A reversal in forcing associated with this process could impact near-term rates of coastal sea-level change, particularly in Pacific Island communities.
    Description: F. Schloesser and P. R. Thompson were supported by NASA grant 80NSSC17K0564 and NSF grant 1558980. C. G. Piecuch was supported by the NASA Sea Level Change Team (grant 80NSSC20K1241).
    Keywords: Pacific heat content trends ; Pacific sea level trends ; Thermosteric sea level ; Wind driven circulation
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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